MLB - Thursday, 6/29/17

[LT Profits]

3 MLB Sides Thursday

Pirates +111 (5 Dimes)
Mets +125 (5 Dimes)
Padres -110 (5 Dimes)


YTD: 295-312-16, -3.46

Totals Coming

[LT Profits]

6 MLB Plays Thursday

6 MLB Plays Thursday

Rangers / Indians OVER 9.5 -105 (Heritage)
Pirates +111 (5 Dimes)
Rays / Pirates UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Mets +125 (5 Dimes)
Twins / Red Sox OVER 10 -105 (Heritage)
Padres -110 (5 Dimes)

[44 Mag]

Is Cleveland @ 60% with Kluber pithing??? And how about Kershaw ??? I am also thinking of going against Shields.....

[LT Profits]

Is Cleveland @ 60% with Kluber pithing??? And how about Kershaw ??? I am also thinking of going against Shields.....

Easily over on both counts.

Cleveland is in fact 75% (-300)! Combination of Kluber and model hating Cashner.
Dodgers are 67% (-204).

As for Shields I get Yankees 56% (-127), Cessa nothing special either.

[44 Mag]

Easily over on both counts.

Cleveland is in fact 75% (-300)! Combination of Kluber and model hating Cashner.
Dodgers are 67% (-204).

As for Shields I get Yankees 56% (-127), Cessa nothing special either.

Roger. Thank you.

[Conor McBettor]

LT, you never consider taking a -1.5 when your model shows -300 or something crazy like that?

[chosen4th]

What total number do you get for the cle/Tex game?

[LT Profits]

What total number do you get for the cle/Tex game?

10.6

Cleveland 6.8, Texas 3.8

[LT Profits]

LT, you never consider taking a -1.5 when your model shows -300 or something crazy like that?

Odds on the -1.5 are almost always inflated on huge favorites.

[Deucerd]

Hey LT, when you say somebody's xx%, for example Cleveland is 75%. That means model gives 75% chance to win? I'm assuming.

[biggie12]

GL today LT i need the tribe to come up with a win

[LT Profits]

Hey LT, when you say somebody's xx%, for example Cleveland is 75%. That means model gives 75% chance to win? I'm assuming.

Correct.

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

7 MLB Plays Thursday

Rangers / Indians OVER 9.5 -105 (Heritage)
Cardinals +118 (Heritage)
Pirates +111 (5 Dimes)
Rays / Pirates UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Mets +125 (5 Dimes)
Twins / Red Sox OVER 10 -105 (Heritage)
Padres -110 (5 Dimes)

[SOSANA]

LT Profits,

Your in Costa Rica? If so might be coming down for conference and would like to meet you and have a beer if possible.

Curious what numbers your getting for MIA today.

BOL on your card.

[LT Profits]

LT Profits,

Your in Costa Rica? If so might be coming down for conference and would like to meet you and have a beer if possible.

Curious what numbers your getting for MIA today.

BOL on your card.

No I am in PA. Same climate!

I get Miami 52% (-108), note my play on Mets +125.

[LT Profits]

Another MLB Addition

8 MLB Plays Thursday

Rangers / Indians OVER 9.5 -105 (Heritage)
Cardinals +118 (Heritage)
Pirates +111 (5 Dimes)
Rays / Pirates UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Mets +125 (5 Dimes)
Twins / Red Sox OVER 10 -105 (Heritage)
Yankees / White Sox UNDER 10 +100 (Heritage)
Padres -110 (5 Dimes)

[xraygord]

Don't like PIT.

[dtd069]

i agree with xray... Rays have a 58% change to win. Value on rays for 1 unit.

[Waterstpub87]

No I am in PA. Same climate!

I get Miami 52% (-108), note my play on Mets +125.

Where you at in PA LT? Are you a Yinz? PA is Pennsylvania right?

[xraygord]

Where you at in PA LT? Are you a Yinz? PA is Pennsylvania right?

Palestinian Authority

[LT Profits]

Where you at in PA LT? Are you a Yinz? PA is Pennsylvania right?

Ranshaw, about one hour from Hershey, 90 minutes from Poconos, two hours from Philly.

I am a transplanted New Yorker, born in Brooklyn, moved to Middle Village Queens at age 13. Came to PA after getting married.

[LT Profits]

i agree with xray... Rays have a 58% change to win. Value on rays for 1 unit.

I have PITTSBURGH 52% (-108), I am high on Taillon. Archer grades out slightly better, but Pirates grade out better in other areas.

[LT Profits]

I have PITTSBURGH 52% (-108), I am high on Taillon. Archer grades out slightly better, but Pirates grade out better in other areas.

Also note my Under play, +111 was worth taking in expected low scoring coin-flip.

[FUqer]

I get Rays -111 and total right at 8, with Archer surprisingly graded only 10.3% better than Taillon, with 6.2% bullpen advantage for the Pirates. I wanted to play the Rays until I ran the numbers.

I've had big sample SDQL Under trends for every game this series and the first two hit and another one tonight.

UNDER: Rays/Pirates (460-230 +25.6% ROI)

230-460-36 (-0.64, 33.3%)

avg total: 7.8

over / under: -$26,955 / +$20,634

ROI: -34.0% / +25.6%

[dtd069]

mets at plus 134 now.....

[JayDr3am]

anything on the brewers LT

[dtd069]

Lfg mets!

[xraygord]

I have PITTSBURGH 52% (-108), I am high on Taillon. Archer grades out slightly better, but Pirates grade out better in other areas.

Looks good.