MLB Leans ~ Friday 5/29/09

[Dexter]

mets (RL - 2x) - pelfrey is hot 2.70/1.10 era/whip last 3, as are the mets (5 of 6)

over rockies (2x)- young has a 8.03/1.86 on the road while marquis has a 7.12/1.58 at home

over orioles (3x) - im not sold on dontrelle - especially away from home facing the strong bats of baltimore in a hitters haven like camden yards. bergesen has been bad at home in 4 starts with a 5.48/1.82

rangers - (RL - Game 2) - feldman has a 1.89/1.00 in his last 3 and a 2.00/.88 at home.

angels (RL - 2x) - i have a feeling the angels are about to go on a run, and i wanna be on them from the start for 2x a pop until they lose.

__________________

nuggets -5.5 (3x) - simply following the trend from the last 2 games. denver is always one of my favorite home teams to play, and i feel they take game 6 by double digits in a must win.

[jellobiafra]

I've got 3 under leans, but only playing one of them - NYY/CLE under 9. Trends and situational stats...

I like WAS/PHI under and FLA/NYM under, but am definitely laying off the Mets. Pelphrey has a terrible history with the Marlins, and that's a red flag for me when considering an under. Dex, I think FLA is a live dog tomorrow.

[Dexter]

i like that yankee/cleav under....seems that lee always gets these high totals. i can see pettite bringing his A game vs an ace like lee. yanks just missed being a play for me at + money

[Dexter]

Game 6: Cavs (5x)

* we will see a game 7 - i think a few people will make sure of that

[jellobiafra]

I hit on the BOS/MIN under today (posted in another thread). Missed on DET/KC yesterday. I've been just focusing on unders the past few days... trying to find 1 or maybe 2 to play a day. It's my favorite thing to bet in baseball, being a purist and a pitching aficianado. I haven't been very successful picking sides and I really don't like betting overs. Something about being behind all those runs before the game starts. I think it's psychological, but for whatever reason I like betting unders and I'm going to focus on them for a while and see if I can have any success with them.

Good luck all.

[Dexter]

after a horrid start to the nba playoffs (playing 1 bet per day large) ive climbed back to be:

19-18-1
-2.6x

-time to get in the green and make some loot

[cocknocker]

I can't let this one ride. For tomorrow I like the following....

Reds+ ANYTHING
Atlanta+ANYTHING

[jellobiafra]

I can't let this one ride. For tomorrow I like the following....

Reds+ ANYTHING
Atlanta+ANYTHING

I like the Reds tomorrow too. Dex, this is one of those games from that Chance Harper article. The other two both cashed on the run line.

And you know how I feel about Jurrjens....



Good luck CK. Tough beat tonight on that 1H Cavs. Horrible beat.

[TheLock]

I agree with jello that the Marlins are a live dog tommorow. +155 and NYM have never seen West. Kid has good stuff. And as "hot" as the Mets are, FLA just did very well in Philly.

[Dexter]

Horse Players:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/horse-racing-betting/186993-belmont-park-2009-spring-meet.html

[Dexter]

I can't let this one ride. For tomorrow I like the following....

Reds+ ANYTHING
Atlanta+ANYTHING

there he is...

[Dexter]

I like the Reds tomorrow too. Dex, this is one of those games from that Chance Harper article. The other two both cashed on the run line.

And you know how I feel about Jurrjens....

Good luck CK. Tough beat tonight on that 1H Cavs. Horrible beat.

yup, that was a good read

i have a feeling the dbacks take down atl tomorrow....couldnt pull the trigger with trash like garland though

[shoebox]

FRI

NATS +140 3 units
Blue Jays +110 5 units

[Flyers09]

CK enlighten me with more info for fridays games.....

[Flyers09]

LOS [Billngsley -R]-110
CUB [T Lilly -L]-110

WAS [R Detwiler -L]+ 145
PHI [J Happ -L]-165

DET [D Willis -L]+ 105
BAL [B Bergesen -R]-125

BOS [Wakefield -R]-125
TOR [C Janssen -R]+ 105

[cocknocker]

Okay.. here we go... The Red Leggins' bats are hot .481 Slugging % with 9 homeruns and 5 doubs compared to the Brew Crew who are ice cold with an awful .256 slugging % with just 2 homers and 3 doubs. Now that is pretty good for the Cincy Crew who come into the game streaking winning 4 in row facing the Brews who are on a bad 5 losses out of their last 6. Cueto is already a better pitcher than Looper. The power rankings show that the Brews should only be a -109/+109 favorite, which means that Cincy has a fair shot. I'm going to leave it up to the readers to look up the record of the Red Leggins' against the Brewers.. oh never mind 7-3 straight up. Why be the one to mess with that? 59% of bettors are on Milwaukee already. I don't know why. The losing will continue. The bats are just not there anymore. The Red Leggins get it done hidden on a big schedule.

