Vegas Reverse Bait System.

JustFlipACoin · 06-26-09, 11:27 AM

hmmmm... Great system! 0-6, that can't be easy to do. lets try this again. todays picks coming soon.

Bluehorseshoe · 06-26-09, 11:30 AM

They double reverse baited you, those bastards.

JustFlipACoin · 06-26-09, 01:46 PM

1. CHC/CHW OVER 9.5
2. WSH/BAL OVER 9.5
3. MIN/STL UNDER 9
4. COL/OAK UNDER 8.5
5. NYY/NYM UNDER 8.5

There is no way Vegas pulls the "double reverse bait" on me again. LOL.

Going LARGE on NYY under.

GL... lets see how tonight goes.

JustFlipACoin · 06-27-09, 11:59 AM

todays picks are:
Min/Stl under 9
Bos win +35
det/hou under 9.5

3-8

JustFlipACoin · 06-28-09, 10:11 AM

3 for 3 yesterday, now the system is heating up! I will post todays picks soon.

6-8

JustFlipACoin · 06-28-09, 10:49 AM

Just a few plays again today.

CLE/CIN under 9.5
BAL/WAS over 10
MIN win +120

6-8

DJJimGreen · 06-28-09, 09:57 PM

*keeping an eye on this thread* looks like it's going in the right direction! What is this reverse bait system ?

JustFlipACoin · 06-29-09, 10:18 AM

todays picks are

Clev win
Tex over 10.5
min over 9
det under 9
hou under 7.5

basicly I look at the ERA and wips for the two teams and if they suggest the game should be high scoring but the line is low I'll take the over, same goes with the under.

JustFlipACoin · 06-29-09, 02:13 PM

here is an example...

The Rangers and Angels have starting pitchers with a WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) of 1.11 and 1.04. As well, the two pitchers ERA over the last 3 games is 2.6 and 4.8 adding to 7.4. I always add a run or two to come up with what is normally, a very accurate total for that game. In this case it would be 8.5 or 9. But the line is listed at 10.5, which in my belief is how the 'boys' in vegas fish the public to one side of a total that they believe is the loser. How can you not bet the under here looking at these stats, that are available for all the betting public to see? Did the 'boys' in vegas make a mistake? Not bloody likely! In my experience, the 'boys' in Vegas are right far more of the time then the betting public (fish). This theory isn't set in stone, but rather under 'investigation'... but I do believe I am on to something BIG here.

8-9

JustFlipACoin · 06-30-09, 12:37 PM

Didn't get my overs yesterday, but there were a ton of hits in both games. Counting the errors they had 20 and 21 hits, Should have had more runs scored. Lets see what today brings.

10-12

curious · 06-30-09, 01:49 PM

Originally posted by JustFlipACoin

here is an example...

The Rangers and Angels have starting pitchers with a WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) of 1.11 and 1.04. As well, the two pitchers ERA over the last 3 games is 2.6 and 4.8 adding to 7.4. I always add a run or two to come up with what is normally, a very accurate total for that game. In this case it would be 8.5 or 9. But the line is listed at 10.5, which in my belief is how the 'boys' in vegas fish the public to one side of a total that they believe is the loser. How can you not bet the under here looking at these stats, that are available for all the betting public to see? Did the 'boys' in vegas make a mistake? Not bloody likely! In my experience, the 'boys' in Vegas are right far more of the time then the betting public (fish). This theory isn't set in stone, but rather under 'investigation'... but I do believe I am on to something BIG here.

8-9

I think you should also look at bases per run of the opposing team. Doesn't do you much good if a pitcher allows lots of base runners if the opposing team has a high bases per run average.

I would say that what you want is a high WHIP combined with a low bases per run.

And, I wouldn't use the team's bases per run average, I would use the starting lineup's bases per run.

JustFlipACoin · 07-06-09, 12:35 PM

Ok todays picks are

KC/DET under 9
CIN/PHI under 9
TEX/LAA under 8.5
FLA/SF under 8

10-12

Chi_archie · 07-06-09, 12:51 PM

you are only going off pitcher data? not ballpark, opposing team's hitting, home plate umpire, weather?

JustFlipACoin · 07-06-09, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by Chi_archie

you are only going off pitcher data? not ballpark, opposing team's hitting, home plate umpire, weather?

Yes thats right, only pitchers data.

DJJimGreen · 10-03-09, 05:15 PM

*touching base* I wonder how this ended up..