New system trial

[PAPSMEAR]

The new system is this:

1. No more than one money line bet per day (5 units per day - $50 = 1 unit)
2. Home team only
3. Team beaten at previous outing
4. Best ERA rated pitcher (no ERA = no qualify) from teams that meet criteria 2 and 3
5. Return must be better -120 or better
6. Washington Nationals excluded

Todays play is LA Dodgers at -120

I'll post the results as we go progress

[PAPSMEAR]

The new system is this:

1. No more than one money line bet per day (5 units per day - $50 = 1 unit)
2. Home team only
3. Team beaten at previous outing
4. Best ERA rated pitcher (no ERA = no qualify) from teams that meet criteria 2 and 3
5. Return must be better -120 or better
6. Washington Nationals excluded

Todays play is LA Dodgers at -120

I'll post the results as we go progress

WINNER

(1-0) + 5 units

[PAPSMEAR]

winner

(1-0) + 5 units

correction (1-0) + 4 units

[dreamjob]

Good job. I had the yanks and damn red sox too.
DJ

[PAPSMEAR]

System play for Sunday 24 May:

Booked Cincinnati Reds at +116 (Pinnacle) for 5 units

Good luck Gentlemen

[The General]

I hope it works well for you. Trial and error is best.

[PAPSMEAR]

Appreciate the support - DJ and The General

[Shortstop]

Good Luck PAPSMEAR!

[Dark Horse]

Appreciate the support - DJ and The General

Support is nice, but criticism would be more helpful.

[Slanina]

Did you backtest this idea? Or just decided to run with it? I guess finding a pitchers ERA on a given day in the past would be hell. So I'm assuming you are just running with it. Maybe you've been following this the past few weeks before wagering on it? Just wondering what or if any of the results were.

[PAPSMEAR]

Did you backtest this idea? Or just decided to run with it? I guess finding a pitchers ERA on a given day in the past would be hell. So I'm assuming you are just running with it. Maybe you've been following this the past few weeks before wagering on it? Just wondering what or if any of the results were.

Just running with it. No concrete statistical data as such but noticed that home teams backing up from a loss with a superior pitcher have a very good record of late. Add to that keeping bet numbers to a minimum, taking no less than -120 and removing the Nats as a betting prospect I see it as a reliable formula. A friend of mine played something similar last year and hit about 58%. The proof will be in the pudding.

[PAPSMEAR]

Support is nice, but criticism would be more helpful.

I agree. I'm open to any criticism, suggestions or comment regarding the system. Be my guest.

[PAPSMEAR]

The new system is this:

1. No more than one money line bet per day (5 units per day - $50 = 1 unit)
2. Home team only
3. Team beaten at previous outing
4. Best ERA rated pitcher (no ERA = no qualify) from teams that meet criteria 2 and 3
5. Return must be better -120 or better
6. Washington Nationals excluded

Todays play is LA Dodgers at -120

I'll post the results as we go progress

I should clarify that criteria 4 is based on seasonal ERA

[dreamjob]

System play for Sunday 24 May:

Booked Cincinnati Reds at +116 (Pinnacle) for 5 units

Good luck Gentlemen

Another great pick. I didn't bet because I didn't believe in Cincinnati, but hey your system is off and running to a great 2-0 start. I might start tailing you tomorrow. Great job PAP!
DJ

[G's pks]

Great job my new system is off and running well too...1-0 up to now... I hope you penis slap the books! As Zboiz used to say before he got barreled in again!

[PAPSMEAR]

[quote=PAPSMEAR;1873477]System play for Sunday 24 May:

Booked Cincinnati Reds at +116 (Pinnacle) for 5 units

WINNER (2-0) +9.8 UNITS

Early stages but all going well so far!

[PAPSMEAR]

Great job my new system is off and running well too...1-0 up to now... I hope you penis slap the books! As Zboiz used to say before he got barreled in again!

Good luck with the new system G. Solid start. I'll check it out. Hopefully we can bag a bit of coin.

[PAPSMEAR]

Another great pick. I didn't bet because I didn't believe in Cincinnati, but hey your system is off and running to a great 2-0 start. I might start tailing you tomorrow. Great job PAP!
DJ

Thanks DJ. When all of today's games conclude and the new lines are out I'll post tomorrow's play.

