June 7th BEST BET Plays:
Oakland ML -107 (1 unit)
Seattle ML -135 (1 unit)
Oakland ML -107 (1 unit)
Seattle ML -135 (1 unit)
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June 7th Recap:Originally posted by Xpertcapper
Oakland ML -107 (1 unit)
A's win behind Vin
Athletics 3, Orioles 0
Vin Mazzaro remained unscored upon in his brief Major League career, shutting down the Orioles in his first game in Oakland. The A's gave Mazzaro a lead in the first inning, when they drew four walks and scored three runs.
Rich Hill was pulled from his start against the A's after he gave up three runs on one hit and four walks in only two-thirds of an inning. The bullpen pitched effectively in relief, but the damage had been done, and the O's were swept out of Oakland.
Seattle ML -135 (1 unit)
Trio of round-trippers boosts Seattle
Mariners 4, Twins 2
The Mariners swung for the fences in the finale, starting with Russell Branyan's solo homer in the first. Jose Lopez and Jamie Burke, just brought up to the club, hit solo shots in the fifth. Erik Bedard gave up two runs and struck out four.
Although Justin Morneau and Joe Crede were able to drive in runs with a groundout RBI and sac fly, respectively, in the fifth inning, the Twins offense was otherwise quiet. Kevin Slowey struggled for the first time in four starts, giving up three homers.
YTD: 2-0, +2 unitsComment -
Another new thread? Wow...you will have record for starting your picks over and over again!Comment -
I am having serious computer problems. My computer has been up and down for about a month. I guess i could research back about 20 pages to find other threads i have. If that would satisfy you i can do that. Im not sure what that has to do with trying to help myself and others win games and cash. If you have some good thoughts to add thats cool, but if you want to keep track of how many threads people have i think i would be in last place in that category. Why the hate..because i won 2 games in 1 day? Wow, we all know that wont continue but i know i have solid picks that maybe you and others can use to compare to what you have.Comment -
i think he's just saying the fact that you keep re-setting your record. im sure if you were killing it you would find a way to get those figures...Comment -
This is the reason some people leave this forum..all the negative comments that arent needed..gl to you dexterComment -
hmm..this makes me wonder if your the poster that "G" is referring to...not sure why you would do or say these things to someone who is posting picks...that doesnt make you look to friendly sir. This forum is for posting plays..i dont get paid for this i use this to track my plays and have a source for others to compare their plays with, thats all. If you dont have something positive to say in a thread then ignore the thread please. All this stuff does is clog threads and make it harder for others to enjoy themselves.Comment -
my comment wasnt meant to be negative at all. apologizes if you took it that way.
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cant open that link...whats that?Originally posted by Xpertcapper
calm down man. you cant blame someone for questioning the fact that you reset your record at least 3 or 4 times. there are thousands of people who come to sbr. did you really think no one would ever question that?
if you had computer problems then theres everyones answer
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Originally posted by Dexter
Im not sure how you would think that was a positive statement sir..Sure sounds like a sarcastic statement that wasnt to positive...Anyways...for what its worth i will try to retrieve the other thread i had with about 3 days of plays on it and add it to my record. I dont think it will change much but if it means that much i will do it. I dont really give a damn about a record..i havent made a wager in a few weeks..been unable to acess any web sites due to my puter being flodded with spyware and viruses....I'll make sure i add this thread to my favorites so if i have this problem again i can easily acess it..didnt think it would be a issue. GL to you dexter and i hope to give and gain information from you so this can be a positive adventure.Comment -
it wasnt meant to be positive or negative....just factual information regarding the threads. i was just saying how i saw his point.Comment -
Originally posted by XpertcapperJune 7th Recap:
Oakland ML -107 (1 unit)
A's win behind Vin
Athletics 3, Orioles 0
Vin Mazzaro remained unscored upon in his brief Major League career, shutting down the Orioles in his first game in Oakland. The A's gave Mazzaro a lead in the first inning, when they drew four walks and scored three runs.
Rich Hill was pulled from his start against the A's after he gave up three runs on one hit and four walks in only two-thirds of an inning. The bullpen pitched effectively in relief, but the damage had been done, and the O's were swept out of Oakland.
Seattle ML -135 (1 unit)
Trio of round-trippers boosts Seattle
Mariners 4, Twins 2
The Mariners swung for the fences in the finale, starting with Russell Branyan's solo homer in the first. Jose Lopez and Jamie Burke, just brought up to the club, hit solo shots in the fifth. Erik Bedard gave up two runs and struck out four.
Although Justin Morneau and Joe Crede were able to drive in runs with a groundout RBI and sac fly, respectively, in the fifth inning, the Twins offense was otherwise quiet. Kevin Slowey struggled for the first time in four starts, giving up three homers.
