Ist Inning Prop - Breakdown By Teams for April and May

[netinfo]

Hi,

For those who are playing the first inning prop, here is a fairly accurate breakdown of this prop by teams during the last two months of April and May (April 5 to May 31). Though April is not supposed to be played as part of this system, I went ahead and added the stats for April just so I can have a bigger sample size. I figured that the combination of April and May might help towards a possible strategy for June.

There may be a few mistakes in my calculations, but they shouldn't significantly alter the percentages. If you find a mistake, you can post the correct record and percentage here. I rounded off the percentages.

Here is the breakdown (1st Inning Score)

........................................ .....Yes...... No...... %
Florida Marlins......................... 36....... 15...... 71
Cincinnati Reds........................ 34....... 15...... 69
New York Mets........................ 32....... 17...... 65
Los Angeles Dodgers................ 34....... 18...... 65
Pittsburgh Pirates.................... 32....... 18...... 64
Baltimore Orioles..................... 31....... 20...... 61
New York Yankees................... 30....... 20..... 60
Houston Astros........................ 29...... 20.......59
Toronto Blue Jays.......... .......... 31...... 22.......58
Kansas City Royals................... 29...... 21.......58
St. Louis Cardinals................... 29....... 22...... 57
Milwaukee Brewers.................. 29....... 22...... 57
Chicago Cubs.......................... 28....... 21...... 57
Texas Rangers........................ 28....... 22...... 56
Philadelphia Phillies................. 27...... 21...... 56
Tampa Bay Rays...................... 28...... 25...... 53
Minnesota Twins...................... 27...... 25...... 52
Oakland Athletics.................... 25...... 23...... 52
Los Angeles Angles ................ 25...... 24...... 51
Boston Red Sox....................... 26...... 25...... 51
Cleveland Indians.................... 26...... 26...... 50
Washington Nationals.............. 25...... 25...... 50
Seattle Mariners...................... 25...... 26...... 49
Colorado Rockies..................... 24...... 25...... 49
Atlanta Braves........................ 24...... 26...... 48
San Diego Padres.................... 24...... 26...... 48
San Francisco Giants............... 23...... 26...... 47
Chicago White Sox.................. 22...... 27...... 45
Detroit Tigers......................... 19....... 30...... 39
Arizona Diamondbacks............ 20....... 31...... 39

Possible strategies for June:

1. Bet Yes on 1st Inning Score for two Units anytime a team that has a 65% or more plays a team that likewise has a 65% or more. This is a high percentage play. Blue vs Blue colored teams. Ex. Marlins vs. Mets.

2. Bet Yes for one Unit between teams that are 55% or more playing each other. This is a normal play. Blue vs. Green, or Green vs. Green colored teams. Ex. Orioles vs. Yankees.

3. Do not bet Yes on teams that have a 55% or more playing teams that have less than a 55%. Do not bet No either. They are unpredictable. Blue/Green vs. Purple/Red colored teams. Ex. Astros vs. Braves

4. Do not bet Yes or No on teams that are less than 55% playing each other. They are unpredictable. Purple vs. Purple, or Purple vs. Red colored teams. Ex. Angels vs. Mariners.

5. Bet No for one Unit between teams that have a 45% or less playing each other. Red vs. Red colored teams. There is not much action here, the only example would be White Sox vs. Tigers.

There are other strategies you can use. The above is just a suggestion.

netinfo

[TodaysAction]

Hi,

For those who are playing the first inning prop, here is a fairly accurate breakdown of this prop by teams during the last two months of April and May (April 5 to May 31). Though April is not supposed to be played as part of this system, I went ahead and added the stats for April just so I can have a bigger sample size. I figured that the combination of April and May might help towards a possible strategy for June.

There may be a few mistakes in my calculations, but they shouldn't significantly alter the percentages. If you find a mistake, you can post the correct record and percentage here. I rounded off the percentages.

