Mr. Crumbs Leans for Tuesday 6/23/09

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  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #1
    Mr. Crumbs Leans for Tuesday 6/23/09
    Okay for today's small ball action I like the following games

    Nats+115 (or more by gametime-this line will rise for me)
    Atlanta-108
    Reds+137
    Mariners-133
    A's/Giants under 7 -115
    O's-108



    Starters WHIP last 3 games

    BOS 1.38
    WAS 0.81

    Advantage Nats

    Power ranking

    BOS-103
    WAS+103

    Line

    BOS-127
    WAS+119

    Advantage Nats as they have only 8% of bettors on their side right now and the line is steady.

    Hitting average last 3 games

    BOS .209
    WAS .289

    Advantage Nats

    Slugging% last 3 games

    BOS .396
    WAS .404

    Advantage Nats

    Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

    BOS 1.831
    WAS 1.206

    Advantage Nats

    My pick: Nats+115 or more. I will wait on this one as the public will drive the line up despite the fact that the Nats have all of the advantages.

    **************************************** ******

    Startes WHIP last 3 games

    CIN 1.38
    TOR 1.50

    Advantage Cincy

    Power ranking

    CIN+151
    TOR-151

    Line

    CIN+137
    TOR-145

    Advantage Cincy. The reasons will be obvious by the time I finish my homework.

    Batting Average last 3 games

    CIN .307
    TOR .236

    Advantage Cincy

    Slugging% last 3 games

    CIN .475
    TOR .309

    Advantage Cincy

    Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

    CIN 1.341
    TOR 1.802

    Advantage Cincy

    My pick: Red Leggins+137. The line may even go up with the ignorance of the public

    **************************************** ****

    Starters WHIP last 3 games

    NYY 2.03 (WOW!)
    ATL 1.58

    Advantage Braves HEAVY

    Power ranking

    NYY+111
    ATL-111

    Line

    NYY+100
    ATL-108

    Advantage Braves HEAVY as with only 25% of bettors on their side, the line has already gone up to as high as Atlanta-119 on some books.

    Hitting average last 3 games

    NYY .257
    ATL .294

    Advantage Braves

    Slugging % last 3 games

    NYY .366
    ATL .392

    Advantage Braves

    Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

    NYY 0.693
    ATL 0.492

    Advantage Braves

    My pick: Braves-108, although you won't see that number anymore

    **************************************** *****

    Starters WHIP last 3 games

    SDG 2.00 (WOW!)
    SEA 0.98

    Advantage Mariners HEAVY

    Power raning

    SDG+115
    SEA-115

    Line

    SDG+127
    SEA-135

    Advantage Seattle, as with a minority among bettors (45%), the line went up from -135 to -145 on some books already.

    Batting average last 3 games

    SDG .237
    SEA .340

    Advantage Mariners

    Slugging% last 3 games

    SDG .424
    SEA .485

    Advantage Mariners

    Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

    SDG 1.417
    SEA 0.962

    Advantage Seattle

    My pick: Seattle-133. The line is almost right at the limit for what i will play a game for, so of course this one BETTER do right!


    *************************************


    Starte WHIP last 3 games

    SFO 0.95
    OAK 0.93

    Advantage UNDER as neither pitcher has a WHIP over 1 (WOW!)

    Batting averages last 3 games

    SFO .194
    OAK .220

    Advantage UNDER as neither team is hitting above .300

    Slugging% last 3 games

    SFO .337
    OAK .350

    Advantage UNDER as the combined average is less than .350

    Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

    SFO 0.694
    OAK 0.857

    Advantage UNDER as neither team has a bullpen WHIP of over 1.000

    My pick: A's/Giants under 7


    *************************************

    Starters' WHIP last 3 games

    BAL 1.54
    FLA 1.33

    Advantage Marlins

    Power ranking

    BAL-117
    FLA+117

    Line

    BAL+102
    FLA -110

    Advantage Baltimore as the O's made the line move in their direction with only 37% of bettors on their side

    Hitting average last 3 games

    BAL .321
    FLA .185

    Advantage O's HEAVY

    Slugging% last 3 games

    BAL .461
    FLA .443

    Advantage O's

    Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

    BAL 0.857
    FLA 1.400

    Advantage O's

    My pick: O's-108 and the kid Uehara
  • JumpoffJoeBeezy
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 12-17-08
    • 928

    #2
    I like Mariners -1.5..

