JJ MLB picks

[jamesjMidwest]

Touts and louts

Paying for advice is not a new or uncommon business. Doctors, lawyers,
and consultants have been around since the first civilization evolved.
And of course, we in the U.S. seem particularly willing to pay for
specialized advice, particularly advice that could make or save us
money.

No where do there seem to be more businesses offering advice for sale
than in sports gambling. Advertisements for sports gambling consultants
(known as "touts") seem to be everywhere: on television shows, in the
Las Vegas rotation schedule, in sports magazines and on the Internet.
These touts profess to have something that you, as a sports gambler,
should be willing to pay for... an ability to identify winning
selections in various sporting events.

While there are some ethical and honest sports selection services, by
far the vast majority are simply marketing organizations that prey on a
gambler's desire to win. Dishonest touts have devised many ways to make
gamblers think they are purchasing some kind of special information.
These services claim to have "scouts" in the field... informants at
practice sessions... computerized analysis of trends... "insiders"
talking with coaches, following players off campus... you name it. In
reality, these dishonest services are merely marketing machines that
spend the vast majority of their energy using high-pressure marketing
techniques on gullible customers who are desperate for winning
information. Unfortunately these customers almost always end up paying
their bookmaker, as well as the tout service.

What follows are several of the various "angles" that touts will use on
unsuspecting sports gamblers. Even some honest touts use variations on
these tactics to increase revenue, because, let's face it... the tout is
trying to make money selling his selections, so just like any above-
board business, he's trying to find ways to make you buy more of his
products and services.

My goal with this document is to make gamblers aware of the tactics
they'll encounter if they choose to use a tout service. Also, I have
included a short section on the economics of paying for tout services
(something most gamblers never think about).

Again, I want to emphasize that there are in fact some HONEST touts out
there. These guys work hard to help out players who don't have the
skills or time necessary to handicap and find winning selections.
However, these honest folks are definitely in the minority.

As a side note... the word "tout" is a slang expression first used by
the English to describe people who watched race- horses in order to
obtain information for betting purposes. Today's touts claim to be doing
the same for various sporting events; but, as you'll see in this
article, many are nothing more than fast-talking salesmen trying to
separate you from your money.

[jamesjMidwest]

1. PAY ONLY IF YOU WIN

Scenario: The tout will only charge you if the play wins; otherwise,
they give you your money back. Some touts, rather than giving refunds,
will give you some extention of their service (e.g., "I'll win my super
lock this weekend, or you get my picks for the month of November
absolutely free!")

THE SCAM: This marketing scheme can be effectively leveraged by both
honest and dishonest touts, but in most cases this is not a very good
deal for the customer.




The problem is that a dishonest tout can easily assure himself of
a profitable weekend by giving out both sides of the game... half of
his clients are given one side of a game; the other half get the other
side.

Let's say the tout has 100 clients; he gets $100 for his "lock" play,
which means he collects $100 x 100 = $10,000 from his clients. His lock
is on the Notre Dame/Pitt game; he gives 50 clients Notre Dame -14, and
the other 50 clients Pitt +7. Let's say Notre Dame wins and covers; he
keeps $5,000 from the 50 clients who won, and refunds $5,000 to the
clients who lost. He nets a cool $5,000 for DOING NOTHING.

The touts who give an extension of service come out even better, because
they get to keep all the money, and only have to give you some
sorry-$ssed picks. This gives them a chance to talk to you regularly,
and they'll use that opportunity to try and sell you their "really good
plays" or locks (which will be backed by a similar guarantee, of
course.)

[jamesjMidwest]

JJ's Newsletter

DON'T LIKE TO SHOP? IT'LL COST YOU...I have many friends who wager on sports who would put more effort into looking over the menu at Burger King than they ever would at making a sports gambling selection. One area that particularly hurts these guys is that they have only one "out." That is generally less of an issue in football (especially pro football) because by Saturday or Sunday morning the lines are pretty well settled, and are pretty much the same everywhere (big FB bettors will tell you they STILL shop extensively, though.)

