My math-based software picks.

[HighVoltage]

Are you drunk, chubber? Too much 4th-of-July beer?

The record is 4-5. Nice Angels comeback. If not, it was going to be a BAD day.

[chubber911]

My mistake. Thanks for pointing that out. Tomorrow's picks are complete.

Picks for July 5:

Texas Rangers *4 (+114)
Reds *3 (+147)
Giants *3 (-104)
White Sox *2 (+109)
Orioles *2 (+160)
Padres *1 (+150)
Tigers *1 (+132)

[chubber911]

I got spanked tonight. Don't really want to do the math for the games yet, but 1-6. Only pick that won was my *4 Rangers game. But hey, then again it's possible to lose 6 coinflips in a row.

I'm thinking my plans for the week will be to record my *1 picks, but not play them, and then play only the *2, *3, and *4, but downgrade their play to 1, 2, and 3 units each. I'm thinking this approach is a little better than steamrolling my bankroll into some picks that may be questionable.

[Chi_archie]

Rangers pick was your strongest.... and it won, maybe think of reducing the number of plays you make...... I love your "dog" loving tendencies though... GL tomorrow

[chubber911]

I think I'm not leaving my system enough room for error, and this could be what makes some bets questionable. Yes, my program estimates a team's chance of winning the game, but perhaps it can only be accurate to +/-4% or something to that effect. For my 4* wagers, adjustments in the teams winning % by a few points in the wrong direction still leaves them as a good wager.

I think an adjustment I'm going to make is to show not just wager prediction, but also the prediction if the teams actual winning % is -1, -2, -3, and +1, +2, +3, to show how volatile the wager is.

[EXhoosier10]

What's goin on here Chubber? I was liking your 2+ unit picks. Has the new update messed with things a little bit?

[chubber911]

No, I'm still making my picks, however, I'm constantly revising my program in an attempt to make it more accurate. I didn't want to be posting picks just yet, since my program could be a little different from day to day. When I'm satisfied that there are no more major changes in the formulas, I'm going to restart my project on here.

I've also made the program extremely user friendly. To run it, you really don't even have to know what you're doing. Just enter the money line odds, run line odds, and over/under total. Then it's set up to screen scrape mlb.com for the stats and it does everything else itself!

I expect in a couple weeks that I'll be satisfied with the work, and I'll start a 2.0 thread.