MLB Leans ~ Tue 5/19

[Dexter]

tue 5/19-

phillies (ML) (5x) - hamels is back locked in with a 1.59/1.06 era/whip in his last 3. he also owns the reds as the phils have won all 4 of his starts vs cincy with a .60/.90.

brewers (ML) - bush has a .76 whip in his last 3, and mike hampton is pitching for the stros. nuff said.

over tigers - mccarthy has been roughed up on the road with a 8.40/2.00 away from tex - he also has an era of 6.75 in his last 3. dontrelle willis is pitching for the tigers. nuff said.

bluejays (ML) (Autobet - 3x) - tallet has a whip of 1.00 in his last 3, while wakefield has a whip of 1.97

orioles (RL) (Autobet) - play any dog on the runline who is getting + money or no > -110

under whitesox (Autobet - 2x) - both pitchers have whips of 1.00 or < in their last 3.

*possible plays depending on line movement - kc (RL), arz (RL)

NBA: over lakers 214.5 (3x)

[darrell74]

Phills, not a bad pick. Cueto can't go deep, however.

Brewers- Love it!!!

Tigers over- I can see the Tigers getting 11 by themselves, with the way they've been scoring, lately


Autobet? what's that?

KC rl? you mean +1 1/2?
Why not KC ml, its +115, right now, I'm leaning that, Bannister at home

[Dexter]

RL is run line....some of my plays call for getting the 1.5 runs....heres what my autobets are:

in each sport, i like to make adjustments after the first weeks of the season and come up with standard autobets. meaning if it fits my criteria, i make the plays with no thought, emotion involved. i love handicapping a game, but its very difficult to straight pick winners with the emotions that come with sports gambling after a loss etc...here are my 5:

AutoBets

1) i will play on any underdog getting 1.5 runs and who is a dog or favored by no more then -110 on the moneyline

2) i will play 2x or more on an underdog at +1.5 on the runline when the game total is 7.5 or less at any point during the day. However, i will not lay more then -150.

3) i will play 3x or more against any pitcher who has a WHIP of 1.80 or > in his last 3 starts - as long as the opposing team is -150 or < on the ML and the opposing pitcher has a WHIP of 1.00 or < in his last 3 starts. Move to run line if above 150 but so long that im not laying >110

4) i will play 2x or more on the over in any game where both pitchers have a WHIP of 1.80 or > in the last 3 starts.

5) i will play 2x or more on the under when both pitchers have a whip of 1.00 or < in their last 3 starts

[darrell74]

Got it.

It a type of system, you seem to employ.

How's it been this year?
Curious
Very interesting system, you've chosen to mechanize

[Dexter]

just started this month. will update the records every few weeks. its kind of how ive always bet in baseball (following whip) and ive done pretty well some seasons. like any type of sports gambling - it really boils down to money mgmt, weighted gambling etc...

A1 and A2 (playing dogs on the runline) is def something new that im trying, which is why I left A1 at just 1x per play. A2 I actually love the mindset behind grabbing 1.5 runs on a total of 7.5 or < (should be a low scoring close game - a lot more value on +1.5 with a total of 7, then a total of 10) which is why i'll always make that a larger bet

the other 3 ive always kind of bet that way - but i always try to eliminate the guess work/emotions that comes with straight capping games - therefore i set these 5 in place. you think very differently when on a cold streak, and i want to eliminate that from my play selection. i always bet less when down, more when up (with regards to unit size)....

i will still clearly make plays outside of these 5 (see phils tonight) but its nice to have autobets on angles you believe in.

[khaliagent]

g's picks: so dexter you should make your own thread (because ck's is polluted)Originally Posted by G's pks
GL guys getting out of your slump, I look at the opening thread 3-4 times a week and it is usually below .500 easily. Dexter have you ever thought about just having your own thread? Do you have one? So many scattered picks in here, and with the main picks hitting below sea level...might not be a bad idea.


dexter:

"so not necessary dude....no, i have no interest in having a following. im not here for fame, just fortune

ive had enough of this place tonight....gnight all"

so what do you call this dex....

[Dexter]

g's picks: so dexter you should make your own thread (because ck's is polluted)Originally Posted by G's pks
GL guys getting out of your slump, I look at the opening thread 3-4 times a week and it is usually below .500 easily. Dexter have you ever thought about just having your own thread? Do you have one? So many scattered picks in here, and with the main picks hitting below sea level...might not be a bad idea.


dexter:

"so not necessary dude....no, i have no interest in having a following. im not here for fame, just fortune

ive had enough of this place tonight....gnight all"

so what do you call this dex....

cocknocker didnt make the overnight thread, so i was simply starting it for all of us.

[texhooper]

let me be the first to say, what the f*ck is dontrelle willis doing?? pitching like he did as a rookie...what is he, out of his mind??!!

maybe the tigers for real will get this over by themselves.

[suicidekings]

let me be the first to say, what the f*ck is dontrelle willis doing?? pitching like he did as a rookie...what is he, out of his mind??!!

maybe the tigers for real will get this over by themselves.

Or perhaps the books got the better of all of us on this one... Looking at the matchup, it's such a ridiculously strong over, it'll probably end in an under...

[Dexter]

yeah, my over looks like toast...

[texhooper]

the over in the tigers/rangers game was my one and only bet in mlb. oh well.