Here is the breakdown (1st Inning Score)

........................................ .....Yes...... No...... %
Florida Marlins......................... 36....... 15...... 71
Cincinnati Reds........................ 34....... 15...... 69
New York Mets........................ 32....... 17...... 65
Los Angeles Dodgers................ 34....... 18...... 65
Pittsburgh Pirates.................... 32....... 18...... 64
Baltimore Orioles..................... 31....... 20...... 61
New York Yankees................... 30....... 20..... 60
Houston Astros........................ 29...... 20.......59
Toronto Blue Jays.......... .......... 31...... 22.......58
Kansas City Royals................... 29...... 21.......58
St. Louis Cardinals................... 29....... 22...... 57
Milwaukee Brewers.................. 29....... 22...... 57
Chicago Cubs.......................... 28....... 21...... 57
Texas Rangers........................ 28....... 22...... 56
Philadelphia Phillies................. 27...... 21...... 56
Tampa Bay Rays...................... 28...... 25...... 53
Minnesota Twins...................... 27...... 25...... 52
Oakland Athletics.................... 25...... 23...... 52
Los Angeles Angles ................ 25...... 24...... 51
Boston Red Sox....................... 26...... 25...... 51
Cleveland Indians.................... 26...... 26...... 50
Washington Nationals.............. 25...... 25...... 50
Seattle Mariners...................... 25...... 26...... 49
Colorado Rockies..................... 24...... 25...... 49
Atlanta Braves........................ 24...... 26...... 48
San Diego Padres.................... 24...... 26...... 48
San Francisco Giants............... 23...... 26...... 47
Chicago White Sox.................. 22...... 27...... 45
Detroit Tigers......................... 19....... 30...... 39
Arizona Diamondbacks............ 20....... 31...... 39

Possible strategies for June:

1. Bet Yes on 1st Inning Score for two Units anytime a team that has a 65% or more plays a team that likewise has a 65% or more. This is a high percentage play. Blue vs Blue colored teams. Ex. Marlins vs. Mets.

2. Bet Yes for one Unit between teams that are 55% or more playing each other. This is a normal play. Blue vs. Green, or Green vs. Green colored teams. Ex. Orioles vs. Yankees.

3. Do not bet Yes on teams that have a 55% or more playing teams that have less than a 55%. Do not bet No either. They are unpredictable. Blue/Green vs. Purple/Red colored teams. Ex. Astros vs. Braves

4. Do not bet Yes or No on teams that are less than 55% playing each other. They are unpredictable. Purple vs. Purple, or Purple vs. Red colored teams. Ex. Angels vs. Mariners.

5. Bet No for one Unit between teams that have a 45% or less playing each other. Red vs. Red colored teams. There is not much action here, the only example would be White Sox vs. Tigers.

There are other strategies you can use. The above is just a suggestion.

netinfo

Thanks for posting this for those who didn't have it recorded/tracked for them self.

[netinfo]

No problem

Take care,

netinfo

[RoagBettor]

Thanks for doing this, I was wondering what the percentages were for all teams. I knew Florida, Mets and Dodgers were hot but didn't know the Reds were also.

[netinfo]

The Reds caught me by surprise too!

netinfo

[accuscoresucks]

wow bro
nice homework sheet well done

[netinfo]

By the way, for those who are not too familiar with what the percentages mean, the highest (blue) percentage means that for the first inning, the team will score and/or be scored upon more so than the other teams. It means that such a team has a strong offense and/or a weak pitching/defense in first innings.

Likewise, the lowest (red) percentage means that for the first inning, the team will not score and/or not be scored upon more so than the other teams. It means that such a team has a strong pitching/defense and/or a weak offense in first innings.

netinfo

[netinfo]

wow bro
nice homework sheet well done

Thanks bro!

netinfo

[peeiempee]

According to this system plays for Monday 6/1/09 are:
Yes 1st inning:
1 Unit Mets/Pirates
1 Unit Brewers/Marlins
1 Unit Reds/Cards

[cocknocker]

I'm not smart enough to figure all of this shit out. As the author, you already know what I'm gonna do.

[spal2811]

wow,

great work netinfo.

to a profitable june

[RkD KiD]

great work...but shooooooosh

[netinfo]

According to this system plays for Monday 6/1/09 are:
Yes 1st inning:
1 Unit Mets/Pirates
1 Unit Brewers/Marlins
1 Unit Reds/Cards

As peeiempee posted, those three are the plays for June 1 in accordance with this revised system.

I'm not smart enough to figure all of this shit out. As the author, you already know what I'm gonna do.

It would be good to compare the results of the selective plays of this revised system versus the general plays of the original system as designed. At the end of June, we can then determine which system resulted in a higher output of profits (Units). The original system has proven in the past to be quite profitable, let's see if revising the system in this way will result in a bigger profit, at least for this test case of June.

