Leans for Friday May 22nd - 2009

[Dexter]

Cocknocker is busy with the harvest right now, so here is our daily thread. Anyone who hasnt posted in our thread before (or lurkers) feel free to come join in and discuss games. All that we ask is that you back up your plays with some reasoning, or cite the person etc that you're tailing.

Fri 5/22-

cavs -9 (3x) - must win for the cavs, and this time they dont let orlando back in the game. best defensive unit puts the clamps on.

mets -110 - DiceK first game back off an injury, and this guy was lost in his first 2 starts of the year. chance to get johan at a decent price.

under tigers 9 (2x) - jiminez has an era/whip of 1.35/1.05 in his last 3, while porcello has a 1.00/1.05.

over reds 10.5 (2x) - reyes has an era/whip of 6.06/1.47 in his last 3, while arroyo has a 10.2/2.00

bluejays -1.5/-100 - halladay has been locked in - his last 3 starts with an era/whip of 1.12/.83

over astros 10/-120 - holland is one of texas's better pitching prospects but has been pitching out of the pen all year - may take him a few games to stretch out. paulino has a 6.89/1.85 in his last 3.

mariners -140 - johnson seems to be hitting a wall, and an 11.04/2.05 in his last 3 - vargas has been solid in his first 2 starts with an era of 1.74

under dodgers 8 (2x) - weaver has been solid in his last 3 with a 1.87/.70 - kershaw has been at 3.18/1.17, but especially tough at home with a .98/.78 in 3 starts.

*no autobets for friday - too many games...i know, but im home/sick and wanna have a little fun

[Dexter]

shoutout to shoebox, jaymac, phx3, nonsense - get your asses back in here. you boyz are missed. and solobass will be rejoining us shortly after he finishes his assult on the Vegas books. im sure to be missing a few other regular faces.

[Jimbo42]

What up!

Booked:
Boston +113

St. Louis -130

Washington -125
Washington -1.5 +160

GL

[Dexter]

Below are my Autobets, and while I have said that I will wait a month before posting the results - i'm off today and have some free time - i also think its time to make adjustments to A1 which has not been doing well, and as you can see i kinda envisoned that by only going 1x per on that one. I will just list the record, as the unit sizes have nothing to do with the criteria of the system, but more so how I also feel about the game and my current roll for that week (i'm a week to week weighted gambler). However, records should give a pretty solid indicator as these plays rarely result in anything above -120/-130 with -150 the max. There have been dogs as well that have offeset the few higher favs ive had. Please feel free to give me your thoughts on each and discuss.

in each sport, i like to make adjustments after the first weeks of the season and come up with standard autobets. meaning if it fits my criteria, i make the plays with no thought, emotion involved. i love handicapping a game, but its very difficult to straight pick winners with the emotions that come with sports gambling after a loss etc...here are my 5:

AutoBets started 5/10/09 with records since then noted

**A1 ~ i will play on any underdog getting 1.5 runs and who is a dog or favored by no more then -110 on the moneyline - Record 1-4

A2 ~ i will play 2x or more on an underdog at +1.5 on the runline when the game total is 7.5 or less at any point during the day. However, i will not lay more then -150. Record 1-2

A3 ~ i will play 3x or more against any pitcher who has a WHIP of 1.80 or > in his last 3 starts - as long as the opposing team is -150 or < on the ML and the opposing pitcher has a WHIP of 1.00 or < in his last 3 starts. Move to run line if above 150 but so long that im not laying >110. Record 1-2

A4 ~ i will play 2x or more on the over in any game where both pitchers have a WHIP of 1.80 or > in the last 3 starts. Record 3-0

A5 ~ i will play 2x or more on the under when both pitchers have a whip of 1.00 or < in their last 3 starts. Record 3-2

*clearly, way too early to really tell whats legit and whats not. in fact, i will likely just play these for the whole season regadless since a lot of my natural capping beliefs have always been focused around whip.

with that said, i will now make an adjustment to A1:

A1 ~ i will play on any underdog getting 1.5 runs and who is a dog or favored by no more then -110 on the associated moneyline, but - the pitcher I back must have a WHIP of 1.30 or < in his last 3 starts.

now, 1.30 is not a great whip, but its kinda average. this will eliminate me backing pieces of trash like adam eaton etc....

[BCaldwell32]

I agree Dex, whip is the real stat to go by when judging a pitcher!! A couple bad innings scattered around can really screw up an ERA and mislead someone, but a whip is usually very accurate to knowing a pitchers real talent. I have played alot of fantasy baseball and whip far outweighs ERA when I choose quality pitching.

[Dexter]

yup bcald - and here is some good stats on bullpens (i have sorted by whip, but you can get era etc as well)

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_team_stats.jsp?statType=2&timeFrame=1&c_id=mlb&section2=1&groupByTeam=true&sitSplit=grp&checkBoxTotal=0&statSet2=2&Submit=Submit&baseballScope=mlb&timeSubFrame=2009&sortByStat=WHIP

who you like in the nba tonight?

