Respectable Home Teams in Game 3 after Losing First 2 Games

[peteypab89]

Just wanted to leave you guys with something I've been using a little over a year. When 3 game series start up, typically on Monday & Friday, I look at what home teams are better or equal to their road opponent. Then I wait to see which of those home teams lose the first 2 games of the series. I then bet them to win (or cover +1.5 if their SP sucks) the 3rd game of the series. The theory is it's hard to beat a good or even average team 3 times in a row in their own stadium. I haven't recorded any win percentages, but I feel it's been pretty successful. I have the Pirates right now (little late, I know).

Tonight, the Mets try to avoid the sweep at home. I got +1.5 at a decent price last night, but they're close to even money right now to win straight up. This one could be dangerous since the Mets swept the Nats in their home stadium & Washington could be focused on revenge. I still like the Mets' chances, though. Your call & gl this year



BTW I'll probably bet LAA thursday night (4/19) if they lose tonight to Boston

[Skeletor42]

I usually take a closer look at these games. I feel this system can be profitable. I am going with Mets ML and Pirates ML this evening. GL on your picks brother!

[peteypab89]

you too bud, but the Pirates game is already over. i'm at work so i didn't post early enough. sorry. hopefully the mets handle their business tonight

[Skeletor42]

Yes my bad on the pirates game. Thought is was this evening but am riding with the mets. I do prescribe to your theory though. Mets will be a good game but Roark can be a monster. GL bud!

[peteypab89]

what an 8th by NYM! I'm going after LAA tomorrow night. probably gonna take +1.5 at -165, but ML is -103 right now

[peteypab89]

taking LAA +1.5 at -165 as a parlay padder, line for LAA moneyline is -108 at the moment

[peteypab89]

btw here are some stats regarding home teams avoiding the sweep after losing game 1 of a series (couldn't find stats for losing the first 2 games). the numbers look pretty good

https://www.teamrankings.com/blog/mlb/how-often-do-mlb-teams-avoid-a-sweep-after-losing-the-first-game-of-a-series

[peteypab89]

going with HOU -200/LAD -340 parlay for a hair less than even money. astros are the good home team trying to avoid the sweep (verlander vs. tropeano, i like Houston's chances). since it's heavy juice & i don't like chasing -1.5, especially on a home team, i figured i'd add a kershaw home game. it's also following a loss to what might be the worst team in baseball, i gotta think the dodgers will take care of business

gl guys

[peteypab89]

LAA -110, WAS -120

parlay padders: BOS -210, TOR -235

[peteypab89]

MIN -103 (+1.5 at -165)

[peteypab89]

ATL -138
NYM -195 (-1.5 at +120, -0.5 1st 5 inn. at -130)

[peteypab89]

DET -128 (at -176 now. sorry, i should've posted this morning)

[MalikHusam]

decent teams at home
I have a feeling that

you are very scientific, my friend!

[peteypab89]

Lad -147
laa -163

[peteypab89]

Parlay padder: BOS -260 (-1.5 at -125, -0.5 1st 5 inn at -160)

Optional pick: KC +101 The Royals are not a very good team, but I'm putting a small amount on them since I don't see Tampa as a power house & I think KC can get a couple runs up on Faria. Your choice, GL today

[peteypab89]

TOR -102
WSH -138

PIT -140
MIN -125

Parlay padder: LAA -196

Non-system pick: NYM -168

[BigDofBA]

How is this working for you?

I used to think this way long ago when I started and I lost my ass.

I found it better to ride the wave instead of bet against it. Teams get hot and go in slumps.

[peteypab89]

today could've been better, blown save by PIT didn't help :/ so far this year it's been basically a push. i'm gonna stick with it though, last year was pretty good to me & i think the wins will start coming at a higher percentage.

your approach is good too though, always smart to hop on a streak, never know how long it can last

[BigDofBA]

today could've been better, blown save by PIT didn't help :/ so far this year it's been basically a push. i'm gonna stick with it though, last year was pretty good to me & i think the wins will start coming at a higher percentage.

your approach is good too though, always smart to hop on a streak, never know how long it can last

Good luck!

I was on the Padres and that was a very ugly win for me. Pit totally fell apart in the 9th after rallying from a 4-1 hole.

[peteypab89]

OAK -137

parlay padder: NYY -188

[peteypab89]

parlay padder: COL +2.5 at -195.

normally i would go with COL +1.5 at -125, but I can never get a read on who the Dodgers actually are. that goes double for Alex Wood this year. going with the safer bet here. btw, ML for the Rockies is +125

[2daBank]

I usually take a closer look at these games. I feel this system can be profitable. I am going with Mets ML and Pirates ML this evening. GL on your picks brother!

To be honest I look to play on teams going for sweep in lot of these cases cause this avoid the sweep strategy is used by a lot of ppl which in turn tends to move lines and create value on the team attempting to sweep. Obviously it not something I bet blindly and take it on a game by game basis just something to think about as quite often you playing into inflated lines in these spots.,

[peteypab89]

been kinda busy, haven't been posting but i've still been betting. still not much better than .500 this year in this system, make most of my money live-betting. but......

rolling with CLE -168 today. even though the Twins' bats are hot right now, i think think the Tribe ride the momentum of Brandon Guyer's shutdown 9th inning yesterday & give some run support to Justin Bieber today


optional pick: STL +102

[RavensFan2k3]

Orioles fit this description? Lol im jk

[2Shirts]

Cleveland sucks dude - but good luck

[peteypab89]

yeah they've been in poor form but i figured i'd roll the dice on them since they do seem to at least score at home. didn't expect the kid to hold off the twins like that though.

i actually did put a very tiny amount on baltimore lol figures they win & my other tiny bet for the nats loses

[peteypab89]

KC -120

Putting a small amount down on Kansas City. Royals aren't a good team by any means, but TEX isn't much better. The Rangers will have to show me they can complete a road sweep.

[peteypab89]

ATL -180
MIN -187


optional, road teams:

CHC -141
NYY -175

[peteypab89]

adding WSH -112