In baskets and MLB, the lines usually come out that morning (or even the night before), and the games are played that day or night. Thus, the line can fluctuate significantly during the short time period between the release of the line and the start of the game.

The bookmakers have many basketball games to deal with in a short time period each day. That means they can't hone the line down like they do in football, and they don't have the advantage of letting the line "adjust" over the course of several days (sometimes up to a week) like they do with football. MLB is a little less hectic for the books but still can move around and vary from book to book.

The result of all this is that lines can vary a lot from one book to the next. There may not be huge variations, but a half-point or two, or .10 on the money line, can make a big difference at the end of the season.

I guarantee you this can make a HUGE difference. If you turn 12 games from pushes to wins, or losses to pushes (or even losses to wins) that is a significant boost to your bottom line. An extra .10 or .15 here and there throughout the MLB season adds up to dollars.

Too much work? Too much hassle? Of course, that's up to you. If you're a recreational player, keeping track of multiple outs is a pain. But, if you don't have a variety of line options, it is costing you money, plain and simple.

That's it for now...
JJ

[jamesjMidwest]

Touts - Scenario 2: SHARE OF THE PROFITS

Scenario: The tout requests little (or no) money upfront, but wants a
"cut" (usually 10-20%) of your overall profit each week. This sounds
good, because you don't pay if you lose, and you pay a proportionate
amount depending on whether you win, right? You simply tell the tout how
much you'll wager per unit, and every time you call the tout, he'll tell
you how many units to bet on a particular game. At the end of the week,
if you have made a profit, you either A) send the tout a percentage of
the profit, or B) he charges your credit card for his share of the
profits.

The Scam: This actually seems reasonable on the surface. After all, the
tout doesn't make anything unless he can make you profitable, right? The
first problem here is that if the tout DOES have a losing week, it costs
him nothing, but YOU still have to pay your bookmaker, based on your
agreed-upon $'s per unit. So, if the tout has a bad week, he breaks even
(or, has only his expenses to cover), but you get nailed.

Second, note that most touts who use this procedure assume that each
week is a new beginning, so if their picks win $1,000 one week, and lose
$1,200 the next, they'll take a cut of the winning week, and get nothing
for the losing week. So the tout made some money, even though you are
down $200 (plus the cut the tout took) for the two-week period.

Third, the tout can manipulate the number of units to play based NOT on
the strength of the play, but on how the week is unfolding. As an
example, let's say the tout wins his first three days of the week, and
has you at +15 units. Do you think this guy is going to release a bunch
of 10-unit plays? No way; he wants to close the week with a profit, so
he'll get conservative, even if the selections warranted a stronger
play. Now, suppose the tout is -15 units going into the last two days of
the week... how do you think he'll rate his plays? His only chance of
making any money is to play some big unit plays, and hope he can bail
you out. He'll release a couple of big plays trying to get you
profitable. These plays may not really be that strong; he's just trying
deperately to get a profit out of you for the week. See the problem? A
tout who does this doesn't want to bury you, but he may do just that, if
he goes cold while trying to dig you out of a hole. Who is left to pay
off the book if this happens? The tout breaks even, you break your @ss
paying the man.

Finally, the worst situation you could get in with this scam is to give
the tout a credit card number so they can automatically charge your
account for their piece of the action when you win. If you do this, I
guarantee you will find games that you thought had lost, but were
declared winners by the tout (because the tout had a different line), or
find that they start jacking up the units so much that you have to quit
playing, but the tout keeps charging your card for their "fee" if they
happen to win a few games. Trust me, giving a credit card number to just
about ANY tout is a mistake, but giving them carte blanche to charge
like this is suicide.

[doubledime]

Monday, July 10, 2017

Great finish to the pre-all-star break with 3-1 including a big win on the Reds +1.45.

Happy break everyone. See you Friday.

Since 6/12/17:

Money Line plays = 59 -44 (+ 23.50)
Totals = 1- 2 ( - 1.15)

Overall = 60 -46 (+ 22.36)

Nice first half JJM Also, some well written information.