Red Leggins' +100

Atlanta has had a bad streak, but they have the guy on the bump who can get a win anywhere anytime. The bats are there for the Braves. They just need a quality start. Jurrjens will give them that and he is due for a correction. Hell wasn't he -200 or somethin' earlier this year? Neither one of these teams are lighting it up offensively, so you might as well take the plus money when two sputtering teams are playing each other. The Braves has lost 4 straight and this will be their get right game. I'll take the high end moneyline as these teams are 5-5 in games at Arizona, and I don't want the stress of having to cover a -1.5 spread for only a measley +130 payout. I'll play it smart and take the chalk. Better pitcher, better team, better situation. The power rankings show that Atlanta should be favored by -129. With the teams hitting darn near the same I'll take the team on the worse streak with but with the better guy on the bump.

Braves-125

[Kav]

i love the reds tomorrow too, THEY BETTER WIN THIS TIME! the last 2 times i bet on them i got screwed! Looper sucks ass, i cant believe he's the favourite tomorrow... GO CINCI!

+105 @ 5dimes

[Jimbo42]

What up!
Hey CK!

Booked:
Houston +108
NY Yankees +113
White Sox +112

Wow that is an ugly looking card... but I'm gonna get me them crumbs!
Also, will most likely play these all on the RRL...

I look to also play San Diego later as well..

GL

[pho3nix32]

lakers end the series tomorrow dex

[jellobiafra]

I'm playing the over in the LAL game.

So my two plays today are:


NYY/CLE under 9
LAL/DEN over 208.5


BOL everyone

[Panekkkk]

I really like TOR/BOS Under 10

In the last 5 years with Wakefield pitching vs TOR, no game has ever gone over 9 runs.

[cocknocker]

Cubs early-they need it more than the Dodgers and they are also out hitting the Dodgers over the last three games with a .523 slugging and 3 homers and 6 dubs compared to the Dodgers with 5 dubs and no homers. Lilly is serviceable and at this number he is a very capable pitcher. The money should alwys be like this for him, for he is around a -114 pitcher. The fact that he is at -102 is a great value. The Wrigley faithful will help the Cubs snap the Dodgers win streak. Billingsley is due for a correction. His record and ERA are terriffic but this isjust a bad spot for him as the Dodger bats have finally one cold in Manny's absence. This series looks like a good one to take the Cubs on

Cubs-102 HEAVY

[khaliagent]

I'm playing the over in the LAL game.

So my two plays today are:


NYY/CLE under 9
LAL/DEN over 208.5


BOL everyone

yankees under is my top play today...
ez money there bro.
good pick

[Flyers09]

Okay.. here we go... The Red Leggins' bats are hot .481 Slugging % with 9 homeruns and 5 doubs compared to the Brew Crew who are ice cold with an awful .256 slugging % with just 2 homers and 3 doubs. Now that is pretty good for the Cincy Crew who come into the game streaking winning 4 in row facing the Brews who are on a bad 5 losses out of their last 6. Cueto is already a better pitcher than Looper. The power rankings show that the Brews should only be a -109/+109 favorite, which means that Cincy has a fair shot. I'm going to leave it up to the readers to look up the record of the Red Leggins' against the Brewers.. oh never mind 7-3 straight up. Why be the one to mess with that? 59% of bettors are on Milwaukee already. I don't know why. The losing will continue. The bats are just not there anymore. The Red Leggins get it done hidden on a big schedule.

Red Leggins' +100

Atlanta has had a bad streak, but they have the guy on the bump who can get a win anywhere anytime. The bats are there for the Braves. They just need a quality start. Jurrjens will give them that and he is due for a correction. Hell wasn't he -200 or somethin' earlier this year? Neither one of these teams are lighting it up offensively, so you might as well take the plus money when two sputtering teams are playing each other. The Braves has lost 4 straight and this will be their get right game. I'll take the high end moneyline as these teams are 5-5 in games at Arizona, and I don't want the stress of having to cover a -1.5 spread for only a measley +130 payout. I'll play it smart and take the chalk. Better pitcher, better team, better situation. The power rankings show that Atlanta should be favored by -129. With the teams hitting darn near the same I'll take the team on the worse streak with but with the better guy on the bump.

