I'm capping the card now. Gonna likely be light after yesterdays debacle. Shame after what I did at Belmont, but what can you do
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You'll getem back today Dex, your too good so don't let the 1 bad day get to you bro.
For today,
Toronto -117 (Toronto is a different team at home and look for Tallet to get the run support today not like in his last few games. As well, i believe CK or Jimbo, when teams come out of their losing skid they usually win conseuctive games)
Cincinnati +114 (Shoe with a 10 unit play! Got get my hands on that!)
GLAComment -
Not a lot of unders jumping out at me. The one I feel strongest about is BOS/TOR under 10. I'll play that.
I'm really trying to stick to just an under or two a day, but damn it's hard for me lay off FLA -106. What am I missing here with Johnson vs Redding. Why is this even money?? It's one of the strangest lines I've seen all year, imo. What am I missing?
If I were betting sides I would also take a long look at OAK +135 tonight. Looks like a solid dog to me. And if I played overs ATL/ARZ over 9 is just smacking me in the face and saying give me your money. But I don't play overs anymore (for the time being at least) so that's a no go for me.
I'm also going to tail shoe on CIN tonight. If he's 10 units strong on them I'll roll with.
But back to my question above - can anybody talk me out of FLA -106 this afternoon?Comment -
Adding,
Minnesota +118 (Price makes his 2nd career start, last outing he got shelllacked pitching 3 innings and over 100 piches to 10 runs. Liriano is 2-0 with a 1.21 ERA in three career starts versus the Rays.)
GLAComment -
cavs +2 (5x) - as i said the other night...some people will make sure there is a game 7. kobe is in the finals waiting for the king. i am not at all saying the game will be fixed, but lebron will get all the calls when he attacks the rim tonight.
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giants +1.5/-120 (2x - Autobet) - total of 7.5 or <, playing the dog on the moneyline at no > -150.
tigers -130 (2x) - verlander has a 1.40/.93 in his last 3, and a 1.29/1.03 career vs balt. tigers are 4-0 in his starts vs the o's.
phillies -1.5/-110 (2x) - hamels has a 2.84/1.20 in his last 3 and a 1.94/1.07 career vs the nats.
yankees -1.5/-110 (5x - Autobet) - sabbathia has a whip of 1.00 or < in his last 3 (.95) and carmona has a whip of 1.80 or > in his last 3 (1.98)Comment -
well, this just wasnt the day to go light
- i wanted to, but sometimes your hands get tied and you have to gamble.
in hoops i always liked to play 2-3 games per day, but in baseball im finding myself with 4-5 games per day. just how it is with double the amount of games per season (82 vs 162).
heres saturdays belmont card:
Comment -
Booked:
BOS/TOR u10
FLA -106Comment -
Toronto sending out lefty Brian Tallet against Boston at home today. The Sox counter is B. Penny. At first glance, Boston has excellent numbers against LHP, but if you dig a little deeper you'll see the 11-6 record with 3.58 runs scored off the starter is a little deceiving. Take out the games played against pitchers with a 4.5+ ERA (.5 higher than today's starter has as a starter) and that number drops to 2.37. Tallet has a much lower batting average against, and has much stronger daygame numbers than Penny. Tallet has been very good recently with a May ERA approaching 2 and a WHIP of 1.26 on the season. He's pitched six complete innings his last three outings (2R surrendered in each). Boston won't have an easy time stealing bases off Tallet and the famed Bosox plate discipline will factor less into things against a pitcher who rarely issues free passes.
Today's starter for the Blue Jays, faced Boston earlier, he pitched well allowing only 2 runs, but still suffered the loss.
Toronto home record: 17-6
Boston road record: 11-17
I was a little worried if teams returning to normal pitching after facing a knuckleballer have trouble, but a quick check revealed this to be unwarranted. The teams that have faced Wakefield thus far this season scored an avg. of 4.88 runs the next day, including some 8-9 run games and only one shutout.
Penny relies a lot on his fastball, and Toronto is a good fastball hitting team. Tallet is more versatile and has a broader repertoire, which he'll need to get the sox' gritty players out. I think he gets it done, now Toronto has ended the skid, they are back home and they've gotten over the fobia of not getting the runners in from ScoringPos. No chance the bullpen hasn't woken up smelled the coffee after they let Doc down.
I see a good chance for TOR to win the game here, line may be a little pushed by the Boston chase money?
I'm playing it ML.
2-2 yesterday, Oakland, man...gonna be a while 'till I trust themComment -
Harang, reds
10 units
Have a good dayComment -
Man Jello....I was thinking Bost/Tor OVER 9 1/2 -110...... Mainly because both pitchers recently pitched against the other team.... So both pitchers should be fairly fresh in the batters minds. At least thats my thinking
Also like Minn/TB OVER 9 -115 as both pitchers have been bad lately with Liriano having an ERA of 8.36 and a Whip of 2.21 for his last 3 starts.....And Price got smacked around in his 1st start at Cleveland on 5/25.
