What am I missing? (MLB 5-29)

[Justin7]

Cincinnati/Milwaukee (Cueto/Looper). I bit early on Milwaukee, convinced the line would steam. It did, then it went back today. I'm on Looper at +100 which I still think is the right side, but I have to doubt myself when the market tells me to go to hell (which it does about 30% of the time on these sides).

Why does the market buy the Cueto cool-aid? He's had a great start this year, but I think reversion to the mean will rear its ugly head. I give Milwaukee a moderate advantage at bats (1/4 run), and a small pitching advantage including bullpen. Add in home advantage, and they're now a dog?!?

Milwaukee (Cueto/Looper) +100, good to -110. Currently at +108.

[Willie Bee]

Not sure you're missing anything, Justin, or the guys setting the line are more impressed with Cueto's work against the Brewers than they are Looper's outings vs. the Reds.

[onthewhat]

Cueto is a good pitcher. Justin, I think you rely too much on predictions and not enough on season performance. Are you still relying on Zach Greinke's season projections rather than his season performance so far?

Guys just start to "get it" with experience. Cueto has always had solid stuff, but he is maturing now I think with experience. He is a solid pitcher, and I would probably throw his season projections out of the window.

[Justin7]

Cueto is a good pitcher. Justin, I think you rely too much on predictions and not enough on season performance. Are you still relying on Zach Greinke's season projections rather than his season performance so far?

Guys just start to "get it" with experience. Cueto has always had solid stuff, but he is maturing now I think with experience. He is a solid pitcher, and I would probably throw his season projections out of the window.

Cueto is just a random number generator, a sophisticated coin to flip. You think watching a coin for a few flips gives you a better foundation to predict it, rather than just going with the theoretical "heads" rate?

[Brock Landers]

Looper can be had, not a dynamic pitcher like Cueto. i'd say pass on this one, too tough to pick either way.

[Pecos Bill]

Cueto is just a random number generator, a sophisticated coin to flip. You think watching a coin for a few flips gives you a better foundation to predict it, rather than just going with the theoretical "heads" rate?

so your saying cueto has a 50% chance of pitching a good game.What about looper?

[AgainstAllOdds]

Justin you are the sharpest capper on SBR. Im sure Milwaukee will win regardless.

[onthewhat]

So do you think Zach Greinke is going to have a 6.00 ERA the rest of the year so his numbers even out with his projections?

Projections are stupid, you cannot predict stats.

[BouncedCheck]

Looper is a pitcher that lots of people like to fade, and rightly so. Cueto has been respectable this year, and the Reds are not a bad team, relatively speaking. Without having checked the overall records of these two teams lately, I'd guess they're probably close to each other in the standings. Neither team is good enough to win the World Series, but in that division, they're both going to hang around for a while. With both teams being pretty equal overall, the only real variables are to slightly favor the home team merely for being at home, and the starters. I guess most people are perceiving the starting matchup to favor the Reds more than being at home favors Milwaukee.

[InTheHole]

Justin you are the sharpest capper on SBR. Im sure Milwaukee will win regardless.

65% chance according to my models

[MonkeyF0cker]

Milwaukee has lost 5 of 6, averaging 2.0 runs and does not hit RHP particularly well. I have the offensive edge leaning slightly to the Reds in this one.

[alukk]

totally agree whi u justin

[LT Profits]

I hate to disagree so vehemently with Jutsin, but I think Cueto is coming of age and that his early season performance will be his normal standard for years to come.

[onthewhat]

I hate to disagree so vehemently with Jutsin, but I think Cueto is coming of age and that his early season performance will be his normal standard for years to come.

exactly

you can't take a kids numbers from when he was rushed to the big leagues and apply them for when he is coming of age.

[durito]

Projections are stupid, you cannot predict stats.

So, take every underdog out there and you should clean up right?

How do books set lines? Dart board?

[smitch124]

So, take every underdog out there and you should clean up right?

How do books set lines? Dart board?

Astrological charts and biorhythms...

[LT Profits]

I am partial to the ouija board

[20Four7]

I am partial to the ouija board

my board said play the under so I did......

[buffettgambler]

The market has materially bid up the price in 3 of the Cueto's last four starts (even more material than the up to date line move on today's game). As Cueto continues to pitch well, it looks like a potential double counting has taken place on the open, as oddmakers inflate his price because of current form and anticipation of a bid up by the market. The Brewers are underpriced here in my opinion (prior to any potential adjustment in intrinsic worth off actual vs. predicted lineups).

[Chi_archie]

Cueto's learning curve is steep..... coins don't mature, practice, take drugs, learn a new pitch, have an arm injury, ect.....