Mlb 8/05/17

KeyElement · 08-05-17, 01:05 PM

8/05/17
101-115-7, RoR–6.93% (vs 11/10 odds 48.8%)

Tigers +140, FG, VerHagen / Miley
Red Sox -297, FG, Shields / Pomeranz
Royals -126, FG, Hernandez / Duffy
BOL

Tigers: I caught a little flack yesterday for laying Paxton at almost 3:2, but that is exactly what Orioles backers are doing today with Miley. But: Paxton showed me 79 cents more line value than Hammel, and Miley does not show any line value whatsoever versus anybody, including a first time starter. In fact, a first time starter is more likely to have a good day and register a quality start than is Miley. Figure the guy has a 50/50 chance. Miley has turned in a quality performance in only 38.1% of his chances. That constitutes a 3:2 favorite? Home field doesn’t cover it. Momentum doesn’t cover it, and the Tigers are lefty killers, both before and after the departure of J.D. Martinez.

Red Sox: Wise wagering on anything from Blackjack, to Craps, to a coin flip is a matter of odds versus probability. You apply probability every time you say “I think team xxx will win today” or “I think pitcher yyy can handle that team”. You bet on teams because mentally or mathematically or just with a hunch, you think they have the higher probability of winning. I try to use math + reason + experience to arrive at a true probability. Shields versus Pomeranz, based on their ratings, + CWS current level of performance versus lefty + BRS current level of performance versus righty + HFA = a win probability for the Red Sox of 93.3%. To lay -297 requires a win probability of at least 74.8%. A margin of 18.5% satisfies me just fine and an ROI of 33.7% is more return than most people are going to realize today on any of their investments.

Royals: All things must pass with time and King Felix is no more the pitcher he was five years ago any more than James Shields is. His skill numbers are declining and he is only 7-6 for quality starts and 5-8 in head-to-head wins. Danny Duffy is really just coming into his prime with a 6.3 points rating advantage over Hernandez in skills and a quality start record of 12-5. Duffy also has a negative head-to-head record at 7-10, but most of the negatives occurred when the Royals got off to a horrible start and gave him no run support. The offensive projections are very similar, but the Royals do have HFA and are coming off a home loss last night.