[PAPSMEAR]

system play for 25 may 2009:

no qualifying teams = no play

[Panekkkk]

I like rule 6

[jellobiafra]

This is pretty sharp. I think you've got a good chance at making a profit here. I might extend it to shorter odds plays and use a money line/run line split for any games over -120. I've explained this in several threads, but you can structure the bet so that your money line payout equals your run line wager amount. That way if the team wins the game but only by 1 run, you push. You still wager the same amount you would have wagered just on the money line, mind you. So the risk is no greater. But it can bring those short odds plays like -150 and above down to -120 or so IF your team wins by 2. If they win by 1 - again - you simply push. If they lose you lose the same amount you would have anyway. Some money lines will just be too high to consider even with the split wager, but there are a lot of -150 or so games you may be passing up that could end up more winners than losers. Just a thought.

Maybe you could list any games that would have qualified, but that the odds are too steep to play. That way we could track those results and see if this method would be a profitable addition and allow for more plays.

Either way, good luck!


EDIT:

I see you list your residence as being in Australia. If you use Pinnacle, they offer this (-1) run line wager -- as opposed to the traditional (-1.5) run line. That's all the above scenario serves to function as - it gives you a (1) run line.

[Panekkkk]

Anyway to backcheck this?

I'm thinking it would be way too much effort

Why the 5 unit bet? If you're constantly betting 5 units then isn't it really just 1 large unit? lol

[Shortstop]

Who do you have for Tuesday PAP?

[PAPSMEAR]

This is pretty sharp. I think you've got a good chance at making a profit here. I might extend it to shorter odds plays and use a money line/run line split for any games over -120. I've explained this in several threads, but you can structure the bet so that your money line payout equals your run line wager amount. That way if the team wins the game but only by 1 run, you push. You still wager the same amount you would have wagered just on the money line, mind you. So the risk is no greater. But it can bring those short odds plays like -150 and above down to -120 or so IF your team wins by 2. If they win by 1 - again - you simply push. If they lose you lose the same amount you would have anyway. Some money lines will just be too high to consider even with the split wager, but there are a lot of -150 or so games you may be passing up that could end up more winners than losers. Just a thought.

Maybe you could list any games that would have qualified, but that the odds are too steep to play. That way we could track those results and see if this method would be a profitable addition and allow for more plays.

Either way, good luck!


EDIT:

I see you list your residence as being in Australia. If you use Pinnacle, they offer this (-1) run line wager -- as opposed to the traditional (-1.5) run line. That's all the above scenario serves to function as - it gives you a (1) run line.

Thanks Jello - I see your point. I'll play the system with the exisiting bet structure but keep a ledger of your method and see what comes out on top over time.

[PAPSMEAR]

Anyway to backcheck this?

I'm thinking it would be way too much effort

Why the 5 unit bet? If you're constantly betting 5 units then isn't it really just 1 large unit? lol

I just wanted to state the unit amount @ $50 as I have used different unit amounts at differnet times in other threads when wagering on varying sports. HOWEVER I concede the point!!!!!

[PAPSMEAR]

SYSTEM PLAY FOR 26 MAY 2009:

Booked Texas Rangers at +110 (@ Pinnacle) for 5 units

Kansas City Royals met criteria 1-4 but price was less than -120 therefore did not qualify.

2 points to clarify with the system:

Criteria 4 - The seasonal ERA of the "best rated pitcher" must exceed the seasonal ERA rating of his opponent to qualify

Criteria 6 - Washington National games are not excluded as an investment opportunity only wagering on the Nationals themselves should they otherwise meet criteria 1-5.

[LT Profits]

SYSTEM PLAY FOR 26 MAY 2009:

Booked Texas Rangers at +110 (@ Pinnacle) for 5 units

Kansas City Royals met criteria 1-4 but price was less than -120 therefore did not qualify.

