MLB - Thursday, 5/18/17

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Sides Thursday

Pirates +120 (Bookmaker)
Blue Jays -106 (Bookmaker)


YTD: 165-162-11, +11.31

Totals Coming

[tradeout]

2 MLB Sides Thursday
Pirates +120 (Bookmaker)
Blue Jays -106 (Bookmaker)
YTD: 165-162-11, +11.31
Totals Coming

When did you place your bet on Blue Jays at these odds?

[LT Profits]

When did you place your bet on Blue Jays at these odds?

I always post few minutes after I get bets in, although now looks like game is off the board at Bookmaker. I would not lay more than -113 on this game, so would PASS at current market as best I see is -115 at Heritage.

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Plays Thursday

4 MLB Plays Thursday

Pirates +120 (Bookmaker)
Orioles / Tigers OVER 10 -105 (Heritage)
Blue Jays -106 (Bookmaker)
Red Sox / Athletics UNDER 9 -115 (Heritage)

[tradeout]

I always post few minutes after I get bets in, although now looks like game is off the board at Bookmaker. I would not lay more than -113 on this game, so would PASS at current market as best I see is -115 at Heritage.

I can assure you THAT bet was off the board already for 12 hours

[tradeout]

unless, of course, you bet at SBR Sportsbook

[delpiero7]

What's the reasoning behind the Pirates pick, LT?

[chosen4th]

Hey LT, dont mean to bother you, and i know you posted a few days ago but how have your totals been going, and whats your number on the Baltimore/Detroit total?

[barryt]

I always post few minutes after I get bets in, although now looks like game is off the board at Bookmaker. I would not lay more than -113 on this game, so would PASS at current market as best I see is -115 at Heritage.

I'm a bit confused as I thought the odds that you posted were just the odds you got (and were sort of a guideline for tailers to decide at which odds to bet) and independent of the selection, but now it seems there is more to it.
Does your selection "program" have a "line" input? Or is it open ended and it's just you that says"I would not lay more than..."
I've been tailing your sides on the basis that each pick is of equal expectation and I only play the ones wherein the odds is better than your win%, I.e positive expectation.
If, on the other hand, you have a specific odds limit for the play, that would be better info to convey rather than what you actually played at, as in most cases that line is already gone by the time I read it. So I check if the available odds are greater than your win % and bet using the Kelly calculator as to bet amount
tx
Barryt

[LT Profits]

What's the reasoning behind the Pirates pick, LT?

I actually get PIRATES 51% (-104). I have pitching even and Pittsburgh with better R/L H/A splits. I get that the last part is controversial based on this season only but the Pirates have underperformed vs. their projections to this point, and those projections are based on long term numbers. Season-to-Date is still weighted less than long term at this point.

[LT Profits]

I'm a bit confused as I thought the odds that you posted were just the odds you got (and were sort of a guideline for tailers to decide at which odds to bet) and independent of the selection, but now it seems there is more to it.
Does your selection "program" have a "line" input? Or is it open ended and it's just you that says"I would not lay more than..."
I've been tailing your sides on the basis that each pick is of equal expectation and I only play the ones wherein the odds is better than your win%, I.e positive expectation.
If, on the other hand, you have a specific odds limit for the play, that would be better info to convey rather than what you actually played at, as in most cases that line is already gone by the time I read it. So I check if the available odds are greater than your win % and bet using the Kelly calculator as to bet amount
tx
Barryt

I am always open to answering questions on what my line limit is on any play, if you have any doubts, just ask. I think it would be too cumbersome to post odds limitations with every single pick, I have enough on my plate already.

[LT Profits]

Hey LT, dont mean to bother you, and i know you posted a few days ago but how have your totals been going, and whats your number on the Baltimore/Detroit total?

Treading water at 94-88, +0.49

Remember thought I had a poor April with totals, they are 36-28, +6.10 in May.

As for Tigers, I am down on both starting pitchers and get 11.0 even after taking Cabrera out (Oddly was 11.3 with him so not as big a drop as you would expect)

[barryt]

I am always open to answering questions on what my line limit is on any play, if you have any doubts, just ask. I think it would be too cumbersome to post odds limitations with every single pick, I have enough on my plate already.

Tx for the reply. I'll just go ahead as I am :betting sides with a positive expectation between win% and line

[LT Profits]

Tx for the reply. I'll just go ahead as I am :betting sides with a positive expectation between win% and line

If I understood you, you are only betting Sides where you get better lines than me? If that is correct, you should have no worries in regards to line limits.

[RavensFan2k3]

I actually get PIRATES 51% (-104). I have pitching even and Pittsburgh with better R/L H/A splits. I get that the last part is controversial based on this season only but the Pirates have underperformed vs. their projections to this point, and those projections are based on long term numbers. Season-to-Date is still weighted less than long term at this point.

How do you rate the 2 pitchers?

[LT Profits]

How do you rate the 2 pitchers?

