Mr. Crumbs Leans for Sunday Fathers' Day

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  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #1
    Mr. Crumbs Leans for Sunday Fathers' Day
    Well to those out there who have had the honor and the priviledge to conceive and raise children with or without benefit of a nuclear family, this one's for you. The hands of a father are strong enough to hold up a transmission and delicate enough to cradle an infant gently, or if need be spank the bottom of an adolescent that's out of line. But most of all I would like to thank all of you for being there. No one really knows your worth or value until times get tough. Then it becomes abundantly clear.


    At any rate, time for brass taxes.

    As most readers know I have had a rough stretch as all who wager on this grand old game will have at some point during this season. But I have gone back to the old way and included hitting average and combined it with the usual information. One thing that should be easy to see is that I don't make a play without researcing it in any sport. The relievers are ripping the good handicapping that I have done, but I won't let them stop me from making a few alterations on my behalf to hopefully slow down the bone headed decisions and pitch locations that they are throwing out there.
    Today I like

    Dodgers+112
    Tigers-130
    Cubs-1.5 +125
  • Jimbo42
    SBR MVP
    • 01-04-09
    • 2076

    #2
    Good morning all! and Happy Father's Day!

    Man I like Detroit too CK, but I'm scary on it. Still got to think about it... I mean Mil can't win against righties right now... how can they beat Verlander.....hmmmm..
    Anyway I have booked one play and am considering the Tigers..

    Booked:

    Minnesota -126
    Minnesota -1.5 +165

    GL Homies!
    Comment
    • pho3nix32
      SBR MVP
      • 01-09-09
      • 1465

      #3
      happy father's day CK and also to all fathers out there!
      Comment
      • Jimbo42
        SBR MVP
        • 01-04-09
        • 2076

        #4
        Originally posted by pho3nix32
        happy father's day CK!
        I'm liking this avatar Mr. Newlywed!
        Comment
        • pho3nix32
          SBR MVP
          • 01-09-09
          • 1465

          #5
          thanks bro! gl with your plays today
          Comment
          • kevindakota00
            Restricted User
            • 03-16-09
            • 721

            #6
            what's your thoughts on pit. vs.....de la rosa. this guys been fade material.
            Comment
            • cocknocker
              Restricted User
              • 11-06-08
              • 8001

              #7
              Breakdown time. Mind you that I am no longer being scared off of my bets just because of line movement. If the advantages are there, and the handicapping yeilds it, then I am playing it. Line movement has gotten me in a lot of trouble lately even when it has been going in my direction. I am beginning to think that line movement in baseball is very overrated in certain circumstances. Case and point, last night there was BEAUTIFUL reverse line movement on Arizona, and it chased me off of the Mariners even thogh my homework revealed that the Mariners-1.5 was the play (as anyone who tuned in early yesterday saw that I originally had the Mariners-1.5 and panned it due to Vargas not going deep innings as well as the reverse line movement that went WAY in favor of D-Backs. Long story short, despite the RLM in the D-Backs favor, the Mariners came out and performed winning 7-3 and collecting 12 hits to the D-Backs 4, and thoroughly out-classed them in every sense of the word. So from now on, I am not factoring in RLM as a reason for me to change a play. If the handicapping yeilds a play it gets played regardlss of the line movement. I am going to be starchy amost as if I were playing a Secret Play. If the crteria is there, it gets played!

              Starters' WHIP last 3 games

              LAD 1.68
              LAA 1.74

              Advantage Dodgers

              Power ranking

              LAD+113
              LAA-113

              Line

              LAD+100
              LAA-120

              Advantage Angels as a little reverse movement is involved here. Kershaw has sparkling numbers individually in interleague play but it hasn't translated into wins yet (0-1 2.66 era). Lackey the old war horse is one of my favorite pitchers, and he has the number of a few Dodgers ost notably Blake, Kemp and Ethier, but for the most part, the Angels are in a bad spot to get the cover after losing their first game in 7 tries. Usually that means another loss is on the way.

              Batting Average last 3 games

              LAD .302
              LAA .255

              Advantage Dodgers

              Slugging% last 3 games

              LAD .479
              LAA .415*

              * Advantage Dodgers HEAVY as the Halos bats havegone cold suddenly. The Angels had a 750 slug% last week this time as they played the Giants in one of the only games I got right last week.

