Mr. Crumbs Leans for Saturday 5/16/09

[cocknocker]

Still pissed off at the Giants and the Marlins bullpens to day and relievers continue to do what they do. But at any rate, I will have to cool off on the Marlis with Miller coming back from the farm to pitch against A grade hitting. will also haveto pass on Lackey making his first start too. He must be faded until his form shows. I also see a mistake by the linemaker on the Snakes game.

Arizona+110 HEAVY
Arizona-1.5 +175 RRL
Red Legs-125 *****NO PLAY**** Reds-145 now
Texas Team Total over 5 -110 Lackey faces live hitting part 1
Houston-110 Riding the hot bats in a slug-out. Oswalt will get it done
Wahoos/D-Rays under 9.5
Colorado-1.5 +145 (shoe's Shine Special)

[jaymac82980]

Ck, how you liking the over for the toronto game? This one looks good here since tubby colon is a real a-hole (pun intended), and the other guy stinks too. 6.00 era in 3 games, not HORRIBLE, but, it's not good either. and they are playing after a nice nights sleep.

[tbill11]

With you again on the first ones, although this has been a mighty helter skelter week for baseball. Team totals aren't listed on Bookmaker yet, but I'll likely take the Rangers total once it's available, want to know what you think about the Rangers/Angels over 10. Looks like a pretty good bet considering Padilla is no stud, Lackey's pitching for the first time this year, and both the Rangers and Angels have been knocking the crap out of the ball recently.

What do you think?

[khaliagent]

ck, how you liking the over for the toronto game? This one looks good here since tubby colon is a real a-hole (pun intended), and the other guy stinks too. 6.00 era in 3 games, not horrible, but, it's not good either. And they are playing after a nice nights sleep.

that is a strong over play....thanks for making me aware..
This guy ray is crap i am from toronto and i cant even stomach watching him pitch..if it is at 9.5 hammer this

[Savage0765]

Arizona+110 HEAVY

i got them a +124 at Pinnacle should i wait the line go higher or pinnacle is off and the line is going to go down

[macadams]

I was 1-2 last night, so I've started to look at the games already, looking to bounce back.

Early feelings are...

HOU, CIN, TAM

and the CLE-TAM OVER

To mrcohen59(think that was the handle?): After we talked about the Mets last night, I really wanted to pull the trigger on the ML, I didn't take it to the window, though...shame on me!

[Flyers09]

phillies -130

[Masu485]

value in brewers +137

[alukk]

Minesota twins +170 big

[macadams]

NY has gotten to Blackburn their last two chances at him, Joba looked good last time (watched that game), still looking for the Texeira burst out with Rodriguez protecting him, could happen any day now I feel, Yankees starting to look better. NYY is the prelim call.

FLA got a lot of batters in scoring position last night, so there is some hope there, the on FLA guy who most needs to turn the corner is Uggla and he's already gone yard on Milton in just 3 PA's. Do you feel LAD can get away with two rookies in a row against what must be a, by now, desperate Marlins team? Value in the line. FLA is the prelim call.

Indians strike out a lot, and Garza knows how to strike people out. A large part of the wins when CLE has gotten them has been their ability to draw walks (they are actually second in the AL in that department), but I think you can count on Garza not to issue the free passes (stats indicate this). TAM is the prelim call.

Cincy I think will win, SD got to do a lot more before I stop fading them, I just think that SD team is so uninspired...

I'll keep looking at stats and angles for these and maybe some others up until first pitch, I also have to figure out how to group these into parlays. I feel I need at least a two teamer today since all my plays last night TOR, BOS and CIN were straight moneyline plays which went 1-2 and set me back. I got my fighting spirit from this board! I'd love some feedback and some suggestions!

GL

[macadams]

Cincy 8-2 after a loss when there has been a game on the next day so far this season...

[Rizzla]

value in brewers +137

Value? Yes! But will they win? No!
Wainwright 3 - 1 against Suppan 2 - 3, and brewers has only been on a roll at home.
Now they face Cardinals away and will not make it.. i go for Cardinals BIG.

[macadams]

John Lackey has given up the following number of runs/IP in his firt games of the season, you see he has been touched up more than once, but was very good in 07 and 08. Bear in mind though, that batters now have hit MLB style for a while before facing him, not fooled around in the cactus league. I included the pitchcount for the last three seasons as they indicate that when he can pitch, they don't mind him approaching 100, and they wouldn't start him if he wasn't physically ready so I don't think he's out there on a 70-80 or something like that, issue is if he's got the stuff...if he does they're going to let him stay in I think (and not pull him to be cautious)...
I don't know what I think, but LAA must be energized just getting him back so short a time after Santana did ok+ in his return. Lackey gave up 26 home runs in 24 starts last year and TEX's home field is a HR friendly park.

