This is the first year I have tried to handicap baseball. It simply cannot be handicaped like any other sport. One player is worth 70% of the value that being the pitcher.
In the past 3 years I've used the software from Sportrends because it works and is very easy to use. Several on this site will confirm that. But, I cannot help myself I want to handicap for myself. I have a 48,000 data base of games and attempt to research what I can. I found 4 things that work independently of actually handicapping today's game. It is based on the recent past. The software from Sportrends does the handicapping using the stats for todays games so why bother?
Starting yesterday ( Memorial Day is my start up day) I will give you games that the 4 methods pick games. I will explain 2 of those methods but not the other 2.
The 1st method I call the criss cross method. I simply add the home team wins and visitor loses for the home team and the reverse for the visitors. Let us say the Mets are at home and are 12-10. The visitors (Cinc) are 10 -14 away. We add up the Mets total . That is 12 home wins and 14 visitor loses for Cinc or12+14= 26. We do the same for Cinc 10+10 =20 At this pace the Mets win 26 times and lose 20 times. If todays game was based on this the Mets should be a-130 favorite and Ciny a 130 dog. We next compare todays line. We are looking for lines that are off by 30 or more in relationship to the line we estaablished. If for example NY was a +110 dog. Line is off 40 because they should be at -130. Mets are the play. If Cinc was a +180 dog they would be a play because line is off 50.
This method will realize a profit if used with some common sense.
Games for May26 (at 8.00 in the morning) that qualified are Fla, Tex, NyM, Milw, Minn. LAD, SD, and Atl. More games then normal. In a 500 game sampling it produced a 12% profit. One of those games I am throwing out. Will tell you why tomorrow.
Tomorrow I will go over another method and some common sense additional rules. Yesterday the 4 method produced a nice profit. I will update it on a regular basis. For those looking for replys from me I will get to you whenever I can.
Method 4 also has 3 plays today. Balt, Oak, Cinc.
No plays method 2 and 3
cheers
In the past 3 years I've used the software from Sportrends because it works and is very easy to use. Several on this site will confirm that. But, I cannot help myself I want to handicap for myself. I have a 48,000 data base of games and attempt to research what I can. I found 4 things that work independently of actually handicapping today's game. It is based on the recent past. The software from Sportrends does the handicapping using the stats for todays games so why bother?
Starting yesterday ( Memorial Day is my start up day) I will give you games that the 4 methods pick games. I will explain 2 of those methods but not the other 2.
The 1st method I call the criss cross method. I simply add the home team wins and visitor loses for the home team and the reverse for the visitors. Let us say the Mets are at home and are 12-10. The visitors (Cinc) are 10 -14 away. We add up the Mets total . That is 12 home wins and 14 visitor loses for Cinc or12+14= 26. We do the same for Cinc 10+10 =20 At this pace the Mets win 26 times and lose 20 times. If todays game was based on this the Mets should be a-130 favorite and Ciny a 130 dog. We next compare todays line. We are looking for lines that are off by 30 or more in relationship to the line we estaablished. If for example NY was a +110 dog. Line is off 40 because they should be at -130. Mets are the play. If Cinc was a +180 dog they would be a play because line is off 50.
This method will realize a profit if used with some common sense.
Games for May26 (at 8.00 in the morning) that qualified are Fla, Tex, NyM, Milw, Minn. LAD, SD, and Atl. More games then normal. In a 500 game sampling it produced a 12% profit. One of those games I am throwing out. Will tell you why tomorrow.
Tomorrow I will go over another method and some common sense additional rules. Yesterday the 4 method produced a nice profit. I will update it on a regular basis. For those looking for replys from me I will get to you whenever I can.
Method 4 also has 3 plays today. Balt, Oak, Cinc.
No plays method 2 and 3
cheers
