MLB Leans~Thursday 6/4

jellobiafra · 06-04-09, 07:24 AM

Alright I'm going out there on a limb today. When this line was released it was supposed to be McCarthy vs. Sabathia, and the total was set at 10. When they announced it would be Wang for the Yankees, the line jumped to 11.5 - justifiably so. Wang has been horrible and anyone would have to be crazy to back this guy on an under with his 16+ ERA and his 30+ ERA his past 3 outings. But I have been hearing reports that he was getting it together down on the farm. And I don't think the Yankees would have ever brought him back up to get hammered again and completely destroy his confidence. Plus, I saw his first action back in relief the other day vs CLE and I've gotta tell you - I think Wang is back. The fastball was staying low and diving like it should....and sitting in the low to mid 90's to boot.

The idicators on this one are weak. Everything about McCarthy is "under worthy" today, but I already talked about Wang's past performance record. The trends don't even line up the way I like them to here. So everything about this one is saying stay away, except my gut. I know there are at least a couple people who have been tailing me on these and on this particular play I advise extreme caution, but I'm rolling with:

TEX/NYY under 11.5

peterpan19 · 06-04-09, 07:29 AM

and I thought ck would start the thread again today...but whatever...

NYM -120
DET +113 ...they will avoid the sweep...and I just believe Willis will be better today and the knuckelballer will stink again today...

thats it for now...but only small plays

GL

cocknocker · 06-04-09, 08:24 AM

No problem boys, I have a few of my own and I will explain in detail how I arrived at the decision to play them later on today.

Giants -105 Game 2 (Cain)
Texas+140
Red Birds-1.5 +120
Braves-129

oBaMa_MaNiA · 06-04-09, 08:42 AM

Originally posted by peterpan19

and I thought ck would start the thread again today...but whatever...

NYM -120
DET +113 ...they will avoid the sweep...and I just believe Willis will be better today and the knuckelballer will stink again today...

thats it for now...but only small plays

GL

There's huge line movement ML for NY Mets!

BL · 06-04-09, 09:03 AM

Hey guys!
Already booked:

TEX/NYY under 11.5
Toronto- RL +170

Leaning Giants and Astros

cocknocker · 06-04-09, 09:36 AM

WHIP

Cubs 1.45
Braves 1.23

Advantage Braves

Power Rankings

Cubs +120
Braves-120

Actual line

Braves-129

Advantage Braves. The line is spot on and may rise

Slugging% over last 3 games

Cubs .347
Braves .420

Advantage Braves

My pick Braves -129

**************************************** *****************

WHIP

Cincy 1.40
Red Birds 0.72

Advantage Red Birds

Power Rankings

Cincy+174
Red Birds-174

Line

Red Birds-162 (It is now at -180 with movement)

Advantage Red Birds

Slugging% over last 3 games

Cincy .396
Red Birds .418

Advantage Red Birds

My pick: Red Birds-1.5 +120 to maximize the value given

**************************************** ************************
WHIP

Giants (Cain Game 2) 1.31
Wash 1.33

Advantage Giants

Power Rankings

Giants-152*
Wash+152

Actual line

Giants-108

Advantage Giants as they are grossly undervalued for this game

Slugging% over last 3 games

Giants .470
Wash .458

Advantage Giants

My pick: Giants-108 Game 2 (Cain)

**************************************** ****************************

WHIP

Texas 1.38
NYY 4.83

Advantage Texas

Power Ranking

Texas-102
NYY+102

Line

NYY-230 (Now down to -142)

Advantage Texas as there is a false favorite in this game

Slugging% over last 3 games

Texas .333
NYY .381

Advantage NYY

My pick: Rangers+140

oBaMa_MaNiA · 06-04-09, 09:38 AM

Nice CK. Definitely like the Braves and Giants game.

What's your opinion on the Bluejays?

peterpan19 · 06-04-09, 09:43 AM

Originally posted by oBaMa_MaNiA

There's huge line movement ML for NY Mets!

but that was to be expected...hell its a small play only...

SoonerGreg · 06-04-09, 09:47 AM

June 4th Plays:

Rangers ML (+150)
Mets ML (-120)
White Sox RL -1.5 (+120)
Marlins RL -1.5 (+135)
Cardinals RL -1.5 (+120)
Giants GM2 ML (-110)

GL everyone!

Hoss · 06-04-09, 09:53 AM

Dumb question but what does WHIP stand for.

thegenix · 06-04-09, 09:58 AM

Originally posted by Hoss

Dumb question but what does WHIP stand for.

Walks and hits per inning pitched.

UndersSuck · 06-04-09, 09:58 AM

WHIP = Walks+Hits per Innings Pitched

thegenix · 06-04-09, 10:13 AM

No one on Randy today?

hockeytown71 · 06-04-09, 10:27 AM

At first I wasn't going to go against Zambrano in his first game back off beating up the Gatorade dispenser. Now, I see it's against the Braves with Jurrjens (whom I like) on the mound, and they just aquired Nate McClouth. Now seeing that CK has the Braves, I guess that's 3 major reasons to jump on the Braves today!

