Mr. Crumbs Leans for Thursday 5/21/09

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  • kmarinouofm
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 01-26-09
    • 8437

    #71
    now does that count as a JM loss?

    also i didn't get an email today... yet i did yesterday and the day before about the play.. weird..
    Comment
    • The_Kid
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 02-09-08
      • 5049

      #72
      The game ending double play. What a way to end it.

      Originally posted by kmarinouofm
      now does that count as a JM loss?
      It's a win because Texas covered the +1.5 on the runline.
      Comment
      • SmackdownV
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 04-14-09
        • 5918

        #73
        Crap! Oh well......I hit the Twinks!
        Comment
        • theplagy
          SBR MVP
          • 04-21-09
          • 1915

          #74
          Good call on twinkies, Crumb.
          Comment
          • cnleaf
            Restricted User
            • 11-08-08
            • 346

            #75
            20-0 what is that? I am dizzy
            Comment
            • kmarinouofm
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 01-26-09
              • 8437

              #76
              wish i had the balls to lay the twins moneyline.. but i was on the over 9.5 which hit by the 4th inning
              Comment
              • A Mayland
                Restricted User
                • 05-21-09
                • 260

                #77
                Originally posted by Smogs
                I've gone for -

                LA Angels and Arizona

                Both have good line movement, good odds and stats and trends on their side.

                Angels are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
                Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
                Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter

                Mariners are 1-4 in Bedards last 5 home starts
                Mariners are 3-12 in their last 15 overall.

                Plus, Joe Saunders is 5-0 in his last 5 against Seattle.
                Bedard is 2-3 and that includes starts for Baltimore

                Scherzer is going to make back some of that lost money that D'Back backers have lost this season. One win will be followed by two and promising line movement has helped.
                However, this is a harder pick because Florida have a 17-8 record at home to Ari.
                This play is more off the momentum that Scherzer will create.

                Marlins are 2-6 in Millers last 8 starts


                * Also taking Lakers 1Q and the over 210.5 in a double that pays 5/2 but i am wondering whether to just play the two as singles and if one loses i only lose 10p on the pound.

                Couldn't take Detroit or Minny, they just don't give me any confidence

                The angels lost last night...so how are they 6-0 against a team with a losing record
                Comment
                • Smogs
                  SBR MVP
                  • 12-31-08
                  • 4173

                  #78
                  Originally posted by A Mayland
                  The angels lost last night...so how are they 6-0 against a team with a losing record
                  Hmm, i don't know, i got it from covers.com
                  Comment
                  • showtime2000
                    SBR MVP
                    • 11-09-08
                    • 1054

                    #79
                    Hockey plays tonight,

                    Pittsburgh Regulation -114
                    Pittsburgh -1.5 (+175)


                    Although Carolina kept it close last game, you can see injuries and tiredness catching up to them. Carolina has played 2 series going the distance and OT to boot against Boston. time. Fleury did play well last game and i think the same happens tonight.

                    MLB
                    Arizona (CK)
                    Ari/Flor over 9
                    LA Angels



                    GLA
                    Comment
                    • Dexter
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 12-24-08
                      • 25829

                      #80
                      Thur-

                      orioles +1.5/+130 (Autobet) - playing the underdog getting 1.5 runs and getting + money on the associated moneyline. as noted, i will actually even make this play up to balt -110.

                      royals -1.5/+100 (5x) - zack greinke is clearly the hottest pitcher in the game and faces an indian team that is slumping badly right now. pavano is on the bump for cleav, and he has been awful on the road with a 6.03/1.40 era/whip and got hit for 4er in 6ip at kc last year. greinke took care of cleav once already this year, and i expect another dominant performance. what i really like about this play is the fact that the royals have won all 7 of greinkes starts by 2+ runs per game. the avg margin of victory in his wins are 4 runs per game.

                      giants -140 - lincecum got roughed up earlier in the year at sd, but i'll back the all world ace to make the proper adjustment vs a team that he still has a career 1.45 era vs...the giants are 7-2 in his starts vs sd. this is still one of the worst offenses in baseball.

                      nuggets +5.5 (3x)
                      Comment
                      • Dexter
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 12-24-08
                        • 25829

                        #81
                        Originally posted by kmarinouofm
                        now does that count as a JM loss?

                        also i didn't get an email today... yet i did yesterday and the day before about the play.. weird..
                        thats a win..
                        Comment
                        • SlicWilly3
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 11-05-08
                          • 607

                          #82
                          2 over's......Saw thread in baseball forum....And I doubled check.

                          Wind blowing OUT in both games....

