Wow! Cards are the biggest favorite I can ever remember you playing in a couple years of tailing LT. I’m guessing you have a pretty high variance on that game?
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JohnsonJeff428
SBR Rookie
04-07-18
3
#4
like those LT
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LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#5
Originally posted by Rigbone
Wow! Cards are the biggest favorite I can ever remember you playing in a couple years of tailing LT. I’m guessing you have a pretty high variance on that game?
First item: I am experimenting for now by raising my max ML from -130 to -150. My model was backtested and the -131 to -150 range was actually profitable.
Second item: Yes to nice variance, I get St. Louis 62% (-163).
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JohnsonJeff428
SBR Rookie
04-07-18
3
#6
good luck
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Conqueror
SBR Posting Legend
12-08-13
16778
#7
Originally posted by LT Profits
First item: I am experimenting for now by raising my max ML from -130 to -150. My model was backtested and the -131 to -150 range was actually profitable.
Second item: Yes to nice variance, I get St. Louis 62% (-163).
Good news that is.
I'm still skeptical though about playing a road favorite of -141 with a suspect bullpen. I like Cardinals FF than for the entire game. Just saying.
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Rich Boy
SBR Hall of Famer
02-01-09
9714
#8
Not sure why the price of a line would matter. An edge is an edge at any price. In fact a 5% edge at -150 is more valuable than a 5% edge at +150 due to expected growth.