              Bullpen WHIP Last 3 games

              LAD 1.111
              LAA 1.333

              Advantage Dodgers

              My pick: Dodgers+112. The linemaker is charging -185 for the Dodgers+1.5, but +165 for the Angels-1.5 so that tells me that the Dodgers runline play is being discouraged for a reason. The Dodgers have all of the advantages possible on paper. F*ck the reverse line movement. If reverse line movement made winning plays everytime then the last couple of weeks may have been better to me because i have had it in my favor and still no fruit cup after recess.

              **************************************** ****************************

              Starting pitcher WHIP last 3 games

              CLE 1.31
              CUB 1.10

              Advantage Cubs

              Power ranking

              CLE+194
              CUB-194

              Line

              CLE+145
              CUB-155

              Advantage Cubs. With 51% of bettors on their side, the Cubs line went up from a start of -155 to -165

              Hitting average last 3 games

              CLE .246
              CUB .262

              Advantage Cubs

              Slugging% last 3 games

              CLE .444
              CUB .459

              Advantage Cubs

              Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

              CLE 1.933 (It seems worse than this though)
              CUB 1.429

              Advantage Cubs

              My Pick: Cubs-1.5+125 as the value is there per the power ranking

              **************************************** *****

              Starting pitcher WHIP last 3 games

              MIL 1.33 (*overall 1.17)
              DET 1.19 (*overall 1.16)

              Advantage Detroit and the * UNDER for totals players

              Power ranking

              MIL-113
              DET+113

              Line

              MIL+110
              DET-130

              Advantage Brewers, as the power ranking shows that they should be favored (I don't know why when I finished my homework I couldn't see any reason why they would be favored to win.) and there is a slight reverse movement in their favor, due wholly to the lack of movement on the side of the Tigers even with a 77% to 23% advantage among bettors. By the time my homework is finished it will be abundantly clear that the Tigers should be favored by more though.

              Batting aveerage last 3 games

              MIL .297
              DET .356

              Advantage Tigers

              Slugging % last 3 games

              MIL .541
              DET .663 (Wow!)

              Advantage HEAVY for Tigers

              Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

              MIL 1.803 (Seems worse than that after watching them give away leads and runs lately)
              DET 1.386

              Advantage Tigers

              My Pick: Tigers-130 Verlander and Gallardo are due for corrections (*as indicated next to their Starting WHIP for last 3 game numbers) and I see this as a low scoring game, with the Brewers horrid bullpen giving it away late. The Tigers have the edge in pitching both starting and relieving, as well as the hitting average and slugging% in their favor. The only thng not in their favor is the line and the power ranking estimate


              Comment
              • jimbojpc
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 09-23-07
                • 627

                #8
                BOL Cocknocker Have a Happy Fathers Day!
                Comment
                • kornixxxx
                  SBR Hustler
                  • 06-07-09
                  • 63

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Jimbo42
                  Good morning all! and Happy Father's Day!

                  Booked:

                  Minnesota -126
                  Minnesota -1.5 +165

                  GL Homies!
                  I have booked them too, but only with -1,5 hope they wont lose at home !
                  Comment
                  • cocknocker
                    Restricted User
                    • 11-06-08
                    • 8001

                    #10
                    Originally posted by kevindakota00
                    what's your thoughts on pit. vs.....de la rosa. this guys been fade material.
                    De la Rosa is over-valued by a long margin. He is favored by -145, yet the power rankings made him a -106 pitcher which I feel is more like it. The only problem with this game is the big disparity at the bats for the teams over the last 3 games. While Colorado is hitting .305 with a .642 slugging% (WOW), the Pirates are hitting .267 and .406 slug% respectively, which isn't slouchy by any means.

