Mr. Crumbs Leans for Wednesday 6/24/09

[cocknocker]

For today I like

Pirates-123
Braves+122
Rockies+114



Starting pitchers' WHIP last 3 games

CLE 1.45
PIT 1.45

Advantage PUSH

Power ranking

CLE+139
PIT-139

Line

CLE+119
PIT-127

Advantage Pirates as with a close consensus (Cleveland has a slight edge with bettors of 53-47%) the line has stayed firm and in some cases has risen a bit

Batting average last 3 games

CLE .216
PIT .276

Advantage Pirates

Slugging% last 3 games

CLE .396
PIT .438

Advantage Pirates

Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

CLE 1.545
PIT 1.393

Advantage Pirates

My pick: Pirates-128

**************************************** *******

Starters WHIP last 3 games

NYY 1.44
ATL 1.18

Advantage Braves

Power ranking

NYY-166 (whatever)
ATL+166

Line

NYY-130
ATL+122

Advantage Braves. With only 29% of bettors on their side, the line has remained firm, which I love!

Batting average last 3 games

NYY .181 (WOW!)
ATL .296

Advantage Braves HEAVY

Slugging% last 3 games

NYY .245
ATL .418

Advantage Braves HEAVY

Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

NYY 0.721
ATL 0.694

Advantage Braves

My pick: Braves+120

**************************************** ********

Starting pitcher WHIP last 3 games

COL 1.25
LAA 1.45

Advantage Rockies

Power ranking

COL+118
LAA-118

Line

COL+116
LAA-124

Advantage PUSH There is a 52% to 48% consensus (LAA has the slight lead in consensus) so the line has stayed firm

Batting average last 3 games

COL .309
LAA .191

Advantage Rockies HEAVY

Slugging % last 3 games

COL .546 (Whoa!)
LAA .287

Advantage Rockies HEAVY

Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

COL 0.164
LAA 1.319

Advantage Rockies

My pick: Rockies+116

[Biff Webster]

What are you thoughts on Detroit?

[jellobiafra]

I'm playing CWS -105, the under 9 in that game, and FLA -135.

Also parlayed BOS -170 and HOU -168. I know some people are going to be on KC today. It's a mistake. Don't fade Oswalt now. It's fine to do early in the season, but once June rolls around it is time to hop on his back or get the fvck out of the way.

Good luck all!

[RoagBettor]

jello, you are right on about Oswalt. The only thing that concerns me is can the Astros score the 2-3 runs they'll need to win.

[jellobiafra]

You couldn't ask for a better matchup for Roy, imo. KC is throwing a gas can out there and thier linup is slumping. I know we're going to see some people calling KC today, but I think HOU is one of the strongest plays this season tonight. I like it so much, I went ahead a laid the juice and bet them straight to win a unit (so as not to have BOS loseand blow the parlay). And I basically never bet more than -140. I bet a lot of favorites in the -120 to -140 range, but never this high. I love HOU tonight.

Of course I had to then back it up by betting BOS straight at -170 too, because I can't risk HOU losing and costing me two bets. So I'm going super square today guys. Wish me luck!

[cocknocker]

Detroit looks good Biff. I just can't go against Harden, because when he's on his game he's filthy. I know from experience as i watched him turn from phenom to ace out here in the Bay Area. And he is due for a correction. Porcello is one of my favorite young pitchers, and it is also very hard to go against him and the hot bats that the Tigers have right now. The Cubs bullpen has been a little better than the Tigers so I look for this game to be a carbon copy of wat happened yesterday. A tight game with a surprise ending that takes your breath away. That was one hell of a game last night. One of the best I've seen his season.

[Biff Webster]

I think I am going to play detroit and for some of your type of crumbs, Im going to play the RL for +170

[kmarinouofm]

CK Karayilian took the under 2.5 goals for spain vs usa.. game starts in 1.5 hours

just wanted to let everyone know..

[dudebrah]

Rockies line up to +130! Any change?

[suicidekings]

PHI @ TB, TB RL -1.5 (+125), 2u
- Garza will overmatch Blanton tonight solidly.
COL @ LAA, COL RRL -1.5 (+190), 1u
- For the reasons stated above by CK. Marquis on the road is a solid option, and the COL bats have been doing their job recently.

CHC (+115) @ DET, 1u
- Harden has been lights out on the road this season and coming off a beating by CLE, I have faith in him bouncing back tonight.

CLE (+119) @ PIT, 1u
- Pavano's good starts this year have been obscured by a couple of bad ones, and with back to back poor starts recently, this is a good spot for him to capitalize on PIT's 5 game losing streak.

STL @ NYM, Under 9.5 (-125), 1u

CIN @ TOR, TOR RL -1.5 (+160), 0.5u
- Straight up fading Bronson Arroyo.

[AMcBoarder]

I'm gonna follow you on Atlanda CK. I'm throwing Philly and LAD in the mix for a $100 3 teamer.
Phils +155
LAD +105
Atl +120
100 to pay out 1,150.50 at Red Rock Casino.
Mind you I'm an LA homer and spent 4 years in Philly. If Moyer can do it then Blanton sure has a chance especially on the road. GL all.