2 points to clarify with the system:

Criteria 4 - The seasonal ERA of the "best rated pitcher" must exceed the seasonal ERA rating of his opponent to qualify

Criteria 6 - Washington National games are not excluded as an investment opportunity only wagering on the Nationals themselves should they otherwise meet criteria 1-5.

If the Nationals qualify after steps 1-5, play them for first 5 innings!

They lead the world in blown saves, but they have held quite a few early leads.

[LT Profits]

And now for the criticisms


1. No more than one money line bet per day (5 units per day - $50 = 1 unit) If you are not familiar or comfortable with the Kelly system, I'd use a flat percentage of total bankroll for each play, say 3%.

2. Home team only Not a bad idea given the odds constraints in step 5.

3. Team beaten at previous outing I am neutral on this, I don't think the results will vary much if team won or lost previous game.

4. Best ERA rated pitcher (no ERA = no qualify) from teams that meet criteria 2 and 3 Of the most commonly available pitching stats, WHIP is much more meaningful than ERA.

5. Return must be better -120 or better If you are using home teams only, you can probably go to -130.

6. Washington Nationals excluded See my last.


Welcome and Good Luck!

[DavidWhite21]

The new system is this:

1. No more than one money line bet per day (5 units per day - $50 = 1 unit)
2. Home team only
3. Team beaten at previous outing
4. Best ERA rated pitcher (no ERA = no qualify) from teams that meet criteria 2 and 3
5. Return must be better -120 or better
6. Washington Nationals excluded

Todays play is LA Dodgers at -120

I'll post the results as we go progress

You have done a very good job and its time to celebration

[PAPSMEAR]

And now for the criticisms


1. No more than one money line bet per day (5 units per day - $50 = 1 unit) If you are not familiar or comfortable with the Kelly system, I'd use a flat percentage of total bankroll for each play, say 3%.

2. Home team only Not a bad idea given the odds constraints in step 5.

3. Team beaten at previous outing I am neutral on this, I don't think the results will vary much if team won or lost previous game.

4. Best ERA rated pitcher (no ERA = no qualify) from teams that meet criteria 2 and 3 Of the most commonly available pitching stats, WHIP is much more meaningful than ERA.

5. Return must be better -120 or better If you are using home teams only, you can probably go to -130.

6. Washington Nationals excluded See my last.


Welcome and Good Luck!

Todays play is LA Dodgers at -120

I'll post the results as we go progress

[/quote]

Thanks LT for the input. We don't seem to vary too much as to where we stand. It's a matter of playing the sytem through and tabling the results for all to see. If the system needs some tinkering in the future I'll keep what you've said in mind.

[bailey]

Agree with LT that WHIP is a better stat than ERA to use.When I don't have alot of time to cap games I use the season Whip and last 3 starts whip(from covers).I've weighted whip 60% last 3 starts and 40% season whip.I play the top 3 differeences laying max of-140 anything over -140 I play runline.Flat bets 1 unit.Haven't kept season record but I've done well using this criteria.Today would have LAA -1.5 +122,Atlanta +160 and St Louis -1.07(lines from MB)Good luck with your system .

[dreamjob]

I got money on TEX too. GL PAP and followers.

[Madetowin]

And now for the criticisms


1. No more than one money line bet per day (5 units per day - $50 = 1 unit) If you are not familiar or comfortable with the Kelly system, I'd use a flat percentage of total bankroll for each play, say 3%.

2. Home team only Not a bad idea given the odds constraints in step 5.

3. Team beaten at previous outing I am neutral on this, I don't think the results will vary much if team won or lost previous game.

4. Best ERA rated pitcher (no ERA = no qualify) from teams that meet criteria 2 and 3 Of the most commonly available pitching stats, WHIP is much more meaningful than ERA.

5. Return must be better -120 or better If you are using home teams only, you can probably go to -130.

6. Washington Nationals excluded See my last.


Welcome and Good Luck!

Todays play is LA Dodgers at -120

I'll post the results as we go progress

[/quote]






My book has the Dodgers today at +145??????? I don't get it

[Panekkkk]

So how do you decide between Rangers or Dodgers tonight?

[smitch124]

My book has the Dodgers today at +145??????? I don't get it[/QUOTE]


The Dodgers at -120 was a May 23rd play...