                    Meanwhile the Pirates have all of the advantages in the hrowing department of this game. When you take into accoun the 2.115 WHIP that te Colorado bullpen is giving up, apparently they are due for a loss very soon, and it will come late in the game
                    Comment
                    • cocknocker
                      Restricted User
                      • 11-06-08
                      • 8001

                      #11
                      First half bettors beware: Here are the worst bullpens over the last 3 games:

                      Arizona 3.000 WHIP

                      Philly 3.049 WHIP

                      Mets 2.333 WHIP

                      Pale Hose 2.065 WHIP

                      Colorado 2.115 WHIP

                      Cleveland 1.933 WHIP

                      Oakland 1.908 WHIP

                      Brewers 1.803 WHIP

                      If you are planning on wagering on any of these teams, you'd better get em early. A bettor may want to explore the possibility of taking them for the 1st 5 innings. Don't let them steal your money late!
                      Comment
                      • thegenix
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 11-14-08
                        • 339

                        #12
                        Originally posted by cocknocker
                        First half bettors beware: Here are the worst bullpens over the last 3 games:

                        Arizona 3.000 WHIP

                        Philly 3.049 WHIP

                        Mets 2.333 WHIP

                        Pale Hose 2.065 WHIP

                        Colorado 2.115 WHIP

                        Cleveland 1.933 WHIP

                        Oakland 1.908 WHIP

                        Brewers 1.803 WHIP

                        If you are planning on wagering on any of these teams, you'd better get em early. A bettor may want to explore the possibility of taking them for the 1st 5 innings. Don't let them steal your money late!
                        I'm shocked the Indians aren't topping this list. Their bullpen is just horrid.
                        Comment
                        • showtime2000
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-09-08
                          • 1054

                          #13
                          To all the pop's out there, HAPPY FATHERS'S DAY!!!!!!!
                          Comment
                          • cocknocker
                            Restricted User
                            • 11-06-08
                            • 8001

                            #14
                            The Wahoos bullpen is worse than most because their bullpen is costing them games. Colorado's bullpen is pretty bad, but they have been able to overcome their shortcomings with hot bats
                            Comment
                            • gyftosgreek
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 12-16-08
                              • 240

                              #15
                              Happy fathers day ck and allyou guys at sbr!!!!!!!!!!
                              Comment
                              • shoebox
                                Restricted User
                                • 11-26-08
                                • 5710

                                #16
                                buccos +127 3 un
                                braves +120 2 un
                                reds rl +175 2 un







                                Comment
                                • thegenix
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 11-14-08
                                  • 339

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by cocknocker
                                  The Wahoos bullpen is worse than most because their bullpen is costing them games. Colorado's bullpen is pretty bad, but they have been able to overcome their shortcomings with hot bats
                                  Being a Tribe fan I know exactly what you are saying. It's so frustrating to watch. They have Sowers pitching today though so the bullpen probably won't be the ones losing the game this time.
                                  Comment
                                  • thegenix
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 11-14-08
                                    • 339

                                    #18
                                    mlb:
                                    Det -122
                                    min -1.5 +170
                                    lad +119
                                    chc -1.5 +130

                                    wnba:
                                    liberty +4.5 -130

                                    soccer:
                                    italy/brazil o2.5 +105

                                    happy father's day everyone and bol!
                                    Comment
                                    • hockeytown71
                                      SBR Hustler
                                      • 02-21-09
                                      • 95

                                      #19
                                      Pirates 1st 5 innings +115.
                                      Like Maholm and it seems as if Pitt has been getting the early lead and losing in the late innings.

                                      Parlaying Phi -169/Seattle -164: Just like the pitching matchups

                                      Any thoughts.
                                      Comment
                                      • Spaceviews
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 06-04-09
                                        • 799

                                        #20
                                        Happy Fathers Day CK and to all Best of Luck today Gents.......(& ladies of course)
                                        Comment
                                        • ragiche
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 12-09-08
                                          • 3110

                                          #21
                                          1st of all HAPPY FATHER'S DAY to all the father's who are here in the thread.
                                          Comment
                                          • hockeytown71
                                            SBR Hustler
                                            • 02-21-09
                                            • 95

                                            #22
                                            Just throwing this out there... any thoughts on taking the Jays. Do you really think the nats can sweep somebody?
                                            Comment
                                            • JayJay2
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 06-19-09
                                              • 38

                                              #23
                                              Hey CK, which one of them would you pick to play heavy if you had to choose one?

