MLB - Thursday, 6/7/18

44 Mag · 06-07-18, 07:09 AM

What's the story with this guy for STL, Miles Mikolas ??? I've never heard of him until a few weeks ago. A regression candidate, or for real???

grease lightnin · 06-07-18, 07:14 AM

Orioles again? Do you have your record on O’s bets this season, LT?

LT Profits · 06-07-18, 07:15 AM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

What's the story with this guy for STL, Miles Mikolas ??? I've never heard of him until a few weeks ago. A regression candidate, or for real???

I kind of like him as I have him rated slightly above average. Still, I have Richards in same boat. will be curious to see what line opens up at.

As for your regression question, yes there can be some with a 3.38 xFIP vs. a 2.49 ERA, but that xFIP is still good,

LT Profits · 06-07-18, 07:18 AM

Originally posted by grease lightnin

Orioles again? Do you have your record on O’s bets this season, LT?

I will try and pull in a few minutes, but it would not mean anything since I model every game on its own merit. And this play has more to do with me hating the Blue Jays rotation, I think all of their starters rate lower than they are perceived.

LT Profits · 06-07-18, 07:19 AM

3 MLB Plays Thursday

3 MLB Plays Thursday

Dodgers / Pirates UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
Rockies / Reds UNDER 9 -105 (Heritage)
Orioles +138 (Heritage)

El Nino · 06-07-18, 07:20 AM

No Rangers?

grease lightnin · 06-07-18, 07:23 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I will try and pull in a few minutes, but it would not mean anything since I model every game on its own merit. And this play has more to do with me hating the Blue Jays rotation, I think all of their starters rate lower than they are perceived.

I know you model, not busting your chops, just curious.

I mean.... you’re .500 and up 18 units

LT Profits · 06-07-18, 07:26 AM

Originally posted by El Nino

No Rangers?

No. I have Houston 66% (-194). I am high on Cole and I still have Hamels rated below average, he shows a BUNCH of red regression flags (.254 BABIP, 84.6% strand rate, 4.22 xFIP).

LT Profits · 06-07-18, 08:34 AM

Originally posted by grease lightnin

Orioles again? Do you have your record on O’s bets this season, LT?

I have played Orioles on Money Line 20 times this season before today:

6-14, -4.36

grease lightnin · 06-07-18, 08:47 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I have played Orioles on Money Line 20 times this season before today:

6-14, -4.36

Pretty close to their season win percentage.

They are my team and I won’t fade them... but it seemed obvious to me that fading them would be a cash cow early on...

Just like riding them every game a few yrs back was a cash cow.

It seems like there are a couple MLB teams every year like this either way.

I know you model each game independently and my guess is these trends rarely show up in your picks.

Because it is a square way to bet, I guess, but it sure does seem profitable.

DigBick86 · 06-07-18, 08:52 AM

The problem with Orioles is that they cant score

DigBick86 · 06-07-18, 08:53 AM

But im tailing again we were just unlucky with Mariners yesterday

LT Profits · 06-07-18, 09:37 AM

Originally posted by DigBick86

But im tailing again we were just unlucky with Mariners yesterday

Worse luck with Phillies, losing on walk-off slam by Heyward.

DigBick86 · 06-07-18, 10:02 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Worse luck with Phillies, losing on walk-off slam by Heyward.

Thats true

LT Profits · 06-07-18, 10:37 AM

1 MLB Addition

4 MLB Plays Thursday

Dodgers / Pirates UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
Rockies / Reds UNDER 9 -105 (Heritage)
Orioles +138 (Heritage)
Astros / Rangers UNDER 9 -105 (Heritage)

LT Profits · 06-07-18, 11:21 AM

2 AFTERNOON MLB Additions

6 MLB Plays Thursday

Dodgers / Pirates UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
Rockies / Reds UNDER 9 -105 (Heritage)
Marlins +207 (Bookmaker)
Phillies / Cubs UNDER 9 +105 (Heritage)
Orioles +138 (Heritage)
Astros / Rangers UNDER 9 -105 (Heritage)

jz833 · 06-07-18, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

3 MLB Plays Thursday

Dodgers / Pirates UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
Rockies / Reds UNDER 9 -105 (Heritage)
Orioles +138 (Heritage)

I'm slamming the Rockies/Reds under...have that feeling

jjgold · 06-07-18, 11:34 AM

If you keep taking your Orioles LT you’ll be working the overnights at the UPS packaging center

LT Profits · 06-07-18, 01:31 PM

No Action on Pirates Under due to Dodgers late pitching change.

Conqueror · 06-07-18, 01:36 PM

Originally posted by DigBick86

The problem with Orioles is that they cant score

Exactly.

tripled83 · 06-07-18, 03:48 PM

Originally posted by jz833

I'm slamming the Rockies/Reds under...have that feeling

Score was 5-2 when I left Great American in the 7th. Get home and they’re still playing

jz833 · 06-07-18, 06:39 PM

Originally posted by tripled83

Score was 5-2 when I left Great American in the 7th. Get home and they’re still playing

Lol tell me about it...thought it was going to be a push smh

LT Profits · 06-07-18, 07:19 PM

Originally posted by jz833

Lol tell me about it...thought it was going to be a push smh

Lost the Push on wild pitch with two outs in the 9th!

jz833 · 06-07-18, 07:50 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Lost the Push on wild pitch with two outs in the 9th!

Lol exactly, I couldn't believe it

Trep · 06-07-18, 08:05 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Lost the Push on wild pitch with two outs in the 9th!

Technically two wild pitches

LT Profits · 06-07-18, 08:10 PM

Originally posted by Trep

Technically two wild pitches

Even better!

RavensFan2k3 · 06-07-18, 08:56 PM

Go O’s!

RavensFan2k3 · 06-07-18, 08:58 PM

Holy penetrate it was just 4-1, it’s now 4-4???

LT Profits · 06-07-18, 09:56 PM

And O's lose after taking 4-1 lead into bottom of 9th. It's a lovely day.

LT Profits · 06-07-18, 10:35 PM

Finished 2-3, moving on...

Regul8er · 06-07-18, 10:56 PM

Ya, the O's bullpen is a nightmare.......this stuff has been happening all year, so not totally out of the norm.

Just gotta move on.