Why are Brandon McCarthy lines always so inflated?

[No coincidences]

Sabermetrics nerds must really love this guy.

[stevenash]

<-----

This is my theory.

Tonight's line was inflated because Joe Average still thinks the Phillies totally suck ass, and they think the Dodgers are invincible.
Fact of the matter is Dodgers are very overrated, and are invincible only when Kershaw has his 'A' game working.
Who in the Dodger line up scares you?
Toles? Puig? Bellinger? Chase fvcking Utley?
That LA offense is mediore at best.

Conversely, Phillies are an up and coming squad.
Eikhoff and Nola are two nice starters, and Hellickson has been sharp almost every start.
They have a legit lead off man in Hernandez, Herrera and Franco are talented kids, picking up Saunders was a great move......

I've been telling people since spring training Phillies are going to make sharp bettors money all season.
I got an easy cash future ticket on them, over 72.5 wins. I told anybody that would listen that number is softer than jello, it's off 4 games, total should be 76.5 wins.

[No coincidences]

<-----

This is my theory.

Tonight's line was inflated because Joe Average still thinks the Phillies totally suck ass, and they think the Dodgers are invincible.
Fact of the matter is Dodgers are very overrated, and are invincible only when Kershaw has his 'A' game working.
Who in the Dodger line up scares you?
Toles? Puig? Bellinger? Chase fvcking Utley?
That LA offense is mediore at best.

Conversely, Phillies are an up and coming squad.
Eikhoff and Nola are two nice starters, and Hellickson has been sharp almost every start.
They have a legit lead off man in Hernandez, Herrera and Franco are talented kids, picking up Saunders was a great move......

I've been telling people since spring training Phillies are going to make sharp bettors money all season.
I got an easy cash future ticket on them, over 71.5 wins. I told anybody that would listen that number is softer than jello, it's off 4 games, total should be 75.5 wins.

I would normally agree with this, but every site I saw had the public on Philly.

[stevenash]

I would normally agree with this, but every site I saw had the public on Philly.

Really?
I believe you, but I'm surprised if Joe Average is aware if the Phillies yet.

[teecee]

f\*\*k! Well, there goes +196 and -1.5 +325 right down the toilet. Shit!

[2daBank]

going into series intended on betting phils till I won with those prices but got reluctant today and decided to cut my loss from fri and move on. Been kicking myself most the game, now smiling as if my super instincts sniffed this coming..Lol

[teecee]

Phillies lose. It really is kind of funny. Thought I had a decent play there. Oh well ....

[2daBank]

Phillies lose. It really is kind of funny. Thought I had a decent play there. Oh well ....

It was something like +180 right? Don't beat yourself up it was a good play!! Unfortunately all good plays don't win, doesn't change fact it was a good play. You keep making plays like that you will be turning profit buddy..

[Plaza23]

Phillies have allowed the most 9th inning runs in baseball. Their bullpen is trash which will lead to many 1 run losses. Only bet the run line on them when they are an underdog. Getting greedy with MLs on a bad team like the Phils is not smart.

[2daBank]

Phillies have allowed the most 9th inning runs in baseball. Their bullpen is trash which will lead to many 1 run losses. Only bet the run line on them when they are an underdog. Getting greedy with MLs on a bad team like the Phils is not smart.

They are .500 and have been dog in majority of their games. Taking them on the ml is indeed smart and been profitable.

[Plaza23]

They are .500 and have been dog in majority of their games. Taking them on the ml is indeed smart and been profitable.

Phillies are 9-11 Straight Up with a ML > -115
Phillies are 13-7 Run Line with a ML > -115

http://www.sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?output=default&su=1&ou=1&sdql=team+%3D+Phillies+and+season+%3D+2017+and+line+%3E+-115&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

You'd be making way more betting them on the RL than ML.

[stevenash]

^
Astute poater, we need more astute posters.
I refuae to bet a m/l however unless the side I am backing gets a ninth inning at bat.

[homerbush]

Sabermetrics nerds must really love this guy.

So do I betting the over when he pitches or the other teams TT over

[CappinTerp]

It was something like +180 right? Don't beat yourself up it was a good play!! Unfortunately all good plays don't win, doesn't change fact it was a good play. You keep making plays like that you will be turning profit buddy..

Yea,Banker is right......a few times a season(or more) posters will talk about a game,that lost.....and say "it was the right play or side" And many will go ,this game,was a good example of it.

[stevenash]

Yea,Banker is right......a few times a season(or more) posters will talk about a game,that lost.....and say "it was the right play or side" And many will go ,this game,was a good example of it.

Even though in principle I believe in the statement "it was the right side" when it comes right down to it though, the right side is the side that is paying you off.