    Also like Marlins -110, and Red Birds -115.
    Comment
    • The_Kid
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 02-09-08
      • 5049

      #3
      CK, you think the Cubbies offense will fare better now that they have to take a flight from Atlanta to Detroit in less than 24 hours?

      I think the UNDER 8.5 is a solid play. Big Z has done well since coming off the DL and Jackson has pitched well all year.
      Comment
      • overdose.fR
        Restricted User
        • 02-11-09
        • 72

        #4
        hi CK , not really sure if i understand the logics behind atlanta game: u say that with only 24% on them the line went down from -108 to -118; shouldn't it go down?
        Comment
        • overdose.fR
          Restricted User
          • 02-11-09
          • 72

          #5
          i mean UP
          Comment
          • cocknocker
            Restricted User
            • 11-06-08
            • 8001

            #6
            I meant what i said overdose. And The Kid... yes they will pick it up. Zambrano at that price is a steal. He has a WHIP of 0.97 over his last 3 performances. he will go deep into the game as well. Jackson has been lights out this year to be sure. But at this price I would always pick Zambrano. The Cubs gain a bat, The Kid because this game is played in a American League park. The Tigers are gonna catch the Cubs on a carry-over, and that means that they will pick it up. Besides, wherein do you see that the Cubs offense was bad?Certainly not yesterday. They still out hit the Braves collecting 10 hits while not scoring. Those bats are hot despite not so good results yesterday. The Cubbies will get it done
            Comment
            • JumpoffJoeBeezy
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 12-17-08
              • 928

              #7
              I heard Magglio Ordonez is going to be out of the lineup tomorrow. I can't confirm it, but I did hear it..
              Comment
              • The_Kid
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 02-09-08
                • 5049

                #8
                Originally posted by cocknocker
                I meant what i said overdose. And The Kid... yes they will pick it up. Zambrano at that price is a steal. He has a WHIP of 0.97 over his last 3 performances. he will go deep into the game as well. Jackson has been lights out this year to be sure. But at this price I would always pick Zambrano. The Cubs gain a bat, The Kid because this game is played in a American League park. The Tigers are gonna catch the Cubs on a carry-over, and that means that they will pick it up. Besides, wherein do you see that the Cubs offense was bad?Certainly not yesterday. They still out hit the Braves collecting 10 hits while not scoring. Those bats are hot despite not so good results yesterday. The Cubbies will get it done
                True, they do gain a bat in Zambrano because it is at Detroit. I just looked at their past couple games and they have been hitting the ball pretty well. Derrek Lee seems to have rediscovered his power stroke too. Thanks for your insight on this one.

                Originally posted by JumpoffJoeBeezy
                I heard Magglio Ordonez is going to be out of the lineup tomorrow. I can't confirm it, but I did hear it..
                I think Leyland will announce if he's in the lineup before gametime.
                Comment
                • JustFlipACoin
                  SBR Hustler
                  • 05-21-09
                  • 92

                  #9
                  thanks for the great picks CK, you have been red hot the last couple of days.
                  Comment
                  • jellobiafra
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 03-08-09
                    • 6291

                    #10
                    I am ice cold right now, but I'm still gonna fire away at this. I got:


                    ATL -118 (Hanson is starting to "get it" and Wang is terrible)

                    KC -132 (Greinke to stop a 5 game skid vs Ortiz who is not good)

                    ARZ -132 (Scherzer on fire vs Harrison who has struggled)

                    SFG-112 (Lincecum at this price...can't pass it up)


                    I also like the Nats and might add it later. Like you said, the price should get better on that one if we wait. The Phillies look good too maybe, good team on a long skid. Great value at +153. Just don't know about Moyer vs Price.

