MLB - Friday, 6/9/17

LT Profits · 06-09-17, 06:51 AM

3 MLB Plays Friday

3 MLB Plays Friday

Mets -111 (5 Dimes)
Mets / Braves UNDER 9.5 -105 (Heritage)
Angels / Astros UNDER 8.5 +105 (Heritage)

YTD: 231-250-13, -11.93

LT Profits · 06-09-17, 07:30 AM

FYI, you may see fewer Totals for the foreseeable future as I am trying not to lay more than -110 on those until I get my Juju back.

slayer14 · 06-09-17, 07:37 AM

Braves game went under yesterday

LT Profits · 06-09-17, 07:45 AM

Originally posted by slayer14

Braves game went under yesterday

How is that relevant?

LT Profits · 06-09-17, 07:48 AM

Through yesterday, June 8th:

Sides 99-108, +6.45
Totals 132-142-13, -18.38

dirtycash66 · 06-09-17, 09:27 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

1 MLB Side Friday

Mets -111 (5 Dimes)

YTD: 231-250-13, -11.93

Totals Coming

A season low. Cant understand why people are even tailing your picks

5mike5 · 06-09-17, 09:45 AM

Originally posted by dirtycash66

A season low. Cant understand why people are even tailing your picks

most people can't understand why all u do is wake up to troll this thread on a daily basis either

Rich Boy · 06-09-17, 09:59 AM

I remember LT being +26 units at one point, wtf happened here?

Dynasty3669 · 06-09-17, 10:00 AM

Going the wrong way...

dirtycash66 · 06-09-17, 10:05 AM

Originally posted by 5mike5

most people can't understand why all u do is wake up to troll this thread on a daily basis either

What you call trolling some might call positive criticism

chosen4th · 06-09-17, 10:12 AM

Originally posted by dirtycash66

What you call trolling some might call positive criticism

No.. you need to get a life and it's creepy how obsessed with LT you are

Waterstpub87 · 06-09-17, 10:27 AM

LT, you should consider making your threads pro only. It seems that only non-pros are here trolling.

LT Profits · 06-09-17, 11:41 AM

4 MLB Additions

7 MLB Plays Friday

Tigers / Red Sox OVER 11 +105 (Heritage)
Mets -111 (5 Dimes)
Mets / Braves UNDER 9.5 -105 (Heritage)
Orioles / Yankees UNDER 9.5 -110 (Heritage)
Angels +163 (5 Dimes)
Angels / Astros UNDER 8.5 +105 (Heritage)
Phillies / Cardinals OVER 9 -105 (Heritage)

dirtycash66 · 06-09-17, 11:42 AM

Originally posted by chosen4th

No.. you need to get a life and it's creepy how obsessed with LT you are

I wouldn't say that I'm obsessed, I'm just confused. I cant figure out why you clowns keep tailing and asking for advise from a man who's clearly losing at baseball betting.Thats like me asking OJ Simpson for advise on how to fix my marriage.

stackz125 · 06-09-17, 12:18 PM

I highly doubt he LT gives a single fuk about the trollers

slayer14 · 06-09-17, 12:34 PM

Originally posted by stackz125

I highly doubt he LT gives a single fuk about the trollers

He to old to give a damn

slayer14 · 06-09-17, 12:36 PM

Why the total so high for braves game at 9.5 with 2 decent pitchers starting in harvey and tehran

FUqer · 06-09-17, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by slayer14

Why the total so high for braves game at 9.5 with 2 decent pitchers starting in harvey and tehran

Mets Away This Season

16-5-3 (3.79, 76.2%)

avg total: 8.5

over / under: +$1,050 / -$1,193

ROI: +38.5% / -46.5%

Braves at Home last two seasons

46-30-4 (1.17, 60.5%)

avg total: 8.0

over / under: +$1,276 / -$2,070

ROI: +14.1% / -23.5%

This Season

Harvey 1.91 HR/9 and 6.07 FIP
Teheran 1.89 HR/9 and 5.70 FIP

Total seems kind of low, I came up with 10.5

Waterstpub87 · 06-09-17, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Mets Away This Season

16-5-3 (3.79, 76.2%)

avg total: 8.5

over / under: +$1,050 / -$1,193

ROI: +38.5% / -46.5%

Braves at Home last two seasons

46-30-4 (1.17, 60.5%)

avg total: 8.0

over / under: +$1,276 / -$2,070

ROI: +14.1% / -23.5%

This Season

Harvey 1.91 HR/9 and 6.07 FIP
Teheran 1.89 HR/9 and 5.70 FIP

Total seems kind of low, I came up with 10.5

10.5 is a monster total in baseball. I get 9 Median, 9.115 Average. Happy to take the plus money odds at 9.5 I got yesterday.

FUqer · 06-09-17, 01:12 PM

Originally posted by Waterstpub87

10.5 is a monster total in baseball. I get 9 Median, 9.115 Average. Happy to take the plus money odds at 9.5 I got yesterday.