                          Balt/NYY OVER 11 -105 Blowing out at 16 mph
                          Tor/Bost/ OVER 11 -115
                          Blowing out at 21 mph
                          "Success doesn't just happen, it happens for those that take action"
                          -Donald J. Trump
                          Comment
                          • Mriswith
                            SBR Hustler
                            • 03-20-09
                            • 76

                            #83
                            1st of all, great daily read - thx to ck and evr1 sharing their picks / thoughts. That said,

                            Originally posted by showtime2000
                            Hockey plays tonight,

                            Pittsburgh Regulation -114
                            Pittsburgh -1.5 (+175)


                            Although Carolina kept it close last game, you can see injuries and tiredness catching up to them. Carolina has played 2 series going the distance and OT to boot against Boston. time. Fleury did play well last game and i think the same happens tonight.
                            Looking at the LM I don't like this pick, even if you truly did an outstanding job w/ pucks so far showtime. 60% money on CAR and the odds are dropping ( seems ok ), but 64% favouring PIT on the puck line, yet the odds are getting better ( RLM ).

                            bol @ll,
                            Mris
                            Comment
                            • Jimbo42
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-04-09
                              • 2076

                              #84
                              Philly cashes!
                              Comment
                              • Jimbo42
                                SBR MVP
                                • 01-04-09
                                • 2076

                                #85
                                Already booked Colorado on the money line...

                                Just added:
                                Colorado -1.5 +180
                                Boston -1.5 +105


                                GL
                                Comment
                                • jellobiafra
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 03-08-09
                                  • 6291

                                  #86
                                  Kris Medlen just shit his pants in the top of the 4th. Could not even come close to the strike zone. Looked like Mark Wholers or Rick Ankiel out there. Weird really. He was cruising along in his debut and then started throwing them to the backstop. Walked the bases loaded and then hit the pitcher to force in a run.

                                  That's why I don't like to bet on an unknown commodity. This kid is supposed to be a good one. We'll see. I'd have rather seen Hanson, but I guess they are playing it slow with him.
                                  Comment
                                  • Dexter
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 12-24-08
                                    • 25829

                                    #87
                                    jello - how was his stuff? threw hard etc?

                                    yeah, never bet on a rookie in his first few starts...
                                    Comment
                                    • jellobiafra
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 03-08-09
                                      • 6291

                                      #88
                                      Stuff.... ehh. Fastball 87-91. Sneaky fast though because he's little. 5'9 ish. Looks like Ian Snell out there.

                                      Got a good curve but he kept hanging it up there. The Braves announcers were commenting on how good it was but every time he threw it I cringed. Really good looking change. Drifts away from the lefties. Throws a 2 seamer with good riding action on the righties too.

                                      Overall, I think the kid has a future. Middle of the rotation guy at best though. I'm honestly a little worried about what I saw in the 4th though. This is a control pitcher who literally lost it Dex. Hit the backstop about 4 times in the inning and clipped the pitcher with the bases loaded. It brought back memories of Wholers and Ankiel. I hope he is alright. It was bad.
                                      Comment
                                      • Dexter
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 12-24-08
                                        • 25829

                                        #89
                                        first pro start - im sure it was just nerves...thx for the info
                                        Comment
                                        • jellobiafra
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 03-08-09
                                          • 6291

                                          #90
                                          I could write it off as nerves if it was the 1st or even 2nd or maybe 3rd. But he was settled in. Retired them in order in the 3rd. He was cruising. Then he just lost the plate.

                                          Hope you are right, but I'm kind of holding my breath until I see him throw some strikes next time out.
                                          Comment
                                          • Jimbo42
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-04-09
                                            • 2076

                                            #91
                                            Rockies cash with reverse run line!
                                            Comment
                                            • peterpan19
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 11-02-08
                                              • 3377

                                              #92
                                              dbacks win it....nice....even with no money on it...qualls !
                                              Comment
                                              • Kav
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 02-25-09
                                                • 3281

                                                #93
                                                woo hoo d-backs with the win! iwas scared about this one but they made through it!
                                                Comment
                                                • Dexter
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 12-24-08
                                                  • 25829

                                                  #94
                                                  Originally posted by jellobiafra
                                                  I could write it off as nerves if it was the 1st or even 2nd or maybe 3rd. But he was settled in. Retired them in order in the 3rd. He was cruising. Then he just lost the plate.

                                                  Hope you are right, but I'm kind of holding my breath until I see him throw some strikes next time out.
                                                  are you a braves fan or own him in a fantasy league?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Soxsfan9
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 11-30-08
                                                    • 3705

                                                    #95
                                                    Anyone else get burned by the Lakers going to sleep right before half??

