| 6/2/17 41-55-4, RoR–8.32% (vs 11/10 odds 48%) Braves +103, FG,Foltynewicz / Arroyo Rays -112, FG,Odorizzi / Bergman BOL Braves: Foltynewicz has added a lot of consistency to his game but had a tough time of it his last game at San Francisco. I expect a bounce back effort tonight as he has not strung poor efforts back to back, nor has he been a bad road performer. Arroyo is way past his prime and wins only with the help of his offense, which is currently no better than the Braves. I think we have a false favorite here. Teams with losing records are often undervalued on the road. Rays: I look for two reversals of form in this one with Odorizzi bouncing back from a poor performance and Bergman regressing from one way over his head. The Rays are not to be feared against any right-handed starter as they continue to be MLB’s most consistent producer with a 24-9-5 record versus righty in the starter-starter matchup category. The Rays are 3-2 in Jake’s last 5 road starts and part of Christians mystique is his home 7.1 inning shutout performance versus Oakland, which should surprise no one, his only home start. His win at Boston was also impressive, but he did not fare so well at Toronto and the Nationals really clocked him. Currently, of those four opponents, only the Blue Jays have a higher probability rating on offense than the Rays. |
-
-
Add: Marlins -115: Corbin/ Urena
This line was dropping so I let it float and lost 3 cents of value while my back was turned. That has little or nothing to do with the probable outcome though and what I find as the edge here is Patrick Corbin. Shelby Miller and Patrick Corbin were two of the D-bax worst problems last year, posting 5-15 and 7-17 quality start records, respectively. Both had a decent spring and looked to bounce back, but Miller fell apart quickly and now Corbin is following suit. After a very encouraging April he has dropped like a rock in May and now looks far below average again. Urena has been surprisingly steady and has posted a 4-1 quality start record. The Marlins do not show a great record versus lefty starters, but those have been pitching losses, the offense has been just fine.Comment