Doesn't happen much, but as you can see, both teams great on Overs and both pitchers have been stinking it up. Sometimes I don't agree with the numbers I come up with, but I have no probs with this one.

LT Profits · 06-09-17, 01:27 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Mets Away This Season

16-5-3 (3.79, 76.2%)

avg total: 8.5

over / under: +$1,050 / -$1,193

ROI: +38.5% / -46.5%

Braves at Home last two seasons

46-30-4 (1.17, 60.5%)

avg total: 8.0

over / under: +$1,276 / -$2,070

ROI: +14.1% / -23.5%

This Season

Harvey 1.91 HR/9 and 6.07 FIP
Teheran 1.89 HR/9 and 5.70 FIP

Total seems kind of low, I came up with 10.5

I put more weight on long-term numbers than on season-to-date until shortly after the All-Star break, and both starters grade out well in that sense. Also Braves at home before this season is meaningless.

FUqer · 06-09-17, 01:36 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I put more weight on long-term numbers than on season-to-date until shortly after the All-Star break, and both starters grade out well in that sense. Also Braves at home before this season is meaningless.

Braves Home this Season

16-10-0 (1.71, 61.5%)

avg total: 8.6

over / under: +$520 / -$716

ROI: +18.0% / -25.2%

Have you had any luck with guys like Weaver with those long term numbers vs short numbers? Guys hit the end of the road at some point. Harvey and Teheran could possibly be heading there. Just saying.

44 Mag · 06-09-17, 01:49 PM

Originally posted by 5mike5

most people can't understand why all u do is wake up to troll this thread on a daily basis either

44 Mag · 06-09-17, 01:50 PM

Originally posted by slayer14

Why the total so high for braves game at 9.5 with 2 decent pitchers starting in harvey and tehran

You have it wrong. It is high BECAUSE of who is pitching.

LT Profits · 06-09-17, 01:51 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Braves Home this Season

16-10-0 (1.71, 61.5%)

avg total: 8.6

over / under: +$520 / -$716

ROI: +18.0% / -25.2%

Have you had any luck with guys like Weaver with those long term numbers vs short numbers? Guys hit the end of the road at some point. Harvey and Teheran could possibly be heading there. Just saying.

Oh starters get adjusted over time, Weaver has been downgraded several times the last few years. To put it another way, long term numbers are weighted heavier for recent seasons, I just think adjusting for CURRENT season before All-Star break is too soon due to sampling issues. Exceptions would be underlying issues like obvious change in velocity or pitchers adding a new pitch. But for the most part, I let them pitch it out over half-season or so before reacting to avoid recency bias.

And Harvey and Teheran are both young, they are nowhere near the end of the road.

FUqer · 06-09-17, 01:53 PM

These pitchers also faced their opponent 3 times each already this year, with Over going 5-1, and the only reason the Over didn't hit the one time is cuz ,the Braves gave up 6 runs and scored 0. The Braves scored 18 in those games and the Mets scored 15.

All I'm saying is the line appears justified to me.

FUqer · 06-09-17, 02:01 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Oh starters get adjusted over time, Weaver has been downgraded several times the last few years. To put it another way, long term numbers are weighted heavier for recent seasons, I just think adjusting for CURRENT season before All-Star break is too soon due to sampling issues. Exceptions would be underlying issues like obvious change in velocity or pitchers adding a new pitch. But for the most part, I let them pitch it out over half-season or so before reacting to avoid recency bias.

And Harvey and Teheran are both young, they are nowhere near the end of the road.

I understand your logic overall, and you know I respect you and have learned a lot from you, you're obviously more experienced at this. We just have a little disagreement about this number and I thought you was getting a bit defensive about it when all I do is show respect to you. It's all good.

They may be young but the talent may be going and then again, it could just be a phase or a bad season, it happens. I just think with about 12 starts into the season, is a little safer to rely more on this seasons numbers.

FUqer · 06-09-17, 02:11 PM

I broke one my rules of going into somebody's thread and posting something against one of their plays, I usually try to only post positive things relating to someone's play.

jjgold · 06-09-17, 02:23 PM

I think this is the last season LT will go with his models if he loses 30 units or more

He will have to make adjustments

LT Profits · 06-09-17, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

I thought you was getting a bit defensive about it

Not at all, where did you sense that.

I was just explaining my philosophy of being more of a long-term guy that dies not tend to knee-jerk to recent outings, I believe more in regressing to the mean.

FUqer · 06-09-17, 02:51 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Not at all, where did you sense that.

I was just explaining my philosophy of being more of a long-term guy that dies not tend to knee-jerk to recent outings, I believe more in regressing to the mean.

Maybe more of a projection because I broke my rule. It's easy to do in here, because so many people ask questions and even though their for you, it's hard for me not to try to give my thoughts.