[jamesjMidwest]

Tout Scenario 3: LOCKS, STEAM, PLAY-OF-THE-YEAR

Scenario: The tout has a "lock," can't-miss play of the year. He claims a "documented" record that is extraordinary on "this type of play." Frequently a tout with which you already have a business relationship will call you wanting an additional fee for these types of plays.

The Scam: First, there is no such thing as a "lock." While we'd all like to believe in a "sure thing," it simply doesn't exist. Touts use these “locks” to entice more money out of you (akin to the "multiple levels of service" outlined in #4.) Let's put it in perspective...even what appears to be the best selection in the world will probably only hit 75% of the time. You can still lose one in four! That's as close as any reputable handicapper would ever come to having a "lock." And, remember anything can happen once the game starts. The running back can break his ankle, the QB can get knocked out, a couple of turnovers can occur. I repeat for those of you who didn't get it...THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A LOCK.

Also, if you get a Las Vegas rotation schedule, you'll usually see ads for various locks of the year, locks of the month, locks of the week... NFC locks, Monday Night Football locks, Underdog locks, etc. Realize that these schedules are printed MONTHS in advance...how could a handicapper know that far in advance whether the QB is healthy, or what the weather will be like, etc. It doesn't take much thought to realize that these guys are simply making up this crap as they go along...they give you whatever selection they want, and call it a "lock."

The worst thing a gambler can do is find himself playing a disproportionate amount of his bankroll on a single game, and these “locks” encourage you to do that. Don’t.

[jamesjMidwest]

Tout scenario 4: UPSHIFTING TO A "BETTER" SERVICE

Scenario: Several touts set up their business so that varying types of bettors can afford them. The tout offers everything from an inexpensive weekly e-mail with selections (for the small-time players), all the way up to a very expensive "Gold" or "Platinum" club for high-rollers, with various levels of service in between. The touts will frequently offer special prices for those players wanting to "upshift" to the next level of service.

The Scam: No matter which "level" you join, you soon find out (either through some publication of theirs, or because they call you) that the service just above where you're at is "on fire, hitting 79% over the last two weeks," or something like that. The next thing you know you have "upshifted" to the better service (for an additional fee, of course.)

This ploy appeals to those of us who feel we generally get what we pay for, so paying $100 per season probably doesn't get us as strong of plays as we'd get for $500. Even if you buy the $100 e-mail subscription, trying to start out small, you soon are dying with envy because you hear that the $750 service is cleaning up, or the $1000 service just hit a 4-team parlay last week.

What's wrong here? Well, when you pay more for something, you usually want to know what makes the more expensive product or service worth the extra money, right? So, how can sports selections be that much stronger? Inside information, better handicapping, what?

The fact is, there is usually little or no difference in the quality of selections from level to level in these types of organizations. In fact, touts use the varying levels so they can:

a) Manipulate their record. If one of the levels gets hot, they can yak on and on about going 4-0 last week in the "silver club," even though their other three levels went a combined 4-12 ATS.

b) Squeeze more money out of you. Once you've paid $300 for the "bronze club," it's not a very big jump to get to the next level. If the bronze club is losing, they tell you, "sorry about that, but the Silver club is making tons of money, you should move up." If (for some odd reason) the Bronze club is WINNING, they'll tell you, "sure, you're making some money here, but the Silver club is on FIRE and making three times what you're making in the Bronze Club."

c) Give out more selections. Having four levels of service could allow a tout to put out 15-20 games. Heck, chances are ONE of the levels of service is having a winning day! And of course, that's the one they'll blabber about in their newsletter, or on their website.

d) Have lots of "locks," specials, etc. Each of the various levels can have their "Lock of the Year," or other such nonsense, thus giving the tout many opportunities throughout the year when they can call you and say, "the Silver club has it's NFC Central 'Lock of the Year' going today, you ought to pay the upshift fee and get in on this!"

The final word on these types of services: they are simply set up this way so they can leverage the various levels, giving them ways to look good even when they aren't, and to extract more and more money from you.

[jamesjMidwest]

Friday, July 14, 2017

Great finish to the pre-all-star break with 3-1 including a big win on the Reds +1.45.