2008 - 1 in 7 IP (99 pitches thrown)
2007 - 1 in 5 IP (96 pitches thrown)
2006 - 5 in 4 IP (90 pitches thrown)
2005 - 4 in 4.2 IP
2004 - 7 in 3.2 IP
2003 - 5 in 5 IP
2002 - 3 in 7 IP

[macadams]

I played two team parlay NYY, HOU @ 2.85 (2x)

and

BOS, CIN @2.77 (2x) trying to come back a bit

also laid a small amount on Boston (J Beckett), Florida (A Miller), Texas (V Padilla), Houston (R Oswalt) and Tampa Bay (M Garza) 15 to 1

[Jimbo42]

What up ya'll,
CK,
Had to smile a bit as I read the first line of your post... I am so pissed today at Pitt giving up 3 runs in the ninth and then Minnesota giving up 3 in the ninth! Man those are still with me this morning... San Diego came thru for me last night to salvage some of the day.

You sir are dead on with that Zona play... I'm on it too..Got a few plays today but so far
Booked :
Minnesota +170 (like that road dog off a one run loss)

GL

[Jimbo42]

Nice job on KC last night Lemon Drop

[mcbain]

The reason ARZ is a dog is because Scherzer has yet to win an MLB game in 13 starts going back to last year. If he gets it done today, good on ya.

I am spending my Greinke $$ today on:

TOR OVER 10
KC OVER 10
WSH OVER 10

[SlicWilly3]

Mets/SF UNDER 7 1/2 -115 Santana/Johnson
Mets/SF UNDER 4 (1st 5) -115
LA/Flor OVER 9 1/2 -120 2 Bums on the mound....
Colorado -110 Better team, and playing better.....Also Cook is pitching better than Snell
Colorado -1 1/2 +150
CWS +1/2 (1st 5) -130 I like Colon to keep it close early, but Toronto to ultimately win the game
Toronto -120 As above...I think Toronto wins this game.... Hedging with a great chance to win both imo.
I've been thinking about trying this when I see a game that fits.... We'll see how it works out
Milw +1/2 (1st 5) -110 Should keep it close early
Minny (RLM) +170 At +170.....Why not?
Balt/KC OVER 5 1/2 (1st 5) 2 Bums on the mound....
Arizona (1st 5) -105 Will roll with CK on this....I just don't trust the AZ bullpen to hold a lead though

I also love 3 games for YES a score in the 1st inning: 3 games and 6 bums on the mound
BOTH-Philly/Washington games and the Balt/KC game

Good Luck Everybody

[Rio DiNero]

The reason ARZ is a dog is because Scherzer has yet to win an MLB game in 13 starts going back to last year. If he gets it done today, good on ya.

I am spending my Greinke $$ today on:

TOR OVER 10
KC OVER 10
WSH OVER 10

I'm all over that KC game, been waiting for Hill to get a start this year. Davies should give up a few too, but I'm looking at KC really lighting up Hill and not letting up due to the O's beating on them last year, and the fact they just dropped 6 in a row before last nights win after a hot start to the year.
KC-120 MONSTER PLAY
KC-1.5 +165 BIG
KC OVER 10 BIG
KC-1.5, KC OVER 10 small parlay

[BL]

I really like Arizona today! Good Luck to your bets !
I know this is baseball thread... but what do you think of Lakers 1Q -3,5 or 1H -7 for tomorrow?

"Home court of course is big," Lamar Odom said. "And right now in this series, playing well in the first quarter is even bigger. You can't give up (17-1) leads. Not on the road. It just can't happen.and their older stars.

[TodaysAction]

Still pissed off at the Giants and the Marlins bullpens to day and relievers continue to do what they do. But at any rate, I will have to cool off on the Marlis with Miller coming back from the farm to pitch against A grade hitting. will also haveto pass on Lackey making his first start too. He must be faded until his form shows. I also see a mistake by the linemaker on the Snakes game.

Arizona+110 HEAVY
Arizona-1.5 +175 RRL
Red Legs-125 Volquez gets it done after the heartbreaking loss last night
Texas Team Total over 5 -110 Lackey faces live hitting part 1
Houston-110 Riding the hot bats in a slug-out. Oswalt will get it done

FWIW, we have a similar card for today.
Good thing or bad thing? Time will tell.
Based on what you list and your auto plays, I
see a cash positive day for you today.

[cocknocker]

With you again on the first ones, although this has been a mighty helter skelter week for baseball. Team totals aren't listed on Bookmaker yet, but I'll likely take the Rangers total once it's available, want to know what you think about the Rangers/Angels over 10. Looks like a pretty good bet considering Padilla is no stud, Lackey's pitching for the first time this year, and both the Rangers and Angels have been knocking the crap out of the ball recently.