                    Good luck all!
                    Comment
                    • Jimbo42
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-04-09
                      • 2076

                      #11
                      What up!

                      Booked:

                      St. Louis Cardinals -115
                      St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 +145

                      Seattle -1.5 +150

                      GL
                      Comment
                      • jellobiafra
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 03-08-09
                        • 6291

                        #12
                        Originally posted by jellobiafra
                        I am ice cold right now, but I'm still gonna fire away at this. I got:


                        ATL -118 (Hanson is starting to "get it" and Wang is terrible)

                        KC -132 (Greinke to stop a 5 game skid vs Ortiz who is not good)

                        ARZ -132 (Scherzer on fire vs Harrison who has struggled)

                        SFG-112 (Lincecum at this price...can't pass it up)

                        I just added:


                        CHC/DET under 8 -105

                        CWS -111



                        I'll also be playing whatever the ATM's have for WNBA tonight.

                        I'm on tilt!! Ahhhh!!!
                        Comment
                        • cocknocker
                          Restricted User
                          • 11-06-08
                          • 8001

                          #13
                          Okay I had to bag the Cubs play after the stats were made available to me. Turns out that they only had the advantage at the pitching position and that's about it. I instead was able to come up with some juicy tidbits for the A's and Giants game later on this evening, and I like the under 7 in that game as the play for the under has all of the advantages that I look for including movement!
                          Comment
                          • Panekkkk
                            SBR MVP
                            • 03-12-09
                            • 2430

                            #14
                            Those on the Braves, Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson questionable for tonight's game. Leaning towards the under.

                            Comment
                            • jellobiafra
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 03-08-09
                              • 6291

                              #15
                              Fvck Yunel Escobar AND Kelly Johnson. I'll take Martin Prado over Johnson right now anyway. And I can't stand Escobar. Dumbest player in the league, imo. If he's not running the Braves out of an inning then he's throwing the ball into the 1st base dugout.
                              Comment
                              • Panekkkk
                                SBR MVP
                                • 03-12-09
                                • 2430

                                #16
                                Originally posted by jellobiafra
                                Fvck Yunel Escobar AND Kelly Johnson. I'll take Martin Prado over Johnson right now anyway. And I can't stand Escobar. Dumbest player in the league, imo. If he's not running the Braves out of an inning then he's throwing the ball into the 1st base dugout.
                                Hah yah, I'm thinking this might actually help the Braves!
                                Comment
                                • MILEHIGHMONSTERS
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 02-12-09
                                  • 618

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by cocknocker
                                  I meant what i said overdose. And The Kid... yes they will pick it up. Zambrano at that price is a steal. He has a WHIP of 0.97 over his last 3 performances. he will go deep into the game as well. Jackson has been lights out this year to be sure. But at this price I would always pick Zambrano. The Cubs gain a bat, The Kid because this game is played in a American League park. The Tigers are gonna catch the Cubs on a carry-over, and that means that they will pick it up. Besides, wherein do you see that the Cubs offense was bad?Certainly not yesterday. They still out hit the Braves collecting 10 hits while not scoring. Those bats are hot despite not so good results yesterday. The Cubbies will get it done
                                  Is that a good thing? They couldnt hit the broad side of a barn
                                  Comment
                                  • socrates01
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 05-17-09
                                    • 301

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by cocknocker
                                    Okay I had to bag the Cubs play after the stats were made available to me. Turns out that they only had the advantage at the pitching position and that's about it. I instead was able to come up with some juicy tidbits for the A's and Giants game later on this evening, and I like the under 7 in that game as the play for the under has all of the advantages that I look for including movement!
                                    Of your other four picks, which are heavy?
                                    Comment
                                    • InTheHole
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 04-28-08
                                      • 15243

                                      #19
                                      Good Luck with your selections this evening.
                                      Comment
                                      • cocknocker
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 11-06-08
                                        • 8001

