My one play today

[jellobiafra]

I've been getting crushed in baseball lately so I'm trying something new. One play today. A money line parlay of KC/SF that pays +135.




KC sends Greinke to the mound against Adam Eaton for the Orioles. KC is trying to snap a 6 game losing steak. They are 11-7 at home and Baltimore is 4-9 on the road. Adam Eaton has a 1.6 WHIP and an ERA over 7. Greinke has a WHIP of 0.71 and 0.51 ERA. Folks, this game on paper is THE biggest lock of the year thus far. And it's a sure loser now that I'm on it.


SF sends Tim Lincecum to the hill today against Livan Hernandez of the Mets. SF is 12-6 at home and the NYM are a pedestrian 7-7 on the road. Lincecum was of course the NL Cy Young last year and despite some early season troubles is starting to turn it on. Livan Hernandez has actually been great his last 3. Despite this he has an overall ERA pushing 5 and I honestly don't know how this guy is still a viable starter for a contending team in the major leagues. This is the 2nd biggest lock on the board today, and with me endorsing it the Mets will surely rock Lincecum and kill the Giants.


So in summary - if you want to make money today - bet the Orioles and the Mets. I can almost gaurantee you one of these two big dogs will hit and make you a profit on the day.


BOL to all.

[bookiebeater24/7]

lol dude..you will win both picks for your parlay...i got Giants and Royals on the runline tonight...i feel scores of like 2-8 and 0-4.........i got 400 to win 1,340 wish me luck

[Mriswith]

humhom...the biggest lock of the year...is this sort of a 'reverse jinx ' ?

Orioles team total over 3.5 (-105)
-I like this play for a few reasons. The Orioles are one of the few teams that has hit Zeinke really hard. Zeinke has 3 career starts against the Orioles. IN 16 innings, the orioles have 25 hits and scored 18 runs. THe orioles have hit 7 homeruns against Zeinke. Zeinke struggled in his last start, a 1-0 loss to the angels. The orioles just love playinjg the royals having won 15 of last 18 against them. Over the last 31 games at Kauffman, the orioles have won 24 and lost only 7. That is too bad the orioles cannot play this well against anyone else.

Recently, the royals have been hit by the injury bug. The latest casualty is closer Soria (15 day disabled list). Without Soria, the royals are struggling to finish games. Zeinke is going to get roughed up and now its only a matter of time.

just stumbled over this earlier and now I'm wondering...

bol,
Mris

[jellobiafra]

The "lock" part is tongue in cheek. I honestly don't expect to win this parlay the way my week has gone. And if it's going to get busted it will probably be on the "on paper this is the biggest lock of the year" play. I recommend everyone take the Orioles.

In defense of playing the Royals though, this is not the same Greinke. This is an entirely different animal that has been unleashed on the league this season. Plus the 6 game losing streak. Plus the home dominance vs road patheticness.... This is on paper the biggest lock of the year. I stand by that observation. Now go fade it and make some money today people.

[jellobiafra]

By the way.... who is this Zeinke guy hoop guru is referring to? Is that a joke or does he really not know the guy's name who he is predicting will get rocked tonight?

[Mriswith]

As I said, I was just wondering and sort of giving you something to think about. Usually I revise my bets and try to figure out if I chose well and therefore won / just got beat or if I chose poorly and earned the loss / just got lucky.
Since this 'lock' part didn't match w/ hoop guru's observations at all I got curious. Your reasoning for playing the Royals sounds valid - thanks for sharing your thoughts on this one.

bol w/ your parlay,
Mris

[GGPLAYER]

[quote=jellobiafra;1847092]I've been getting crushed in baseball lately so I'm trying something new.

We have something in common! I wish I could stop but eveyday I see games I like, etc.. Any way I'm on these two games but some for slightly different reasons. I am going to chase them because they both lost the opener and have a 4 game stand. It's something another guy (BouncedCheck) came up with on this forum. It's been dead on this year and what's the difference if I lose chasing or playing my regular picks?

GL bro because I'll be right there with you

[cohen59]

I like KC with out a doubt and would lean towards the Giants at home with TL on the mound but if the mets decide that they want to hit today you may be in some trouble overall like the bet though BOL!

[G's pks]

jello..if you are in a losing streak cut back...the baseball season is so long. This is what makes it so hard to win...the compulsive gambler has to have action on the early game, afternoon games, and then the late games. Cut back and until you show you can win do not waste your cash.

Hope you hit today, no opinion on the games you chose from me...do not know enough about them right now to comment...

[GGPLAYER]

I think he is cutting back...his post says that he is only doing this one play today.

[jellobiafra]

The scariest thing about these plays is that everyone is going to like it at face value. They are the biggest favorites on the board. It's such a square play, but in this case I think it goes deeper than that. All the reasons I've listed for the Royals tonight - Greinke to stop a long losing steak and fading Adam Eaton are the biggest. Then Lincecum totally outclasses Hernandez. The Mets have won 6 in a row vs SFG dating back to last season. If ever there was a time to shake that monkey....this is their shot. They need the game to have a chance at winning the series. They've been great at home. I just feel like Lincecum is going to dominate. So that means he will most defitintely get rocked. Book it.

[cohen59]

The scariest thing about these plays is that everyone is going to like it at face value. They are the biggest favorites on the board. It's such a square play, but in this case I think it goes deeper than that. All the reasons I've listed for the Royals tonight - Greinke to stop a long losing steak and fading Adam Eaton are the biggest. Then Lincecum totally outclasses Hernandez. The Mets have won 6 in a row vs SFG dating back to last season. If ever there was a time to shake that monkey....this is their shot. They need the game to have a chance at winning the series. They've been great at home. I just feel like Lincecum is going to dominate. So that means he will most defitintely get rocked. Book it.

At the last sentence i think that my one play of the day is going to be Detroit First 5 innings vs. A's!

[jellobiafra]

I think he is cutting back...his post says that he is only doing this one play today.

Exactly. This is it. If I lose, I lose one bet. I'll take that over the 5 or 6 (I lost count) that I lost yesterday. +135 odds on this is tasty. If the Royals win I might even go hedge with a Mets ML bet to gaurantee a profit on the day.

[G's pks]

I think he is cutting back...his post says that he is only doing this one play today.

but then he mentions another play..

[jellobiafra]

but then he mentions another play..

G. You're not paying close enough attention. The only other possible play would be if the Royals win to bet the Mets ML. That would be a hedge to guarantee plus money for the day. Get it? If the Royals win I'd be sitting on +135 for the SFG to win. I could get about +150 to +160 for the Mets to win. Both sides of the same game at plus money. It would be a win-win situation that I may have to consider.

Why don't you let me worry about that after the Royals win.... which isn't gonna happen anyway.

[d2bets]

Looks good.

[GGPLAYER]

Jello you got boned. Two nights in a row SF has choked in the late innings. I went to bed thinking I had a winner.

[theplagy]

SF fcked me hard too

[RonPaul2008]

that sucks

SF fcked me hard too