YTD: 2-0, +2 units
See Y'all in the morning..GLComment -
June 8th BEST BET Plays:
NYY ML -157 (1 unit)
Texas ML -151 (1 unit)
Oakland ML -144 (1 unit)
YTD: 2-0, +2 unitsComment -
where do you get your lines from? I like the prices.Comment -
I also like the Giants tonight but not enuf to make them a play.Comment -
Originally posted by jasont
justbetComment -
Baseball WHIP
Ever been viewing baseball stats and come across "whip" and thought to yourself, what the heck is that? Your not alone! In fact, we probably wouldn't have known what it is either if we hadn't grown up to be fantasy baseball fanatics. The information below will explain what w.h.i.p. is and why it's so important relative to baseball handicapping and break down what good whip and bad whip are which is sure to change the way you cap baseball games forever!
WHIP stands for walks + hits divided by innings pitched. This essentially gives us a number of how many baserunners per inning a pitcher allows. This is some REALLY GOOD STUFF when it comes to handicapping baseball games because we all can agree it's a better stat than ERA which is saying a lot. Let's take a look at an example below:
WHIP IS A HUGE FACTOR WHEN HANDICAPPING BASEBALL.
A pitcher has thrown 100 innings on the season. During that stint he's given up 85 hits and 40 walks. We take the 40 walks and add them to the 85 hits. This gives us a total of 125 walks/hits combined. We then divide that by the 100 innings pitched which gives us a WHIP of 1.25. In case your wondering, that's a pretty average number. Let's take a look at the good, average and the ugly broken down on a scale:
1.00 or under: Flat nasty. Stellar. Very few pitchers will achieve this feet. Maybe a real filthy closer or a Randy Johnson/Pedro Martinez/Greg Maddux during their prime.
1.01-1.20: Very good. Very respectable. A pitcher with these type of numbers doesn't let many guys on and is likely to be a successful major leaguer.
1.25-1.40: These numbers are decent to fairly average.
1.40-1.50: These aren't very desirable numbers and these pitchers likely have control problems or don't have what it takes to be in the big leagues.
1.50 and above: Gascan is the first thing that comes to mind. Given the opportunity to bet against a whip above 1.50 (if at decent odds) is a great proposition. This is a hurler who constantly has guys on base which is a losing proposition in MLB.
You probably won't see too many whip's above 1.50 in MLB. Many of these guys get sent down to the minors or end up out of the game.
Just thought topic would be interesting for others to learn from. From reading different posts i see that Cocknocker uses WHIP in capping games with value and i think its a great tool to start with and use with capping games. Its not the only tool to use but i feel its real important.Comment -
Teams today with a starting pitcher with a WHIP <1.50:
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/players/player43154.html (R) Tampa Bay WHIP 1.68 @ NYY
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/players/player40721.html (L)NYY WHIP 1.54 vs. Tampa Bay
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/players/player42859.html (R) Toronto WHIP 1.76 @ Texas
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/players/player41397.html (R)CWS WHIP 1.89 vs. Detroit
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/players/player41055.html (R) Arizona WHIP 1.64 @ SDComment -
i'm all about the whip - great postOriginally posted by XpertcapperComment -
Hey dex would you ever take a team if a pitcher's WHIP is <150? I have noticed the WHIP is a pretty big deciding factor in capping. Do you agree?Comment -
of course <1.50 i would take the pitcher. the lower the better. unless you meant would i take a pitcher if his whip was > 1.50?Originally posted by Xpertcapper
i pretty much look at whip for a pitchers last 3 starts. whips of 1.00 or < are great, and of 1.80> are awful.Comment -
In Baseball, as in Life, Patience is a Virtue
The bottom line in baseball is that information and patience pay off. For the patient informed better, gambling on America’s pastime can pay off higher than playing any other sport. Make sure you have take a long-term view (don't get too upset if you have a losing day and don't get too excited if you have a winning day).
MONEY MANAGEMENT
Don't bet too much for your bankroll!It is very tempting to put down a lot on each game, especially when you are winning. It is relatively boring to put down a little. But, you need to work within your bankroll, whatever that is. There will be bad streaks and good streaks in sports betting. It is inevitable if you do it for any extended period of time. Do yourself the favor of allowing yourself to "stay in the game." Don't miss out on that late-season run of luck because you are out of the game too early.
If your bankroll (amount you have set aside to bet with) is $10,000 and your average bet is more than $300, you are betting too much. If you have $1,000 to bet with and your average bet size is $30, you are betting too much. If your bankroll is $500 and you bet more than $15 per game, you are betting too much.
The silver lining in all of this is that YOU CONTROL THE SINGLE BIGGEST IMPEDIMENT TO LOSING. Let me say that again - regardless of how you pick games or whether someone helps you, you have the ability to erase the single biggest reason you may lose. All you need to do is practice safe money management.