Also riding with the Mets +100.....As the have been hot lately winning 6 of their last 7, while Florida has been cold....Can't resist the Mets at Home + Money. Redding has been okay too....Good enough to make me like the Mets today over the struggling Marlins.
Streak Plays: I'm deciding to stop playing dogs at +1 1/2 and just leaving them at the + money.... I think this will be more profitable.
Bad day yesterday going 4-8 (-6.50)
Updated to 20-11 (+4.65)
Mets +100
Baltimore +120
Philly -235
Tex -145
Houston -140
SF +135
Good luck everybody
"Success doesn't just happen, it happens for those that take action"
-Donald J. Trump
Comment -
Added FLA, Redding can't get it done, they gonna sit on his fastball. Mets scoring little as of late, despite even playing WSH (ok that's mean). FLA gets good starting pitching today, Josh should be enough against a 5th starter.Comment -
Slic it was at 10 when I booked it an hour ago and it's dropped to 9.5. If you like it bet it man!
I go through all the games and look at situational stats, past performances, recent performances, trends, and then umps. The ump was the main thing scaring me away from this under to be honest, but when I finished it was still my strongest under lean.
I like unders because you are basically counting on 2 people to do their job. Fewer variables, imo. (There's more to it than that but that's basically what it boils down to for me). If you can find two players that you feel strongly will perform in a game, you should have a decent shot. Even if one struggles the other can pull it through for you. Playing overs you are betting on one or two guys to fail and for 2 entire lineups to produce. I hate betting overs.Comment -
Added Detroit. So for me it's:
TOR
FLA
DETComment -
Booked:
Marlins ML -120 This was a last minute decision and played it just because Johnson is on the mound.
Phillies RL -115 Hamels is back on track and pitching against the worst team in baseball.
Tigers ML -130 Verlander has been rock solid all year. No reason to go against him now.
Yankees RL -110 Sabathia looks awesome in his last 3-4 outings and the Yankees bats have been blowing up since A-Rod got healthy.
GL all!Comment -
Thanks for starting a new thread Dex......I was using the term "locks" as a joke......I even tried to go back in and edit the title afterwards and couldn't figure out how to do it.
I'm with the majority of you on FL, DET, and I like STL too.....and Shoes CINCY pick as well.Comment -
Plays from out of nowhere:
Toronto-106
Reds+112
Seattle-110Comment -
Astros look like a very strong pick. Rodriguez is filthy this year and Karstens is pathetic.Scared money don't make money
182-120-6 (60.26%) Final Total NBA Record over 308 plays
37-20-1 (65%) Record for the 2010 NBA PLAYOFFSComment -
wandy has really put it together this year.Comment -
Wandy got rocked last time out in CIN (doesn't reflect in his ERA but he gave up 6 runs in 4 innings) and he's not the same pitcher away from home.Comment -
A note from the edit room
I like the Tigers but I can't pay that kind of juice for a team on the road (-126). Plus the public is more on the Tiger side of things and the line dipped a bit from a high of -130. F*ck that. I have ridden Verlander, and am going to continue to do so. But those O's bats are the best in the league right now in the last 5 games. I can't go against them right now.
Toronto will win two in a row for the first time in what seems like forever. Time to get some of that money back. The Red Sox are throwing Penny out there. If he ddn't have the run upport that he has his record would be a lot worse. Believe it or not, the Red Sox are actually hitting a worse slugging percentage than the Blue Birds over their last three.
Blue Birds-106
Felix is simply on top of his game right now and accordingly he is given a line that indicates he can win anywhere at any time.The Angels are a grizzly bunch, but thier bats already weren't in order. Facing Felix won't help their cause. The Angels are 4th from last in the league over the last 3 games in slugging % (.315). The Mariners sit snugly in the middle of the pack hitting .437 slugging%. Palmer is up against a better hitting club and his light hitting club is up against a better pitcher. Not a good recipe.
Seattle-110
Harang has no business being an underdog in this game even with the positional injuries. As stated yesterday, it hasn't stopped the Red Leggins' from knocking the stuffing out of the ball. Hell, even in the loss last night they had more hits than the Brew Crew. I'll take the team getting the attention of the minority of bettors.
Red Leggins' +112Comment -
Booked Plays.
Det RL (5x)
Min ML (5x)
Oak RRL (5x)
Tor RL (3x)
Bos/Tor Over 9 (3x)
NBA:
Cle +2 (3x)Comment -
Loved those Lakers last night...Cavs will get it done tonight! Going to play some MLB baseball today and hopefully get my bankroll up enough to throw some serious cash on Lebron tonight.
Lets start with the early game and the Mets. I like plus money at home even though they have Redding on the mound. I think they will be able to put up enough offense to get it done.
1 unit to win 1.05 units on the METSComment -
Wandy doesn't like pitching in cold conditionsComment -
2 nice hot and quick wins to start the day off!Comment -
These pitches are made for walking...Comment -
Lemon, should have left out "alot", total average slightly better!
MrMonkey
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