It also looks like Big Papi may be STARTING to put something together. He hit the ball well yesterday, just in the wrong Park. I wanted to know if anyone has any thought on the Det/Bos Over 10. I'm just not sold on the D'Train yet and see 2 avg pitchers against 2 strong lineups. Oh, and both pens (Det Especially) are iffy...

Bos/Det Over 10

cocknocker · 06-04-09, 10:31 AM

Originally posted by thegenix

No one on Randy today?

It's tough to get to one's own personal Super Bowl Day, and then have to sit around for three hours thinking about what it will be like if you win it and all. But to also have to carry those emotions over to the next day is a recipe for disaster. Cain is a money pitcher. He shut down the Mets out here when they last visited to help the G-Men avoid a sweep. Better play on Cain

thegenix · 06-04-09, 10:36 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

It's tough to get to one's own personal Super Bowl Day, and then have to sit around for three hours thinking about what it will be like if you win it and all. But to also have to carry those emotions over to the next day is a recipe for disaster. Cain is a money pitcher. He shut down the Mets out here when they last visited to help the G-Men avoid a sweep. Better play on Cain

Thanks for the opinion CK. I already took the game with Cain was just wondering if anyone was backing Randy today. I personally won't be.

jellobiafra · 06-04-09, 10:39 AM

Originally posted by hockeytown71

I wanted to know if anyone has any thought on the Det/Bos Over 10. I'm just not sold on the D'Train yet and see 2 avg pitchers against 2 strong lineups. Oh, and both pens (Det Especially) are iffy...

Bos/Det Over 10

Fwiw, I don't ever play a total with Tim Wakefield pitching. You just never know what you're going to get.

Good luck.

hockeytown71 · 06-04-09, 10:43 AM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

Fwiw, I don't ever play a total with Tim Wakefield pitching. You just never know what you're going to get.

Good luck.

I see what you're saying and thanks! I'm leaing with you as well on that Yanks/Tex under. It already dropped from 11.5 to 11 with my local. I may just go with Under 6 in the first 5. I hate unders with these 2 teams. But like you said... it's kind've a "gut" play.

Tex/Yanks Under 6 in 1st 5

RoagBettor · 06-04-09, 10:45 AM

I'm on Bos/Det over 5.5 1H and Tampa Bay RL

jellobiafra · 06-04-09, 10:57 AM

Originally posted by hockeytown71

.... that Yanks/Tex under. It already dropped from 11.5 to 11 with my local.

Holy crap. I just checked BetJam where I booked this at 11.5 5 hours ago. It's down to 10.5 now. I don't know whether that makes me feel better or more worried.

I've been posting my pick for the next day in this thread at night for just this reason. The last 3 out of 4 I've posted have shown line movement in my favor by noon the next day. Guess maybe that makes me a square if the public is pounding the same plays as me, but I'm getting there first and they are winning more than losing so I'm gonna keep doing what I'm doing.

ger25pic25 · 06-04-09, 11:24 AM

guys what's your opinion about Mets?

SportsChic · 06-04-09, 11:27 AM

Pirates to win today...Line too wierd to take the Mets I think. I also like McCutchen in the lineup today and Ohlendorf had been pitching well. I put a unit on them.

ragiche · 06-04-09, 11:44 AM

Tigers ML (15x). I agree what peter said.They will avoid a sweep as they are one of the good record at home.1st 2 pitchers of the last 2 games are newbies.And now they bring on willis who is a vet,eventhough his not pitching very well lately i think he will bring his a game today against the redsox.And he wants to show everybody that he still got the arm, and what a perfect timing that will be and against the redsox.

peterpan19 · 06-04-09, 11:47 AM

adding Tor as early play too...Toronto only lost 1 series this year at home...

peterpan19 · 06-04-09, 11:49 AM

and now LAA scores...damn it...money is already burning...now lets hope Lackey sucks again...Toronto has the bats to light him up for sure...

peterpan19 · 06-04-09, 11:50 AM

looks like NYM was the sucker bet of the day once again...

SportsChic · 06-04-09, 11:52 AM

I jumped on Pirates ...the line definitely didnt look right.

thegenix · 06-04-09, 11:54 AM

Ah 3-0 Angels already! Damn it.

peterpan19 · 06-04-09, 11:55 AM

ok Tallett is toast...get the kid out of there and do something now...3 runs and 1 out...1 man on base and all he does is throwing balls...

cocknocker · 06-04-09, 11:56 AM

2 nice hot and quick wins to start the day!

peterpan19 · 06-04-09, 11:57 AM

...hell forget about the Mets...big money is on Toronto...

thegenix · 06-04-09, 11:58 AM

And 4-0 Pirates? Damn. First two games of the day aren't working out for me so far.

peterpan19 · 06-04-09, 11:58 AM

4-0 PIT...oh my good...and 3-0 LAA...need some huge comebacks early on

peterpan19 · 06-04-09, 12:06 PM

..and Lackey looks great today...what else is new ?...