Vegas Dave's Baseball Picks 05/20/09 (Write-Ups)
Look for Cincinnati (-117) to outhit the Phillies tonight
Even if Aaron Harang doesn't have his best, it should still be enough to beat the Phillies tonight. Colorado on the moneyline and Texas/Detroit staying under round off the card.
Pick 1: Cincinnati Reds -117 over Philadelphia Phillies
Wednedsay, May 20th, 7:10 PM
This season really has been a Jekyll/Hyde season for Aaron Harang. In eight starts, Harang has given up exactly five earned runs in three and has given up two or less in the other five. Which Harang shows up today? Fortunately for Cincinnati backers, the way Jamie Moyer is pitching this season it really shouldn’t matter. Moyer has an ERA of 8.15 over seven starts and has given up less than four earned runs in a start only once this season. In his three starts in May, Moyer is 0-2 with a 13.86 ERA, including two seven run efforts in his last two trips to the mound.
If Harang is on, the Reds should win easily. If he isn’t, it should still be a slugfest that the Reds would still have a chance to win. Either way, at only -117, the Reds are well worth taking a gamble on tonight.
The Pick: Cincinnati Reds (-117)
Pick 2: Colorado +138 over Atlanta Braves
Wednedsay, May 20th, 7:10 PM
7 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 10 Ks
8 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 12 Ks
If you haven’t been paying attention, you probably have trouble believing that those are the lines from Jorge De La Rosa’s last two starts. Mired with terrible luck, De La Rosa can’t get any run support this season and hasn’t recorded a win; but that has kept him under the radar in some circles. In seven starts this season, De La Rosa has given up more than two runs only twice, and hasn’t given up more than three earned runs in six straight starts.
Javier Vazquez has pitched well this season as well, making me lean a bit towards the under 8 as well. But when I saw the price of Colorado on the moneyline, I got a little greedy; I think this line should be a lot more like +110 or +115, not the +138 that it is. Plenty of value on the Rockies here.
The Pick: Colorado Rockies (+138)
Pick 3: Texas @ Detroit Under 9 runs (-110)
Wednedsay, May 20th, 7:05 PM
Justin Verlander has found his groove. He has put together four straight magnificent outings, going 3-0 with a 0.92 ERA and striking out 44 over that stretch. While there isn’t any questioning Texas’s formidable offense, when Verlander and his 99-mph fastball are working, it is almost impossible to hit the guy.
There is just something about May for Matt Harrison. In four starts in April, he went 1-2 with a 7.89 ERA and a 2.08 WHIP. Through three starts in May? 3-0 with a 0.78 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP, including two straight complete games (one shutout).
With the way these two guys are pitching there is good reason to believe this game will stay in single digits in scoring.
The Pick: Texas/Detroit Under 9 (-110)
Good luck today!
Even if Aaron Harang doesn't have his best, it should still be enough to beat the Phillies tonight. Colorado on the moneyline and Texas/Detroit staying under round off the card.
Pick 1: Cincinnati Reds -117 over Philadelphia Phillies
Wednedsay, May 20th, 7:10 PM
This season really has been a Jekyll/Hyde season for Aaron Harang. In eight starts, Harang has given up exactly five earned runs in three and has given up two or less in the other five. Which Harang shows up today? Fortunately for Cincinnati backers, the way Jamie Moyer is pitching this season it really shouldn’t matter. Moyer has an ERA of 8.15 over seven starts and has given up less than four earned runs in a start only once this season. In his three starts in May, Moyer is 0-2 with a 13.86 ERA, including two seven run efforts in his last two trips to the mound.
If Harang is on, the Reds should win easily. If he isn’t, it should still be a slugfest that the Reds would still have a chance to win. Either way, at only -117, the Reds are well worth taking a gamble on tonight.
The Pick: Cincinnati Reds (-117)
Pick 2: Colorado +138 over Atlanta Braves
Wednedsay, May 20th, 7:10 PM
7 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 10 Ks
8 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 12 Ks
If you haven’t been paying attention, you probably have trouble believing that those are the lines from Jorge De La Rosa’s last two starts. Mired with terrible luck, De La Rosa can’t get any run support this season and hasn’t recorded a win; but that has kept him under the radar in some circles. In seven starts this season, De La Rosa has given up more than two runs only twice, and hasn’t given up more than three earned runs in six straight starts.
Javier Vazquez has pitched well this season as well, making me lean a bit towards the under 8 as well. But when I saw the price of Colorado on the moneyline, I got a little greedy; I think this line should be a lot more like +110 or +115, not the +138 that it is. Plenty of value on the Rockies here.
The Pick: Colorado Rockies (+138)
Pick 3: Texas @ Detroit Under 9 runs (-110)
Wednedsay, May 20th, 7:05 PM
Justin Verlander has found his groove. He has put together four straight magnificent outings, going 3-0 with a 0.92 ERA and striking out 44 over that stretch. While there isn’t any questioning Texas’s formidable offense, when Verlander and his 99-mph fastball are working, it is almost impossible to hit the guy.
There is just something about May for Matt Harrison. In four starts in April, he went 1-2 with a 7.89 ERA and a 2.08 WHIP. Through three starts in May? 3-0 with a 0.78 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP, including two straight complete games (one shutout).
With the way these two guys are pitching there is good reason to believe this game will stay in single digits in scoring.
The Pick: Texas/Detroit Under 9 (-110)
Good luck today!