Braves-125

thanks again CK

[SlicWilly3]

12 Teams today on the "Streak System"....So far so good....
Started 5/25 and since 16-3 +11.15

9 Favorites:

LA Dodgers -110
NY Mets -165
Cincy Reds -115
SF Giants -120
Clev Indians -125
Baltimore O's -115
Philly's -160
Pitt Bucs -135
Boston -110

3 Dogs:

SD Padres +1 1/2 -165
AZ D'Backs +1 1/2 -135
Minn Twins +1 1/2 -155

[SlicWilly3]

Other than the system plays I'm on:

LA/Cubs UNDER 8 -110

Wash/Philly UNDER 5 (1st 5 innings) -105

Denver Nuggets -3 1/2 (bought 2 pts) -150

Denv/LA OVER 207 1/2 (Bought 1 1/2) -140

Good luck fella's

[ragiche]

Gone 3-2 yesterday,so here are for today.

Chc PK (3x) Tailing CK.

Atl ML (3x) Tailing CK.

Cin ML (3x) Tailing CK.

Chw ML (3x) Tailing JIMBO.

Was RRL (3x) Tailing SHOE.

Tex RL (3x) Tailing DEXTER.

Laa RL (3x) Tailing DEXTER.

Tb RL (3x) My pick. Shields will stop the rays skid.

Stl/Sfo Over 7.5 (small) My pick. Cain 9.58 ERA against the cards,Pineiro 8.1 ERA against the giants.

[SportsChic]

Cubs in the early game...1 unit

[khaliagent]

Cubs in the early game...1 unit

good call,
I like lily at home and the price is a steal with billingsly having a rough outing the last time he pitched.

[khaliagent]

blue jays -105
I see the price going up so dont sleep on this.
get it now.!
the jays are due and jansen will be pumped to show the blue jay crowd that he still belongs.
also taking the under 10 at -125-- WAKEFIELD IS TOUGH TO SOLVE FOR THE JAYS

[Jimbo42]

Added: RRL on all three previous booked bets and

Booked:

Florida +150
Florida -1.5 +225

GL

[macadams]

LAD have extremely strong numbers against lefties, but if you look at the sched they've faced a lot of weak ass lefties and Lily is solid. Dodgers have the adv. of their pitcher giving up decidedly fewer home runs, but the wind is blowing in today @ +11. Cubs are after all that's happened only 4 back in the loss column and they sense a chance to hang in there until A. Ramirez comes back, that's when you pick up a quality starter like Lily. They have gotten key people back in the last week and they are playing at home, they really need this game. Billingsly likes to go for the strikes early, but Cubs have good numbers hitting at stuff in the strike zone (their z% figures are also on the rise). Billingsly had a rough time last time out and Wrigly field can prove a hard place to make adjustments. I like the Cubs here.

I also like the A's in the first game of the pair. Outman is on a real tear. A's have shown they can get up for him, first game is their best chance and they k n o w it. Outman can keep it on the ground and the A's can play defense. In the juice box I think Rangers' starter more likely to make a mistake before red hot Outman makes one so the HR disparity 'twixt the sides doesn't mean too much to me in this game.

For some reason, the betting public has decided to have elephant's memory on Willis and seem reluctant to "take the d-train", but hell, if it was a rotary he was coming back from you would look at his numbers now and say he'd turned the corner. I know his troubles were of the more cerebral kind, but I look at his recent numbers and I say he's turned the corner. Detroit can hit, this we know. Bergesen is more than human, O's play a solid game, but I can't help but thinking they've overperformed a bit as of late. Give me Detroit.

Looking at the MIN game now...

[khaliagent]

Added: RRL on all three previous booked bets and

Booked:

Florida +150
Florida -1.5 +225

GL

I liked this earlier but wasnt sure.
Now I am sold on it.
thanks for the extra confidence.
good luck.

[peterpan19]

slicwilly
how did the system work again...play against every team that lost 3 or more in a row and play every team that won 3 or more in a row...if the fav you take the ML and if the dog you take +1.5 ...right ?

GL

[peterpan19]

runners on 2nd and 3rd and the cubs cant score a run here....??...come on