So, how much you should you lay per game?
It depends, of course, on your bankroll (how much you are willing and able to lose over the course of the season). But there is a simple rule that applies regardless of whether you are a ten-dollar per game bettor or a one-thousand-dollar per game bettor: Bet around 2% of your bankroll on average and don't ever bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given game on which you have even or close to even odds. On rare occassions where you are sure your chance of winning the game is extremely high (i.e. moneyline favoritees), a higher % of bankroll is sometimes warranted. But, for most bets in which you have even odds, 5% is your upper max. There are no locks. Let me repeat that - there is no such thing as a sure thing. Any bet can lose. Losing streaks can and do happen. Even in a season where you hit 60% overall, you'll have weeks where you hit 40%. It's an absolute certainty.
Can you make money with this strategy? Absolutely. In fact, its required to make money. Without this strategy, you will consistently lose regardless of how well you pick games. If you hit 54-58% (what you should expect), you will lose a lot of money (and maybe even deplete your entire bakroll) if you are betting more than 5% of your bankroll per game!
If you are winning and on a great roll, your bets can increase and you can win even more. How? You can simply use a percentage of your remaining bankroll. As your bankroll increases, your bet size increases. As your bankroll decreases, your bets decrease. A nice side benefit of this is that, by definition, you can never get wiped out. It is mathematically impossible to lose your entire bankroll if you are always betting a small percentage of it.
The bottom line: Remember, bet around 2% of your bankroll on average per game game. If you aren't as sure on a game, drop it to 1% and if you feel very good about a game, take it up to 3%. For those rare games that you absolutely love, you might go a tad higher but never risk more than 5% under any circumstances.
I rate my picks as 1 to 5 units and I recommend you risk the following:1 unit - 1% of bankrollSo, you are always risking between 1% and 3% of your bankroll.
2 units - 1.5% of bankroll
3 units - 2% of bankroll
4 units - 2.5% of bankroll
5 units - 3% of bankroll
Just some good bedtime reading and good money management to allow you bankroll to grow through the MLB season.Comment -
June 8th Recap:Originally posted by Xpertcapper
NYY ML -157 (1 unit)
Yanks go homer-happy vs. Rays
Yankees 5, Rays 3
The Yankees head to their series with the division-rival Red Sox perched atop the American League East thanks to homers by Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher, Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter, as well as a seven-strikeout performance by Andy Pettitte.
Andy Sonnanstine didn't allow a homer in his previous start at Yankee Stadium, but that stinginess was nowhere in sight on Monday, when the right-hander surrendered four. The Rays put up a big fourth to tie the score, but the host Yankees regained the lead and never let go.
Texas ML -151 (1 unit)
Lind's double blasts sink Rangers
Blue Jays 6, Rangers 3
The Rangers' potent offense went cold save for a three-run sixth inning that included an infield RBI single from Marlon Byrd and an RBI hit from Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Scott Feldman had his own struggles, but they were mainly against the bat of Adam Lind and his two homers.
On the day when Lyle Overbay won the AL Player of the Week, it was Adam Lind who his worth, notching two two-run homers, both with Vernon Wells on base, off Scott Feldman. Casey Janssen started off strong, but fell into trouble with control in the sixth inning.
Oakland ML -144 (1 unit)
A's surge to seventh straight
Athletics 4, Twins 3
Jack Hannahan's three-run double tied the game in the fourth, and Jack Cust's 10th long ball of the season propelled Josh Outman to 4-0 and sent the A's to their seventh consecutive victory. Aaron Cunningham was hit by a pitch in the head and left the game with a concussion.
The Twins got the big hit they'd been lacking of late when Matt Tolbert delivered a two-out double with the bases loaded in the fourth to give them an early lead, but Anthony Swarzak gave up three runs a half-inning later, and the offense slipped back into a slump down the stretch.
YTD: 4-1, +2.49 units
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June 9th BEST BET Plays:
Oakland ML -105
I might add more. There are a few big prices i like also. I will watch the line movement and if they become plays i will post later.
YTD: 4-1, +2.49 unitsComment -
June 9th added JM Play:
NYY RL+1.5 -165 (1 unit)
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Originally posted by Xpertcapper
**you might get a better price on Oakland if you wait closer till gametime. I think the public will lean towards the twinkies in this one.**
By Jim Feist
Baseball is a game of stats and streaks. The Tigers started last season losing 7 straight games, despite being favored in the first 5! The Angels went 14-1 under the total last May when their offense was banged up. The Florida Marlins started this season 11-1 before going in a massive funk.
There will be all kinds of streaks over the course of a 162-game season: Consecutive shutout innings thrown by pitchers, a batter hitting safely in X number of games, or consecutive saves by a closer. You will see 10-game win streaks, +10-game losing streaks, pitchers ripping off 7-straight wins, teams losing 4-straight one-run games. All these add to the excitement and interest in the game.