[Mriswith]

Iirc it was mentioned before, but you might think about restricting your autobets that are solely / heavily based on pitchers' stats for the 4.5 / 5th Inning's line if it points to the UNDER and add the 4.5 / 5th Inning line if you go for the OVER - might decrease reliefer heartburn as ck puts it...

Hope you get better / well soon.

rgz,
Mris

[Dexter]

Iirc it was mentioned before, but you might think about restricting your autobets that are solely / heavily based on pitchers' stats for the 4.5 / 5th Inning's line if it points to the UNDER and add the 4.5 / 5th Inning line if you go for the OVER - might decrease reliefer heartburn as ck puts it...

Hope you get better / well soon.

rgz,
Mris

yup, no doubt that is likely the smart thing to do...but currently the books im playing at dont over first haves of games.

if i see it makes a huge diff down the road, i will no doubt open a new book. i may even incorporate bullpens whip into that under formula....

[Tennispro]

Today i have Blue jays rl, Rangers and Twins ml.
Got to go now.
GL

[Dexter]

you're contributions are always much appreciated tennispro

[jellobiafra]

you're contributions are always much appreciated tennispro

[Dexter]

what are you playing today jello?

[kotzwell88]

new to thread kinda, but I like TOR RL, LAD under, the most. and I'm gonna wait and hope that the cavs line drops a lil due to those Orlando optimists.

[kotzwell88]

oh yea and of course mets RL

[suicidekings]

Tennispro just put up the play of the day... nice.

As for me,

TEX (-107) @ HOU - I feel like Paulino is going to have a hard time today with the Rangers. 1u
NYM @ BOS, NYM RL -1.5 (+120) - If Santana is ever going to get the run support for this to hit, today is the day. 2u
PIT @ CWS, PIT RL -1.5 (+170) - Zach Duke has been great this year, and the RL has hit in all 5 of his wins. A game against the Pale Hose and the inconsistent Gavin Floyd is a good place for it to hit again. 2u
COL (+138) @ DET - Jiminez has been solid recently, and I feel that Porcello is going to have more ups and downs this season. 1u
SF @ SEA, SEA RL -1.5 (+165) - RJ is done... Vargas has been solid and stands to continue his streak tonight. I'll be on the SEA team total as well. 1u

NBA
Most of my action will be in props, quarter and half lines later on, but I'm going to have to go with: ORL +9 & Over 188. Cleveland will win, but Orlando isn't going to lie down with the momentum they gained in game 1. They're hungry...

[kotzwell88]

and wings/hawks over 5.5

[cocknocker]

Okay in smallball today, I like

Red Sox/Mets over 8.5 Just a pure contrarian wager
Orioles-105 HEAVY
Twins-126 Gardenhire's crew keep it going now that the losing streak is over
Marlins-110 False favorite here


The Marlins never win when you want them to win and always win when you want them to lose. The public is lining up for chicken dinners. The D-Rays don't even play outdoors or on natural grass,let alone have the pitcher hitting. The National League style of play will take a bat out of the lineup for the D-Rays that is usually there. Marlins win in a low scoring affair. I'm lining up with the books and being on the side with only 28% of bettors on them.

Santana/Matsuzaka matchup is going to be a good one. All of the Red Sox players with any length of experience have faced Santana before when he was in the AL. Some of these guys have decent numbers against him. Matsuzaka is the type of pitcher who allows a lot of baserunners. The Mets have hot bats and a small ball style that will produce runs for damn near no reason. With only 10% of the public taking this wager, I know that I am on the side of the books. Especially when the play for the under already has everyone on it and it costs -130 for the over. Apparently the books are attempting to steer the plays toward that under more

The Orioles are mired in a losing streak right now and no other cure works better for that than the Nats who have no business being favored in this game with Zimmerman and his faulty breaking ball. The one thing that the Orioles can do is hit. Not good. The public has chimed in on this one and I have found that although this play is popular, the line has shifted to match that reaction. It started out at Nats-123, and is down to as low as -111 at some books. Maybe the losing for the Orioles is finally over. It seems like forever since they last won a game.

[kotzwell88]

harvest is done? Thanks for posting CK

[pho3nix32]

hi guys...i'm gonna get married soon that's why i've not been here lately.

[Smith]

Dexter, just wanted to say that i love all of your picks. The only one that scares me is the Mets and Sox game. I will def lay it on the mets even though im a sox fan, but Santana will give up 3 runs i feel good about that and if the mets do win, then i see the over hitting as well. The sox are hot and they know they must win with the Yankees playing like they are and they are at home on a friday that highschools all across america get out. Why is that important you ask, It will be louder than anytime before this year! Looks to be a great game. Whats your thoughts?