                                              Seems like your doing well and could almost call yourself a messias for us sbr readers keep bringing vegas down!
                                              Comment
                                              • TheLemonDropKid
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 02-02-09
                                                • 1501

                                                #24
                                                Lots of pretty significant RLM out there today......including one of your plays CK.

                                                STL 74% -102 to +105
                                                KC 26%

                                                MIL 22%
                                                DET 78% -130 to -119

                                                BAL 18%
                                                PHI 82% -180 to -165

                                                ARI 23%
                                                SEA 77% -175 to -165

                                                NYY 81% -170 to -163
                                                FL 19%

                                                Any thoughts on this crazy movement guys?

                                                And happy b-day to the missus CK...my wife's birthday is the 20th.

                                                Happy Papas day to you and the rest of the mafia as well!!
                                                Comment
                                                • Jimbo42
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 01-04-09
                                                  • 2076

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by shoebox
                                                  buccos +127 3 un
                                                  braves +120 2 un
                                                  reds rl +175 2 un







                                                  Shoe is on Pitt.... don't discount this one... Shoe purdy darn good when pickin the Pirates!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • kmarinouofm
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 01-26-09
                                                    • 8437

                                                    #26
                                                    happy father's day ck.. and to another other fathers we have on this thread..
                                                    Comment
                                                    • TheLemonDropKid
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 02-02-09
                                                      • 1501

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by hockeytown71
                                                      Just throwing this out there... any thoughts on taking the Jays. Do you really think the nats can sweep somebody?

                                                      I agree.......I think the Jays are a good pick.....but I suck.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Jimbo42
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 01-04-09
                                                        • 2076

                                                        #28
                                                        Dang LDK...
                                                        you did a little research, nice!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Jimbo42
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 01-04-09
                                                          • 2076

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by hockeytown71
                                                          Just throwing this out there... any thoughts on taking the Jays. Do you really think the nats can sweep somebody?
                                                          Sometimes teams get on a roll bro.... remember the Rocks early in their streak?... Play the Nats or lay off in my opinion...
                                                          Comment
                                                          • TheLemonDropKid
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 02-02-09
                                                            • 1501

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by Jimbo42
                                                            Dang LDK...
                                                            you did a little research, nice!

                                                            It's 93 degrees here with a heat index of 103 degrees bro.....

                                                            And you're complaining about 87?? LOL!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • TheLemonDropKid
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 02-02-09
                                                              • 1501

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by Jimbo42
                                                              Dang LDK...
                                                              you did a little research, nice!

                                                              And btw......now that I actually put some work in......can you share your thoughts on this type of movement? Do you think people look too much into the whole RLM thing......or is there some legitimate info there? What are your thoughts on these games I listed?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Jimbo42
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-04-09
                                                                • 2076

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by TheLemonDropKid
                                                                And btw......now that I actually put some work in......can you share your thoughts on this type of movement? Do you think people look too much into the whole RLM thing......or is there some legitimate info there? What are your thoughts on these games I listed?
                                                                i don't look too much at movement... what i do look at is percentage of bets on a favorite... i love to play a home favorite that is only getting 20% to 30% of the love and the line is not moving signifigantly....To me this means that the linemaker has a different opinion than the public... that is signifcant especially when it involves the linemaker putting you onto the dog and plus money... He is making a stand with the game... I like to be on his side...

                                                                GL Mr. Happy!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • jellobiafra
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 03-08-09
                                                                  • 6291

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Happy Father's Day to all the fathers on this thread.

                                                                  I'm on CIN -116, MIL/DET under 8 +100, and STL/KC under 8.5 -105.


                                                                  And of course I'm on the WNBA money train as well.


                                                                  Good luck everybody!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • peterpan19
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 11-02-08
                                                                    • 3377

                                                                    #34
                                                                    ouch...that was quick...verlander gives up a bomb early...
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • showtime2000
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 11-09-08
                                                                      • 1054

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Holla Holla Holla, 6 more days to go!

                                                                      Anyways, here we go,

                                                                      Det (CK)
                                                                      Min (Jiiiiiiiimbo)



                                                                      GLA
                                                                      Comment
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