What do you think?

We're gonna need for Padilla to not get that "facing their ace" mentality and decide to pitch lights out thinking this is the game of his life facing Lackey. I do think that Texas bats are too hot to not be able to pick up thier side. Let's face it. The Angels sometimes have problems with clutch time hitting. But the Rngers field is designed for one thing and one thing only. Home runs. I like your over theory. The Rangers are on fire right now...

[cocknocker]

The best looking under play for the day is the Cleveland/Tampa Bay total of 9.5 (which means that there was doubt that there would be 10 runs scored from the outset). I see no more than 24% of the public on the under anywhere. Everyone's taking the over, yet the bet is listed most places at -110. I am gonna play the under in this game and hope like hell that Pavano pitches well. If he doesn't pitch well, I hope that Tampa blows them out.

D-Rays/Wahoos under 9.5

[TheLemonDropKid]

Nice job on KC last night Lemon Drop

Mucho gracias mi amigo........I'm rollin with your early MIN play along with Jaymac's CHIS/TOR Over and my PHI/WAS Over.

Will see what else on the later games.......my challenge picks will all be later games.

[cohen59]

The best looking under play for the day is the Cleveland/Tampa Bay total of 9.5 (which means that there was doubt that there would be 10 runs scored from the outset). I see no more than 24% of the public on the under anywhere. Everyone's taking the over, yet the bet is listed most places at -110. I am gonna play the under in this game and hope like hell that Pavano pitches well. If he doesn't pitch well, I hope that Tampa blows them out.

D-Rays/Wahoos under 9.5

Under Ump or i would have taken the over BOL

[macadams]

What are challenge picks? Thanks in advance to anyone who takes the time to explain.

[cocknocker]

Ck, how you liking the over for the toronto game? This one looks good here since tubby colon is a real a-hole (pun intended), and the other guy stinks too. 6.00 era in 3 games, not HORRIBLE, but, it's not good either. and they are playing after a nice nights sleep.

All that I can say is that Colon is horrid on the road. Any play opposing his action is good until he shows his old form. No sense in waiting on him to get it together. Thumbs up especially when Toronto is such a well managed and good hitting ballclub. Advantage Blue Birds. Another advantage going into this game is that Ray has never faced the Pale Hose. One way that you may be able to box your play is to take the team total for the Blue Birds an rock it like that. Just food for thought

[khaliagent]

Under Ump or i would have taken the over BOL

ck did you jack that play based on my analysis?
(see my plays).

all kidding aside, good luck on the play looks good

[cocknocker]

What are challenge picks? Thanks in advance to anyone who takes the time to explain.

There's a challenge going on with everybody in the free world here at SBR. I don't even know what the thread is for the thing, but I know that it's Dexter and a couple of his buddies running it.

[macadams]

What are challenge picks? Thanks in advance to anyone who takes the time to explain.

Ok, saw the banner and clicked it. I get it.

[cocknocker]

FWIW, we have a similar card for today.
Good thing or bad thing? Time will tell.
Based on what you list and your auto plays, I
see a cash positive day for you today.

I know. Not quite as many crumbs today as I would like. I really think that Volquez will get the job done today and the Reds play is about at the threshold of what I like to shell out in vigorish. So hopefully he doesn't burn me and lay an egg. I hope that it's a good thing. I have had the misfortune of some relievers relieving me of some money the past few days. The Alka Seltzer is in full effect. The only bright side of things is that I am losing clean units since 75% or more of my plays are made at + money.

I feel good about the Snakes getting off the shnide today. And you know that if they win this game that we will have to take them again tomorrow.

Houston is going to be a tossup game. A pitcher of Oswalt's talent can't struggle forever. And with their offense in high gear right now, I had to take a shot.

Texas team total is a play against Lackey in his first start fresh out the farm.

[cocknocker]

ck did you jack that play based on my analysis?
(see my plays).

all kidding aside, good luck on the play looks good

Naw I just got up this morning and looked over the movement at Sportsinsights and saw the flaw right away. With a majority of that size on one side of the total it should cost more to play that side, and not be -110 both ways.

[BL]

Arizona+110 HEAVY
Red Legs-125 Volquez gets it done after the heartbreaking loss last night

I love those two. Playing both big.
Arizona will kick it and I don't see Volquez loosing with his team. I like the Runline as well. Maybe will play it later, too.
Good Luck

[cocknocker]

Volquez is up to -145 now. WOW! I don't like being in on that public of a play. And the juice is already to high for me to continue to play this one. I am going to have to let this one go. Too much vig for the way that I play.

REDS-125 NO PLAY line is now Reds-145

[Dexter]

Autobet - with the total at 7.5 or <, i'll grab the dog at <150

giants +1.5/-110 (3x)