[t-bone]

Love the Mets -113......Dice-K sucks

First 5 might be the safer play, I don't trust any bullpen right now

[SlicWilly3]

5 Plays I love for today:
Dex...You and I like a lot of the same today.....Hopefully that's a good thing

Cubs +135 (SBR BEST BET) Big Z coming back gives the entire team/club house a boost and they get it done tonight. I don't expect Peavy to be lights out after the crazy day he had yesterday. Being traded and then rejecting that trade and pitching the next day..... Peavy's is not prepared for this game as he normally would be.....

Clev/Cincy OVER 10 1/2 Even Rollin with Dex on this one....Hitter friendly park and two pitchers that have been hitter friendly as well Reyes has a 6.06 ERA and a 1.47 Whip over his last 3 starts, while Arroyo has been even worse with a 10.20 ERA and a Whip of 2.00! Neither team has a great bullpen either, so you shouldn't have to sweat this one out.

NY Mets -1/2 (1st 5 innings) +125 Are you serious....+125 on Santana to just have the Mets a 1 run lead after 5....I'll take those odds against anyone....Especially Dice K who has been terrible this yr. But with the way Boston's bullpen has been pitching (Ramirez, Paplebon) The Redsox could shut down the Mets late.... I'll roll with Santana Vs Dice K.....And keep the bullpens out of my wager.

Toronto -1/2 -115 Same as above.....Halladay has been his usual nasty self 1.12 ERA 0.83 Whip last 3, while Kawakami has been eh......3.93 ERA and a 1.62 Whip last 3 starts.....Not horrible, but not Halladay....I'll bet my left toe that the Halladay and the BlueJays will be leading by a single run after 5 innings.

NBA: Clev Cavs -7 1/2 -140 Bought a pt and a half.....No way Lebron lets them lose again tonight....

Good luck everybody

[t-bone]

1 unit Mets 1st 5 -111......I like your thinking Slic

[SlicWilly3]

Yeah I just can't bet against the Sox bullpen......If this game is tied late....The egde 110% goes to the Redsox...... Paplebon and Ramirez have given the Redsox and almost SCORELESS 8th and 9th all season long.
Man I hate the Redsox.....It seems like most of my friends are Redsox fans too

[MrMonkey]

hi guys...i'm gonna get married soon that's why i've not been here lately.

Don't have anything to contribute baseball wise, but I know everybody here wishes you nothing but the best!

MrMonkey

[Rick22]

hi guys...i'm gonna get married soon that's why i've not been here lately.

Best of Luck. Wishing you a long and happy life together.......

[Kav]

i have a feeling the mets offense wont come through tonight, just like how it never does when johan pitches for them...

[kmarinouofm]

Dexter ,
Thanks for getting the thread started...


CK beat me to it.. but i am also on the Orioles heavy today along with the Cardinals

zimmerman is 0-1 with an 8.34 ERA in four starts this month. and gave up 5 runs in five pitched against philly... NOT GOOD FOR WASHINGTON.. this Orioles team can hit.. plus they just got swept against the Yankees and have lost 4 straight... Time to get some payback and some DC area bragging rights!!!

also leaning St Louis.. will write up later

[SmackdownV]

For Me personally........I think the BEST BET of the night to go heavy on is the Cavs 1st half -5.5.

No way the Cavs let down the fans in the first half of this one!

That's just me.......But I LOVE that bet!

[Dexter]

hi guys...i'm gonna get married soon that's why i've not been here lately.

get the fuk outta here??? how much did you have to pay her phx3??!! haha - just kidding buddy..........congrats!

hope she doesnt interfere with your nba capping.

[Dexter]

i have a feeling the mets offense wont come through tonight, just like how it never does when johan pitches for them...

i hear that...but i just played the moneyline, so all they have to do is win. dicek will likely not be very sharp tonight.

[Dexter]

nice post #22 slic willy...thats the kinda shit i love. whats that best bet thread 4th? is there a competition that your a part of?

make sure you keep showing up here....

[Dexter]

Dexter, just wanted to say that i love all of your picks. The only one that scares me is the Mets and Sox game. I will def lay it on the mets even though im a sox fan, but Santana will give up 3 runs i feel good about that and if the mets do win, then i see the over hitting as well. The sox are hot and they know they must win with the Yankees playing like they are and they are at home on a friday that highschools all across america get out. Why is that important you ask, It will be louder than anytime before this year! Looks to be a great game. Whats your thoughts?

i cant wait to watch this game tonight. im sure boston will score a few off johan tonight....something like 7ip/3er for johan. but i think the mets bats take care of dicek in his first game back off the injury. something like 7-4 mets in this one...

[Dexter]

im also playing the belmont card today:

Race 2: # 3 horse - $20 win and $20 place

****dammit - i would have had the #1 horse in race 1 but got home late. $7.5 winner

[Dexter]

wow........mets down to a PK with reyes out