                                        #20
                                        I had to add the O's to the mix after further review. They should have been favored in that game to begin with. The Marlins bats are cold right now and Miller has the penchant for getting lit up every now and then. With the O's having such hot bats, I don't think that they will cool off anytime soon
                                        Comment
                                        • cocknocker
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 11-06-08
                                          • 8001

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by socrates01
                                          Of your other four picks, which are heavy?
                                          Nothing HEAVY in baseball today. I have some WNBA selections that I will be playing HEAVY.
                                          Comment
                                          • cocknocker
                                            Restricted User
                                            • 11-06-08
                                            • 8001

                                            #22
                                            CHANGE OF PLAY ALERT


                                            I also was able to catch the Mariners at -133, so I didn't have to play the runline
                                            Comment
                                            • djpremier36
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 12-11-08
                                              • 3479

                                              #23
                                              4 game card for me...GL!

                                              BAL -106...summed up perfectly already by Cocknocker

                                              ATL -110 (first 5)...Same as above but I don't trust ATL's bullpen

                                              TEX/ARI under 9.5...TEX isn't hitting RHP's, ARI isn't hitting LHP's

                                              CLE/PIT under 9.5...pure contrarian play
                                              Comment
                                              • socrates01
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 05-17-09
                                                • 301

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by cocknocker
                                                Nothing HEAVY in baseball today. I have some WNBA selections that I will be playing HEAVY.
                                                Cool Man, let's do this Silver Stars! Thanks for clarifying
                                                Comment
                                                • G's pks
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 01-01-09
                                                  • 22251

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by cocknocker
                                                  Okay I had to bag the Cubs play after the stats were made available to me. Turns out that they only had the advantage at the pitching position and that's about it. I instead was able to come up with some juicy tidbits for the A's and Giants game later on this evening, and I like the under 7 in that game as the play for the under has all of the advantages that I look for including movement!
                                                  Not sure who wins the game...but my system gave me Detroit to at least win one within series...

                                                  Cubs team BA is 26th...lousy! But Zambrano is hard to bet against... Might pass on this series...not sure..
                                                  Comment
                                                  • BL
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 05-11-09
                                                    • 4070

                                                    #26
                                                    for me only 1 play today:

                                                    Mariners -1,5 +155
                                                    Comment
                                                    • The_Kid
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 02-09-08
                                                      • 5049

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by jellobiafra
                                                      CHC/DET under 8 -105
                                                      I got UNDER 8.5. GL, jello.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • cocknocker
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 11-06-08
                                                        • 8001

                                                        #28
                                                        There is a flood of smart money being thrown on the Pale Hose today, and the Cubs/Detroit under looks to be the call of the sharps
                                                        Comment
                                                        • obamaismyuncle
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 12-31-08
                                                          • 17801

                                                          #29
                                                          Anyone know why Milwaukee isn't favored more? Liriano sucks.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • kmarinouofm
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 01-26-09
                                                            • 8437

                                                            #30
                                                            i am not sure if the marlins are playing tonight fellas.. just wanted everyone to know.. huge storm just came in
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Joe Sharp
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 06-01-09
                                                              • 3011

                                                              #31
                                                              That storm may have something to do with the HUGE MOVEMENT on that total (Bal / FLA). Went from -120 over to -130 under. That is a crazy adjustment with the public leaning over.... You know what to do if the game is played.


                                                              That is heavy ck.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Joe Sharp
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 06-01-09
                                                                • 3011

                                                                #32
                                                                My guess boobs --- I mean obama - is that its b/c they got swept by minny already. But thats just imo.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • thebestthereis
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 03-01-09
                                                                  • 11459

                                                                  #33
                                                                  love the orioles play cause them being favored on the road here makes me laugh my ass off. let's get after it.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • cocknocker
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 11-06-08
                                                                    • 8001

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Johnny Damon will be out for the Yanks tonight!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • t-bone
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 03-18-08
                                                                      • 3732

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Nats +112 First 5........Red Sox are screamin trap
                                                                      Comment
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