MLB Totals Observation

hotcross · 09-22-17, 05:12 PM

I know what you mean, but it seems difficult to track accurately. Totals juice lines bounce around, especially the final hour before game time. So say you use the Closing Number well that might have been only available 5 minutes before game time. I could be wrong here, but I don't think so.

As was pointed out in another thread, baseball line movement seems to be less of a reliable indicator, or perhaps different from what we expected in past years.

Back to your question, a couple years ago I did well on -115 totals and never good taking the other side -105 line. Did not see those results this year. Anything -120 or higher -125, -130, etc proved dangerous by having to overcome that juice when it lost.

One more thing for Totals, I don't believe in buying points which increase the juice for the same reason. Used to do it and way more than 50% lost...led me to realize if I'm thinking about buying points it means I'm on the wrong side!!!

Zmoney · 09-23-17, 05:37 PM

Hmm...apprec your response

Ya I can see the variance considering the changes leading up to game time for sure...

are you talkin about buying points in hoops and football or totals in mlb

I usualyl buy all the time...not because i think im on the wrong side, but bc I know how SICK vegas is on how close they get...so it seems to come thru for me alot

Also, I dont do it when str8 betting bc that of course does get expensive...I usuallys do it on my parlays

To me, when I lean a side of total before looking at the juice in MLB...for ex, if i like under but the juice is on the over.. i almost wont even bet it anymore

really feels like they know sometimes

hotcross · 09-24-17, 09:10 PM

Originally posted by Zmoney

Ya I can see the variance considering the changes leading up to game time for sure...

are you talkin about buying points in hoops and football or totals in mlb?

I was talking about baseball totals, saying not worth buying points. I don't bet much basketball. Comment about football below...

People have strategies, I have known guys who love buying a full point for their baseball totals, say if they're going under 9.5 on a particular game, buy it up to 10.5 for that extra insurance. But my personal results over the long-term, buying didn't work for me because I'd lose enough of them and the juice kills me that much more.

However what you said about including totals in a PARLAY - maybe buy points (0.5, or 1, or even 2 points) could make more sense and I have done that before....but still stand by my comment that it didn't work for the best over the long-term....Assume I win the parlay with two games totals involved say I take both games unders and let's say the results of those games did go way under the total, so I was right about the under - - AND DIDN'T NEED TO BUY THE POINTS. So I won the parlay but it didn't pay nearly as good as would have been with the original -110/-115/or +100 whatever lines....because my lines with the buy points were say -150...follow me? And on the other end when I lose the parlay including the buy points, it didn't help anyway, right? All that was accomplished was juicing the lines on myself. How often does the game total land exactly on 10 in my example??? Not very often. Are you buying like 5 runs or something - don't have to answer that, but see what I'm saying?

Rather than buying points, nowadays I consider selling points. For example, think about a "pitchers duel" game with a listed total on 6.5 that ends up final score 7-5. Just this past Friday Sep.22, the Marlins at Dbacks game with Greinke starting had 10 total line, that game score final 11-13. If you sell points instead of ever buying, you have +plus money and so wouldn't even have to win 50% of these to get ahead. Now imagine having a couple of those lines in a parlay....instead of going "safe to win" buying points....sell points and get a beefy payout when it hits...much much beefier. Kinda like parlaying couple of runlines instead of moneylines.

Thinking out loud here, not saying I know it all.

Wanted to say about tracking the totals juice lines, my point is that even if you track the closing line, or opening line, it just seems to be a moving target. Some game totals don't change all that much, but many games bounce around. So using any sort of tracked history of the juice doesn't seem like a precise indicator. Would I like to see the data? yes. Anyone aware of where to find this juice line data, preferably in table format?? I've seen a couple websites that have line history data but its not in workable format, only for viewing on the site.

Final thought - other sports.
Football totals AND spreads my results in the past with buying points have been similar to what I'm saying about baseball, so no more buying points for me. I'm not a teaser player, some people are.

The comment I said "if I'm think about buying points I'm on the wrong side" goes for football. If I like New England but they are -13.5 and the moneyline is astronomical high, so start saying, well let me buy this down to -10 so its safer and maybe will push and get rid of the hook 1/2......
If I cannot get comfortable playing the side/or total I like without buying points = For me then it means play the other side without buying points, take the dog at +13.5.

It just seems to work that way when I look at my own results. Your mileage may vary.

I don't think the books really know, sometimes I admit getting paranoid that way. Some games do feel fishy how the result just fits into the line, but it's a very very small fraction of percent of all games.

Hockey love the sport. Totals are almost always 5.5 goals on all games. Sometimes over 5 with juice, Sometimes total of 6. But majority all games 5.5....books don't care going deeply into figuring out hey this game will be high scoring lets set a line of 8 goals....never happens. I know hockey not popular widely bet sport, but it illustrates the point books not that devious about the lines they post.

Mike Huntertz · 09-24-17, 11:23 PM

Good stuff,