MLB - Thursday, 7/12/18

[LT Profits]

3 MLB Plays Thursday

Athletics +181 (Heritage)
Nationals / Mets UNDER 6.5 +110 (Heritage)
Dodgers / Padres UNDER 7.5 +100 (Heritage)


YTD: 263-269-13, +18.22

[Chi_archie]

good luck

[cjpenn3]

Curious what you show for the side and pitching matchups for the Phillies/O's and Dbacks/Rockies? Thanks

[44 Mag]

Charlie Morton due for regression or what ????

[Civerus]

Nice day yesterday, get em again!

[LT Profits]

Curious what you show for the side and pitching matchups for the Phillies/O's and Dbacks/Rockies? Thanks

Phillies 53% (-113)
Both starters about equally above average by around 10%.

D-Backs 56% (-128)
Model loves Arizona as real line is close to a Pick. Personally I hate large variances and another reason I am staying away is Ray health concerns (which probably accounts for weird line). Ray rates about 12% above average (assuming full health), Freeland right around average.

[LT Profits]

Charlie Morton due for regression or what ????

Actually Morton has pitched in line with his metrics this year as he has good 3.05 xFIP. Play has more to do with Oakland still being seemingly underrated, I only get Houston 61% (-156).

[ikid2groove415]

Mourning LT - Oakland is very HOT- billy have done it again -

[Regul8er]

Phillies 53% (-113)
Both starters about equally above average by around 10%.

D-Backs 56% (-128)
Model loves Arizona as real line is close to a Pick. Personally I hate large variances and another reason I am staying away is Ray health concerns (which probably accounts for weird line). Ray rates about 12% above average (assuming full health), Freeland right around average.

I like this pitching matchup, and would generally be all over the under. But my bookie screwed with my lines, mostly because Ive been torching him on unders the last few days. I can get Over 10 at -110 right now.....which is -185 on 5d currently. That's an 75 cent difference, feel like I have to take Over just because.

[LT Profits]

I like this pitching matchup, and would generally be all over the under. But my bookie screwed with my lines, mostly because Ive been torching him on unders the last few days. I can get Over 10 at -110 right now.....which is -185 on 5d currently. That's an 75 cent difference, feel like I have to take Over just because.

FWIW, I have Colorado total at 11.4

[44 Mag]

Actually Morton has pitched in line with his metrics this year as he has good 3.05 xFIP. Play has more to do with Oakland still being seemingly underrated, I only get Houston 61% (-156).

I didn't even notice you had played Oakland.

[ChocMilk23]

Ill take Oakland for some early action

[bballs84]

Caution on my A’s.. Need to start keeping track but have been fading pitchers coming off DL all year and has been hitting at a high %.. You ever keep track of this LT? Like I said need to start charting this stat.. Would say hitting at 75% clip this year.. Cahill older and has been on the shelf.. BOL with your plays

[Brian Fallon]

Great job yesterday - again LT! LEGGO!

[KDF500]

Thoughts on O\U on Astros tilt?

BTW great work pal!

[flakeandbake]

I would only bet Athletics today if the line closed below +175

That was the case and line movement with the 4 of last 5 games they won. All reverse line movement except the night Verlander pitched

[LT Profits]

Thoughts on O\U on Astros tilt?

BTW great work pal!

I get 8.5, probably a pass. Yes, line is trending toward 7.5, but I suspect Over would be juiced if it hits that number.

[bballs84]

Caution on my A’s.. Need to start keeping track but have been fading pitchers coming off DL all year and has been hitting at a high %.. You ever keep track of this LT? Like I said need to start charting this stat.. Would say hitting at 75% clip this year.. Cahill older and has been on the shelf.. BOL with your plays

Only 3 2/3 for Cahill

[bballs84]

Another brilliant performance by As BP

[LT Profits]

Looks like +20 cracked!

[MontrealCrw]

Looks like +20 cracked!

Finally
My man
Congrats

[jjgold]

Tremendous