From a betting perspective, however, streaks need to be approached with a careful eye and a cautious head. Playing against "the law of averages" is no way to wager. For example, some bettors think, "This team has won nine in a row, therefore it is time to bet against them, as they are due for a losing streak." This doesn't work in the world of eleven-to-ten. In 2004, the Boston Red Sox played close to .500 baseball much of the season from May through mid-August. Starting on August 16, the Sox won six in a row.
If you support the law of averages, you might conclude that the Sox would be due for several losses and bet against them. In fact, they did lose, 3-0 to Toronto ending that streak – only to then go on a ten-game win streak. When that streak ended, they won nine of the next 12 games. The "anticipated" losing streak never arrived. Simply put, the law of averages can't predict what is going to happen the next game, or the next ten games.
Many expected the Tigers to turn it around after their bad April of 2008 figuring they were too talented to keep playing sloppy ball, but they never got hot. Some teams can slip out of a funk that had gone on for months, as the 2004 Red Sox did, and begin to play very well, while others do not. In fact, that is the point – there are almost always tangible reasons why a team goes on hot or cold streaks, more so than the law of averages.
The 2004 Red Sox had improved their defense by adding several players at the trading deadline, including SS Orlando Cabrera. It took a few weeks, but the improved defense and attitude was real and they showed it by playing winning ball on the field the rest of the season. Last year's Tigers started poorly because of weak defense and pitching injuries. The Angels 14-1 under the total streak was not a fluke – the offense was decimated by injuries and the pitching staff was magnificent.
Sometimes injuries can play a role, especially if an ace pitcher is out, and other times teams go into a collective hitting or pitching slump. Think about the talented 2007 NY Mets. They ended the year 5-12, blowing the division lead to the Phillies. If you had bet on them the last week with the reasoning, "They're too good to keep playing this bad," you would have lost your shirt when they went 1-6 against the Nationals and Marlins, two of the worst teams in baseball.
Remember the start of the 1988 season when the Baltimore Orioles lost their first 21 games? Sports bettors playing the law of averages hoping the Orioles "were due to win" blew out their betting bankrolls before May 1st. Overall, it is better to ride a hot team or continue to bet against a cold team, than to rely on the law of averages and bet the other way.
Long story short. Dont take the Twinkies guessing that Oakland will finally lose a game. " They are going to lose eventually". That might get expensive. I would never bet against a win streak. If you dont like Oakland dont play it in my opinion.
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FINAL CARD, June 9th BEST BET and JM Plays:
BEST BET PLAY: Oakland ML -105 (1 unit)
JM SYSTEM PLAY: NYY RL+1.5 -165(1 unit)
YTD:
BEST BET Plays: 4-1, +2.49 units
JM System Plays :
"A" Bets: 0-0
"B" Bets: 0-0
"C" Bets: 0-0
Overall Chase: 0-0, +/- 0 units
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gluck Xpertcapper!
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Originally posted by XpertcapperFINAL CARD, June 9th BEST BET and JM Plays:
BEST BET PLAY: Oakland ML -105 (1 unit)
JM SYSTEM PLAY: NYY RL+1.5 -165(1 unit)
YTD:
BEST BET Plays: 4-1, +2.49 units
JM System Plays :
"A" Bets: 0-0
"B" Bets: 0-0
"C" Bets: 0-0
Overall Chase: 0-0, +/- 0 units
YTD:
BEST BET Plays: 4-2, +1.44 units
JM System Plays :
"A" Bets: 0-1
"B" Bets: 0-0
"C" Bets: 0-0
Overall Chase: 0-0, +/- 0 unitsComment -
Plays will be posted by 3pm pst.
YTD:
Xpert's Daily Plays: 0-0, +/- 0 units
Xperts BEST BET Plays: 4-2, +1.44 units
JM System Plays:
"A" Bets: 0-1, -1.6 units
"B" Bets: 0-0, +/- 0 units
"C" Bets: 0-0, +/- 0 units
Overall Chase: 0-0, +/- 0 unitsComment -
June 10th Plays:
Xpert's Daily Plays
Baltimore (ML) -104<1 unit>
Texas (ML) -156<1 unit>
Xpert's BEST BET Plays
Oakland (ML) -125<1 unit>
JM System Plays
NYY (RL+1.5) -175<2.6 units>
("B" Bet)
YTD:
Xpert's Daily Plays: 0-0, +/- 0 units
Xperts BEST BET Plays: 4-2, +1.44 units
JM System Plays:
"A" Bets: 0-1, -1.6 units
"B" Bets: 0-0, +/- 0 units
"C" Bets: 0-0, +/- 0 units
Overall Chase: 0-0, +/- 0 unitsComment -
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we made it tonight
Bet B 1-0! =D
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