Razz_Donkey 2009 MLB picks and plays

[Razz_Donkey]

Better late than never I suppose. I'm going to be posting plays and patterns which I use for the rest of the MLB season. Thoughts and comments would be helpful.

*{Edit}* As a side note, the plays that I list here will be my own plays, ones that in general I have followed and analyzed. If I choose to tail other good capers here, which I often do, and don't have any further insight or info on the play it will not be listed here.

Also, units size and records will not be kept here. My intent is not to establish a reputation, nor to focus on my bankroll methods and management, it is simply to break down games and hopefully attract helpful discussion.

[Razz_Donkey]

6/10/09

- Detroit Tigers -1.5 RL (+125): This game has all the makings of a beat down. The Sox are 18-23 against right handers this year, whereas Detroit is a whopping 13-5 against lefties, bad news for John Danks. The Tigers also enjoy a significant scoring advantage of nearly one full run more per game then the Sox, while at the same time alllowing .2 runs less per game. For these reasons I will roll with Detroit RL today.

More plays to follow...

[Razz_Donkey]

6/10/09

Added:


- Baltimore -1.5 alternate RL (+180): Yeah, I know. Going against the grain here, not only by picking the O's but by riding the home team RL. My reasoning here is this; Seattle is not a great road team and sadly is last in the league with runs scored per game (3.72). Their current lineup has been anything but successful against Guthrie who has allowed their hitters 1 home run and only that single RBI to the 75 total ABs they have had against him. Hernandez? While he is certainly an impressive young pitcher his numbers against the current O's are dismal, yielding 41 hits in the 115 total ABs, and a SLG% of over .500! If trends continue we are looking at Baltimore multi-run victory, and thus I feel the alternate RL has a ton of value here.

[Razz_Donkey]

6/10/09

Added:

- Rays team runs over 4.5 (-115): Rays score 5.5 runs per game and have a good team record against right handed pitching (21-17). Tampa is 4-25 when scoring 4 or less runs. As the moneyline continues to climb for the Rays, the team total of 4.5 begins to have more value, if you foresee a Rays win as I do. I look for the Rays to win this game with some strong offense. Besides Upton and Pena, the rest of the Rays have looked fairly solid against Lackey.

[Razz_Donkey]

6/11/09

- Cardinals ML (-115): No write up, was on this play anyway and then saw the universal support from many others including CK. Wellemeyer has kept current Marlins to below a .200 BA, and the Cards are back to hitting. Weak Florida lineup, RL has some value here as well if the Cards continue to pour on the runs. More plays later, won't be so last minute in the future.

[Razz_Donkey]

6/11/09

Added:

- Mets / Phillies score in first inning YES: Both of these teams love to score and allow their opponents to score in the first inning. If the Mets continued their first run scoring rate throughout the game they would average 7.74 rpg. Conversely, opponents get enough runs off the Mets to amount to 6.32 rpg. The Phillies are more of the same, though not quite as high as the Mets. The line is at -140 in most places, but I still contend that its too low.

[Razz_Donkey]

Quick recap before I tune out on baseball and turn on the NBA finals. Yesterday Tampa came through with a win, and as expected the over 4.5 runs. That over dropped to even money before game time at some books and represented great value. The Tigers had plenty of opportunities but didn't put up any offense. Verlander did his job, throwing a spectacular complete game. Baltimore didn't come close, and I credit Hernandez with a spectacular outing. The O's had hit him in the past, but not on that day.

Today, got a bit lucky with the Cards, and Mets came through with a run in the first off grandpa Moyer. Be back for more in the morning.

[Razz_Donkey]

6/12/09

Two small 1st inning plays for now:

- Boston/Philly score in the 1st: NO

- NYM/NYY score in the 1st: YES

Going to be watching game 7 of NHL, but might try a few more 1st inning bets later.

[Razz_Donkey]

6/12/09

Split the 1st inning bets. Small parlay added:

- Colorado (-150) parlayed with Over 9 (E). No analysis for now, will keep up with this in the future though. I promise.

[Razz_Donkey]

Go Rockies! Keep it up!

[Razz_Donkey]

Sweet, that was a much needed cash with the Rockies parlay.

[Razz_Donkey]

Looking at the early games for 6/13/09. Like the Cubs, Harden has faced the Twins before coming from the A's and has been very effective so far. Don't like laying the price though since Harden has been out for a month. As for Toronto and Florida, liking the under 9 so far. Not sure about a side yet. I'll finalize my plays by the morning.