I, or others here, will try and keep a tally for this revised system, in comparison with the tally for the original system.

wow,

great work netinfo.

to a profitable june

Thanks bro, we'll see what June brings us!

great work...but shooooooosh

Oh trust me, the books already know about this!

netinfo

[netinfo]

By the way, I first got the idea of breaking down the plays by teams by reading the success that the Marlins were having with this prop, as posted here by JerseyShop101, then I figured I should look at all the teams, to see which ones were the most successful, and just play those.

I hope my premise here is right, that selectively playing those teams, rather than just randomly play all teams, will result in a higher profit. We'll see.

netinfo

[aneurysm00]

Interesting stats netinfo. Good work.

However, I feel that the profitability of the system lies in the volume of bets being made and won. So even if you're hitting around 55% for the season, that translates to a big payoff.

If you followed this yesterday, you would probably break even or suffer a small loss as opposed to be being up roughly 11 units (betting 3 units a game) if you played all games (10-5 on Sunday). On the other hand, using these filters would have greatly reduced the losses during the painful 12-23 record over the previous three days. Like you said, this needs to be back tested to see how it compares to the original version.

[woodyman]

good work netinfo, lets hope we can work out a strategy that can get us a higher win %

[showtime2000]

Great woork netinfo, thanks for the breakdown. Let's cash June!

[Vreston]

Thanks for the research!
Are you going to continue it?

[sweetjones55]

Wow thanks a lot net info. I was looking for these stats yesterday. Really appreciate it.

[bigjonson]

According to this system plays for Monday 6/1/09 are:
Yes 1st inning:
1 Unit Mets/Pirates
1 Unit Brewers/Marlins
1 Unit Reds/Cards

So what do you feel is the strongest play here?

Marlins/Brew Crew?

In other words do we average out the percentages against each other which would make the Mets?pirates play the #1 pick.

Also we should really factor in the starting pitcher here.

Historically speaking veteran pitchers typically get stronger as the game goes.

So they will give up a run or two early and shut them down from there.

Just my opinion on the matter. Great info. I had a HORRIBLE May and I need to bounce back.

I need a lock like no tomorrow.

Got some change?????

[sweetjones55]

All of Andrew Miller's (marlins starter) starts have been a YES.

[solobass]

thanks you saved me a lot of time today, i was going to do the same thing. i am running numbers six ways from sunday trying to squeeze as much as i can from this. best of luck today!

[solobass]

also people, use some common sense. yesterday i laid the wood (max bet + vig on -120, straight on anything worse) big time. for the three years that i have crunched the numbers (2006, 2007, 2008) only once has this system lost 4 days in a row. a few times a year it will go on a 3 day negative run, and next time it happens LAY THE WOOD.

[waiverwire]

Ummm...what?

I really don't understand a lot of the logic in the posts in this thread.

It seems to be that any bet on first inning scoring should be based primarily on:

1. Starting pitcher quality.
2. Quality of hitters in the top 4-6 spots in the lineup.
3. Possibly past results for the SP in the first inning of games.

Anything else is just including a lot of 'noise' that confuses the analysis.

[bigjonson]

Ummm...what?

I really don't understand a lot of the logic in the posts in this thread.

It seems to be that any bet on first inning scoring should be based primarily on:

1. Starting pitcher quality.
2. Quality of hitters in the top 4-6 spots in the lineup.
3. Possibly past results for the SP in the first inning of games.

Anything else is just including a lot of 'noise' that confuses the analysis.

I agree that more info should be used before making the decision but stats don't lie.

74% is 74% right?

[Panekkkk]

Last time CIN/REDS played all 3 games had a run in the first inning.

Netinfo, have you looked back at other years? Somehow I have a feeling that over the course of the full season most teams will regress to the mean. If that's true, the fact that Florida has hit so heavy means that they are due for a drought. Any data on that?

I'm still thinking that playing all is the way to go or just avoiding the bottom plays.

Great work!

[solobass]

I agree that more info should be used before making the decision but stats don't lie.

74% is 74% right?

yes this is true but you have to account for positive and negative fluctuation. do you think the order the teams are listed in now by win % is the same order they will be in for the rest of the year? NO TEAM will go 70% for a full year I am sure that will be history in the making. the data presented is a great guide to catch positive fluctuation and teams with hot 1-5 hitters for the short term. the data presented by netinfo (solid stuff, we have to crunch our own numbers none are available on other sites) should be used to exploit hotter teams for the immediate short term.

remember my old quote "trends are as likely to discontinue as they are to continue"

[waiverwire]

I agree that more info should be used before making the decision but stats don't lie.