[wangichu]

suicide, we seem to wind up on a few of the same plays, i was looking at cleveland and the runline in tampa as i think garza is due for a gem, especilly with revenge of issue for tampa after losing in the world series.

nevertheless, it's all about nolasco baby. the marlins have been playing increasingly better ball and their arms have been coming around. Johnson has been hot all year, miller is starting to figure it out. And most importantly nolasco's last couple starts have looked indicative of his amazing second half last year. I'm jumping on florida's band wagon before they start making a run at the wild card or maybe even the east title. Furthermore, the series in philly was an anomoly, the O's blow on the road.

FLA -1.5

[kmarinouofm]

USA USA USA USA cashes in at +900 and karaylian's under 2.5 cashes..

[maddogmadden86]

a shaweet 3-0 day yesterday only game i like in the 7 o clock games is the fish with nolasco the kid is back enough said, also really tempted to play the sox nats over i think the sox could score 9 themselves again

[kmarinouofm]

ck love the smallball picks today...

rockies have the better pitcher and are hotter then hell right now.

You pretty much summed up the pitt game perfectly..and loosing 5 in a row they are due for a big big win .. their numbers don't support their outcome as of late.

the braves i think have the better pitcher up.. not overall.. but today kawakiami is better joba..i think joba will be good one day.. but today the braves have the advantage.. what has been amazing is how the braves have been showing up on defense lately.. due mainly to their pitching.. they have been stranding opposing runners like crazy last 14 chances with runners in scoring positions .. joba has never faced the braves..but i think they will get after him just like washington has.. but kawakiami improved to 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA in three interleague starts after his last outing

[djpremier36]

Here's what I got...

ATL +118...already stated above

ATL -1.5 +250...Searching for krumbs

CHW -118...Floyd is on fire, gonna ride his arm

OAK -118 (small)...Gimmie the youngster over the Cro-Magnom

[Raynor21]

Yeah, I also have the braves today. I also have phillies/rays on the over and a small 3 team parlay with boston, marlins and Astros

[Dexter]

(copied from last nights thread) Wed 6/24-

(1x) - nationals +1.5/+100 (A1)

(5x) - marlins -140 - nolasco has a 2.50/1.11 in his last 3 - berken a 10.68/1.88

[ragiche]

These are the teams i will be playing tonight.

COL ML (2x) Tailing CK.

ATL ML (2x) Tailing CK.

FLO RL (2x) Tailing Jello, Wang.

MIL ML (2x) My pick.

CHC 1st 5 innings (2x) My pick.

OAK RL (2x) My pick.

STL PK (2x) My pick.

GL tonight guys.

[showtime2000]

Holla, for tonight,

Atlanta (CK)
Chicago White Sox -117



GLA

[Dexter]

I'm playing CWS -105, the under 9 in that game, and FLA -135.

Also parlayed BOS -170 and HOU -168. I know some people are going to be on KC today. It's a mistake. Don't fade Oswalt now. It's fine to do early in the season, but once June rolls around it is time to hop on his back or get the fvck out of the way.

Good luck all!

in your pick 3 contest, are those all your plays or are some tailing (specifically during the 2-11 run)?

[Dexter]

2-0 Fish.....Please make this bet be an easy win. im in no mood to sweat this.

[ram1502]

Tonight I like the Braves, Rockies, Twins, and D'Backs. GL All.

Wow. The Jays hit 3 home runs in the bottom of the first off of Arroyo and score 5. Those boys are swingin some heavy bats.

[cocknocker]

What happened to Kawakami? Why am I looking at a reliever? WTF is going on?

[cocknocker]

It's only the 4th inning! Am I missing something? Why is Bobby Cox f*cking with my money?

[Minkus]

LOL

CK
i just booked Astros RL

what do u think?

[ram1502]

What happened to Kawakami? Why am I looking at a reliever? WTF is going on?

Joba line-drived him in the neck/collar bone to end the 3rd inning. And he couldn't come back in.

[jasont]

The Colorado play must be based solely on matchups, because the line movements don't make this a solid play.

[The_Kid]

2-0 Fish.....Please make this bet be an easy win. im in no mood to sweat this.

If it's a save situation, you won't have to watch Lindstrom give up five consecutive hits because he's on the DL.

[maddogmadden86]

nolasco can go the distance for us

[The_Kid]

nolasco can go the distance for us

Bonifacio with an error to let a run score. Let's go, Fish! Nolasco needs to get out of this jam.

Now, I see this Atlanta reliever is burning my money away.

[Dexter]

If it's a save situation, you won't have to watch Lindstrom give up five consecutive hits because he's on the DL.

lindstrom is as bad as it gets

nolasco can go the distance for us

no more - bonafico made an error and allowed the inning to extend.

[Panekkkk]

Kawakami injured his neck.

[kmarinouofm]

yeah the atlanta game is gonna cost us.. i can't believe joba is gonna win this one the only way he can.. taking out the opposing pitcher himself...

[kmarinouofm]

shit helms thrown out at home... could have been 2 to 4 fish.. i got that team over 4 as well as the fish