                                                    I am liking lakers 2H -4
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Jimbo42
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 01-04-09
                                                      • 2076

                                                      #96
                                                      Originally posted by peterpan19
                                                      dbacks win it....nice....even with no money on it...qualls !
                                                      i didn't play it either... but all the homies did so I was rooting! Nice call CK!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • jellobiafra
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 03-08-09
                                                        • 6291

                                                        #97
                                                        I'm a Braves fan. Don't play fantasy.... unless you consider the idea of making a profit at gambling a fantasy. Which for me is probably accurate....
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Dexter
                                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                          • 12-24-08
                                                          • 25829

                                                          #98
                                                          Fri 5/22-

                                                          cavs -9 (3x) - must win for the cavs, and this time they dont let orlando back in the game. best defensive unit puts the clamps on.

                                                          mets (ML) - DiceK first game back off an injury, and this guy was lost in his first 2 starts of the year. chance to get johan at a decent price.

                                                          under tigers (2x) - jiminez has an era/whip of 1.35/1.05 in his last 3, while porcello has a 1.00/1.05.

                                                          over reds (2x) - reyes has an era/whip of 6.06/1.47 in his last 3, while arroyo has a 10.2/2.00

                                                          bluejays (RL) - halladay has been locked in - his last 3 starts with an era/whip of 1.12/.83

                                                          over astros - holland is one of texas's better pitching prospects but has been pitching out of the pen all year - may take him a few games to stretch out. paulino has a 6.89/1.85 in his last 3.

                                                          mariners (ML) - johnson seems to be hitting a wall, and an 11.04/2.05 in his last 3 - vargas has been solid in his first 2 starts with an era of 1.74

                                                          under dodgers (2x) - weaver has been solid in his last 3 with a 1.87/.70 - kershaw has been at 3.18/1.17, but especially tough at home with a .98/.78 in 3 starts.

                                                          *no autobets for friday - too many games...i know, but im home/sick and wanna have a little fun
                                                          Comment
                                                          • showtime2000
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 11-09-08
                                                            • 1054

                                                            #99
                                                            Originally posted by Mriswith
                                                            1st of all, great daily read - thx to ck and evr1 sharing their picks / thoughts. That said,



                                                            Looking at the LM I don't like this pick, even if you truly did an outstanding job w/ pucks so far showtime. 60% money on CAR and the odds are dropping ( seems ok ), but 64% favouring PIT on the puck line, yet the odds are getting better ( RLM ).

                                                            bol @ll,
                                                            Mris

                                                            Although there was RLM in this game, the general consensus among hockey betters was clearly on Carolina tonight based on their Game 2 situations in these playoffs and keeping it close the last game. I instead ventored the other way based on 2 things,
                                                            -injuries to Carolina
                                                            -tiredness which hit them in the last stages of the game

                                                            All these contributed to a nice cash!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • showtime2000
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 11-09-08
                                                              • 1054

                                                              #100
                                                              Originally posted by showtime2000
                                                              Hockey plays tonight,

                                                              Pittsburgh Regulation -114
                                                              Pittsburgh -1.5 (+175)


                                                              Although Carolina kept it close last game, you can see injuries and tiredness catching up to them. Carolina has played 2 series going the distance and OT to boot against Boston. time. Fleury did play well last game and i think the same happens tonight.





                                                              GLA
                                                              And the Penguinos cash the ticket!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Mriswith
                                                                SBR Hustler
                                                                • 03-20-09
                                                                • 76

                                                                #101
                                                                Originally posted by showtime2000
                                                                Although there was RLM in this game, the general consensus among hockey betters was clearly on Carolina tonight based on their Game 2 situations in these playoffs and keeping it close the last game. I instead ventored the other way based on 2 things,
                                                                -injuries to Carolina
                                                                -tiredness which hit them in the last stages of the game

                                                                All these contributed to a nice cash!
                                                                well done,

                                                                rgz,
                                                                Mris
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Jimbo42
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-04-09
                                                                  • 2076

                                                                  #102
                                                                  Originally posted by showtime2000
                                                                  And the Penguinos cash the ticket!
                                                                  Showtime shoots.... he scores!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Jimbo42
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-04-09
                                                                    • 2076

                                                                    #103
                                                                    Red Sox run line!...
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • showtime2000
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 11-09-08
                                                                      • 1054

                                                                      #104
                                                                      Originally posted by Jimbo42
                                                                      Showtime shoots.... he scores!

                                                                      Nice day for ya Jimbo! I've gotta new saying for ya,

                                                                      "ANYONE WHO GOES AGAINST JIMBO IS A BIMBO!"
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • ebbearsfb1
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 12-07-08
                                                                        • 18815

                                                                        #105
                                                                        y do i feel that the giants are down 1-0 and its a lost cause the way they've been playing
                                                                        Comment
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