74% is 74% right?

74% is only 74% if you're trying to predict the past.

[peeiempee]

Regressing to the mean is the negative aspect of gambler's fallacy. As cappers (educated bettors) we can only rely on trends to make an educated discision. You can either go with the trend if you think a team will continue their performance or you can fade them if you think they will go cold. Sure a team can go on a cold streak, but at this point it is just as likely they will continue their current performance as they are to not continue. But either way it will still be somewhat of a 50/50 bet eliminating all trends. I myself, rely on trends, so I am playing all 3 today until otherwise.

[peeiempee]

74% is only 74% if you're trying to predict the past.

Same logic can be applied to cappers on and off this board. CK, Wang, Sexy MIT, sox all had about a 70% 1st and 2nd round playoffs, I don't see anyone fading them and I don't see them hitting at 20% either. People are still tailing. Point is you have to rely on trends until the trends tell you other wise.

[solobass]

Regressing to the mean is the negative aspect of gambler's fallacy. As cappers (educated bettors) we can only rely on trends to make an educated discision. You can either go with the trend if you think a team will continue their performance or you can fade them if you think they will go cold. Sure a team can go on a cold streak, but at this point it is just as likely they will continue their current performance as they are to not continue. But either way it will still be somewhat of a 50/50 bet eliminating all trends. I myself, rely on trends, so I am playing all 3 today until otherwise.

solid post indeed my friend. you have no idea how many times i tried to catch the cavs (nba) losing at home. what a ridiculous regular season record and that was history.

anyway i am working on a lot of stuff right now, running more data on 1st innings and have been working on a new mlb model that has shown some promise. best of luck!

[MrMonkey]

[QUOTE=aneurysm00;1899453]Interesting stats netinfo. Good work.

However, I feel that the profitability of the system lies in the volume of bets being made and won. So even if you're hitting around 55% for the season, that translates to a big payoff.



Excellent assumption aneurysm00!

MrMonkey

[solobass]

Same logic can be applied to cappers on and off this board. CK, Wang, Sexy MIT, sox all had about a 70% 1st and 2nd round playoffs, I don't see anyone fading them and I don't see them hitting at 20% either. People are still tailing. Point is you have to rely on trends until the trends tell you other wise.

well 70% is because of some SERIOUS talent. fading those cats would be detrimental to your finances.

do you think we will have 5 MLB teams with that win percentage? i am not fading any particular teams in the first innings it is not that kind of party. however i do use the pythagorean sabermetric formula (with my own tweaked exponent) as part (6 other calculations) of my regular capping equation because it helps identify teams heading for a slide and others picking themselves up.

[solobass]

[quote=MrMonkey;1899845]

Interesting stats netinfo. Good work.

However, I feel that the profitability of the system lies in the volume of bets being made and won. So even if you're hitting around 55% for the season, that translates to a big payoff.



Excellent assumption aneurysm00!

MrMonkey

you are mostly right. 55% (may finished 56.3%) is a big payoff if you are using the dynamic roll principles outlined by cheme82. with these odds (they are improving slightly right now) and flat betting you are leaving money on the table and not in your pocket in my opinion. the efforts of netinfo, myself and others are an attempt to avoid some of the losses, increase the winning % and squeeze more juice from the orange. for me, i am utilizing the dynamic roll and betting 4.1% per game in May, 3.3% in June/July and back to 4.1% in August/September. as far as i have studied that follows general trends as to the most profitable months historically. as peeimpee has stated trends are a gamblers friend and the more historical data/sample size the better in my opinion.

[solobass]

this is my sheet of wins by month hopefully it does not get butchered here. ex 32w = 32 more wins than losses. for ranking purposes (near the bottom) i have left out October. there is a different method for that madness outlined by the man/myth/legend/slam dancer CK

April May June July August September October Year
2006 32w 59w 37w 55w 23w 27w 7L 194
2007 39w 62w 10w 30w 58w 65w 7w 232
2008 14L 37w 18w 15L 54w 51w 22w 157
2009 12w 55w

averages here do not contain 2009 data
AVG 19w 52.7w 21.7w 23.3w 45w 47.7w 7.3w
#6 #1 #5 #4 #3 #2 194 (ranked by average profit)