BAL +1.01 VS CHC (System projection: BAL -1.30)
DET -1.18 VS TOR (System projection: DET -1.52)
CIN +1.27 VS WAS (System projection: CIN -1.22)
MIA +1.03 VS LAD (System projection: MIA -1.22)
ATL +1.00 VS ARZ (System projection: ATL -1.22)
KC -1.12 VS TEX (System projection: KC -1.44)
SD -1.02 VS SF (System projection: SD -1.45)

Since 6/12/17:

Money Line plays = 59 -44 (+ 23.50)
Totals = 1- 2 ( - 1.15)

Overall = 60 -46 (+ 22.36)

[jamesjMidwest]

Saturday, July 15, 2017

That “thud” you heard was me taking a high dive into an empty pool yesterday. A very lousy 1-6 to start the 2^nd half. Many heart-breakers involved, but the bottom line is what counts.

TOR +1.37 @ DET (System: TOR +1.07)
BAL +1.20 VS CHC (System: BAL -1.26)
PHI +1.51 @ MIL (System: PHI +1.18)
CIN +1.57 VS WAS (System: CIN -1.02)
SD +1.35 VS SF (System: SD -1.10)
LAA -1.20 VS TAM (System: LAA -1.39)

Since 6/12/17:

Money Line plays = 60 -50 (+ 18.50)
Totals = 1- 2 ( - 1.15)

Overall = 61 -52 (+ 17.35)

[jamesjMidwest]

Sunday, July 16, 2017

Only two days back from the break and I have lost over half of my profits for the year. I know I am going with many big dogs and they will have ups and downs, but this is an absolute kick in the gonads to start the 2^nd half.

COL +1.30 @ NYM (System: COL-1.01)
BAL +1.30 VS CHC (System: BAL +1.01)
ATL +1.01 VS ARZ (System: ATL -1.19)
PIT +1.18 VS STL (System: PIT -1.11)
CHW +1.05 VS SEA (System: CHW -1.52)


Since 6/12/17:

Money Line plays = 61 -55 (+ 14.85)
Totals = 1- 2 ( - 1.15)

Overall = 62 -57 (+ 13.70)

[jamesjMidwest]

Monday, July 17, 2017

A profitable day yesterday after two dismal days. Lost a tight one with CHW but I’ll take anything in the positive column after the way I started out after the all-star break.

BOS +1.00 VS TOR (System: BOS -1.18)
BAL -1.15 VS TEX (System: BAL -1.40)
PHI +1.38 @ MIA (System: PHI -1.05)
KC -1.17 VS DET (System: KC -1.42)
OAK -1.05 VS TAM (System: OAK -1.43)

Since 6/12/17:

Money Line plays = 61 -55 (+ 16.34)
Totals = 1- 2 ( - 1.15)

Overall = 62 -57 (+ 15.19)

[jamesjMidwest]

Tuesday, July 18, 2017

3 out of 4 days back from the break have been disasters. Not sure what is going on…favorites are starting to roll so moderate to big dogs are not hitting very well right now. Also, teams you just can’t go against (HOU, WAS, CHC) for the foreseeable future, no matter what the value with the dog against them.

CIN +1.38 VS ARZ (System: CIN -1.15)
MIN +1.26 VS NYY (System: MIN -1.08)
KC -1.02 VS DET (System: KC -1.26)

Since 6/12/17:

Money Line plays = 62 -59 (+ 13.21)
Totals = 1- 2 ( - 1.15)

Overall = 63 -61 (+ 12.06)

[2daBank]

I feel your pain bud.. I usually pack it in at asb as by now books have pretty much figured these teams out and there simply isn't the value to be had there is in the 1st half where we get 5+ games a night where the dog has every bit as good a chance to win as the fav..

I decided to try and keep going this season but so far post break been a struggle, I'm losing tons of games in the 9th and there simply isn't as much to choose from on the card far as quality dogs go.

[jamesjMidwest]

Yes I have heard veteran MLB handicappers say that after the ASB it is much harder to handicap.

I am taking a break. If I find my way back to winning ways I'll start posting again.