Both below average, Roark just a scant 2% better despite variance in common stats

[exlusive123]

Prices on LT thread for amusement purposes only. I wish I could bet prices 8c off available lines. It's nice to try to help people but there is no point in posting prices that you can't actually bet. I have suggested using Pinnacle or Cris prices because then if you choose to follow LT, you would have similar results. If he used real market prices his track record would no doubt suffer. If you shave an avg of 8c off the real market prices, even if you have no real opinion on the game you should win. LT should win more using the prices he posts. Maybe someone with time on their hands should adjust every play LT posts to the real prices and keep a separate track record, would be interesting and probably surprising to most here how big the difference would be

[SOSANA]

Prices on LT thread for amusement purposes only. I wish I could bet prices 8c off available lines. It's nice to try to help people but there is no point in posting prices that you can't actually bet. I have suggested using Pinnacle or Cris prices because then if you choose to follow LT, you would have similar results. If he used real market prices his track record would no doubt suffer. If you shave an avg of 8c off the real market prices, even if you have no real opinion on the game you should win. LT should win more using the prices he posts. Maybe someone with time on their hands should adjust every play LT posts to the real prices and keep a separate track record, would be interesting and probably surprising to most here how big the difference would be

This comment is ridiculous, you select your games and grab the best prices, if you think its going to win you take the line as you see fit. Hince grabbing games the night before when lines are better or waiting depending on matchup. Also you are suppose to use multiple books to shop for the best lines. Just be greatful LT is posting his plays and answers questions ya mook.

[LT Profits]

Prices on LT thread for amusement purposes only. I wish I could bet prices 8c off available lines. It's nice to try to help people but there is no point in posting prices that you can't actually bet. I have suggested using Pinnacle or Cris prices because then if you choose to follow LT, you would have similar results. If he used real market prices his track record would no doubt suffer. If you shave an avg of 8c off the real market prices, even if you have no real opinion on the game you should win. LT should win more using the prices he posts. Maybe someone with time on their hands should adjust every play LT posts to the real prices and keep a separate track record, would be interesting and probably surprising to most here how big the difference would be

I don't get what your gripe is, just get accounts at Heritage and 5 Dimes and bet before 8:00am ET, soon after I post plays. You are talking as if I have exclusive rights to the lines I post.

[pickle_texas]

Just ban him, LT

[LT Profits]

I don't get what your gripe is, just get accounts at Heritage and 5 Dimes and bet before 8:00am ET, soon after I post plays. You are talking as if I have exclusive rights to the lines I post.

Also both of my totals moved nicely after I posted, but you had time to get my lines.

[LT Profits]

Just ban him, LT

Na, seems to me he simply waits too long and chimes in only after the lines moved.

[exlusive123]

I had accounts at Heritage and 5 Dimes. Tony is a weasel at 5 Dimes, if you beat them, they put you on a spin and lower your max bet to $500. Heritage kicked me out a few times for winning. I don't have a gripe, maybe my message is misunderstood. I have a question for you LT, are you saying that the average guy following this thread has a chance to get the same prices you are posting on every game? You and I both know that answer is no. So, its my suggestion, I have no standing to gripe at you about anything, post prices that are widely available. If you would do that, it would be a fair way to keep track of what someone following your plays would profit or lose. If your too busy, someone else might want to.

[getlucky2win]

I am not allowed heritage. And dimes has me limited to 100max

[LT Profits]

I had accounts at Heritage and 5 Dimes. Tony is a weasel at 5 Dimes, if you beat them, they put you on a spin and lower your max bet to $500. Heritage kicked me out a few times for winning. I don't have a gripe, maybe my message is misunderstood. I have a question for you LT, are you saying that the average guy following this thread has a chance to get the same prices you are posting on every game? You and I both know that answer is no. So, its my suggestion, I have no standing to gripe at you about anything, post prices that are widely available. If you would do that, it would be a fair way to keep track of what someone following your plays would profit or lose. If your too busy, someone else might want to.

If you don't have accounts at 5 Dimes and Heritage, then I may be of very little use to you unfortunately since they get most of my action. But the average guy that does have accounts there can certainly get my lines if they do not wait too long.

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

5 MLB Plays Thursday

Pirates +120 (Bookmaker)
Orioles / Tigers OVER 10 -105 (Heritage)
Rockies / Twins UNDER 8.5 -105 (Game #2 – Chatwood/Berrios) (Heritage)
Blue Jays -106 (Bookmaker)
Red Sox / Athletics UNDER 9 -115 (Heritage)

[gregm]

I had accounts at Heritage and 5 Dimes. Tony is a weasel at 5 Dimes, if you beat them, they put you on a spin and lower your max bet to $500. Heritage kicked me out a few times for winning. I don't have a gripe, maybe my message is misunderstood. I have a question for you LT, are you saying that the average guy following this thread has a chance to get the same prices you are posting on every game? You and I both know that answer is no. So, its my suggestion, I have no standing to gripe at you about anything, post prices that are widely available. If you would do that, it would be a fair way to keep track of what someone following your plays would profit or lose. If your too busy, someone else might want to.

Its not his problem that you got limited. I actually think LT gets alot of bad lines but he posts the line after he wagers. I got pitt at +126

[intermission]

nice line LT, sox/oak already down to 8