Mr. Crumbs Leans for Wednesday 5/13/09

[ASH0479]

....

Carlyse comes in and gives up a grand slam...the Braves bullpen is terrible...

Lets get some of these runs back

[macadams]

Whaddup board? Here's what I'm going with.

SF

Martis has a deceptively good record, and sometimes he gets downright chased early. I have to go with the much ridiculed lefty Zito, he looked good to me last time out and his numbers are moving in the right direction after an atrocious start to the season. WSH has been hitting the ball ok, but it is time for another comedy of errors in the field. SF getting warmer with the bats and seems to me a positive vibe is around that ballclub at the moment. 1.74x it pays, give me that and whip it into a parlay with:

The Reds. When you're betting, you want to have the best player on the field on your side of things. In this game that might be the Reds pitcher Cueto who's given up only 10 hits and one ER on the road so far - 19.2 innings pitched. He's i'th zone, he in the Reds' lights out district Zona don't have much on'em off'sively and they be sporting a rookie at the pitcherspot tonight (he has been absolutely dominant at the lower levels lately: 5-0 with an 0.78 ERA at Double-A Mobile - but you have to think MLB is something else entirely). 1.72x it pays

so all parlayed up and ready to go, this duo pays 3 to 1 exactly --- put me down for that

Good luck tonight guys, be cashing now.

[laxdjock]

I like both SF and CIN....interesting parlay. Using the RL's I get +461, tempting.....IIRC Zito isn't horrible at home, and Ceuto is shutdown.

[SlicWilly3]

CLE/CWS Under 1st 5 is looking mighty good right now.....great pick!

Thanks bro....

For the late games I'm liking:

Cincy -138: Cueto has been lights out this year and is facing a kid making his major league debut. The kid has been solid in Double A, but this is the big leagues kiddo, and your facing a nasty pitcher and the BEST road team in all of baseball in the Reds. Cincy's bullpen has been slightly better than AZ's this year too.

Cubs -1 1/2 +120: Lilly has been pitching well, and the Cubs have been playing fairly well. Opposite for SD.....There hitting is terrible and even worse against lefties with a batting avg of .211 While the Cubs are hitting .262 against righties on the year. Oh, and the wind is blowing OUT at Wrigley at around 20+ mph! I think the Cubs will win this one by a good amount of runs, as they are clearly a much more powerful and better hitting team.

Denver Nuggets -8 1/2 (Bought 1pt and a half): Dallas is cooked. I don't see anyway that the series doesn't end tonight. And Denver will feed off the crowd and with this game by double digits. Of course I bought it to -8 1/2 just to be safe, because anything can happen. But I think they win by 15+

Good luck everybody

[laxdjock]

I love Lilly against SD, who look like a rookie league team at the plate.

[wangichu]

with you on florida (nolasco is going to start gemming if they keep undervaluing him), as well as the nats (martis is their ace, the guy they always win for). I also like the cubs on the runline as lilly can be dominant at home and the fathers are just flat out slumping.

most of all however. Bannister can be very streaky, but when he's on, he's dominant, and he's on right now, so i'm hopping the money train until it stops. Great spot for a KC cover today too after getting blown out by the A's with their de facto ace on the mound yesterday. Josh Outhouse should get touched up in the name of bannister support

KC ML (big)

FLA ML
WAS ML
CHC -1.5

[ASH0479]

Can the braves finally hold onto a lead?? Come on now, one more friggin out.

[Vreston]

Yeah Braves! They held on!
Nice way to start off the day (or night for me!).
Now I'm waiting on the Nat's. And later the Marlins.

I thought to myself earlier today to wait until after Atlanta and Washington games were over to see if I'd won to decide how much to bet on Denver -4.5 1st half and -8.5 game. How dumb can I get!
Now the line is up to 5.5 and 9.5 respectively. Don't know if I should go with it now.
Anyway... this is a baseball thread.

[RoagBettor]

I'd wait for CK's input, he might be all over Dallas tonight based upon his comments after Game 4.

[xxdjstriderxx]

nice win on atl

[kmarinouofm]

marlins are def the play.. huge RLM on this game.. almost 60 % on MiL yet marlins open at +130 and are now down to even money? Don't have to ask me twice to bet on the marlins

[isiah121]

CK, how much $$$ are you putting on your HEAVY plays and for the crumbs play?

[xxdjstriderxx]

wow nats RRL looking GREAT!

[cnleaf]

I think ck is waiting until the last minute to take dal and under in that game. Those two should be the correct call

[Rick22]

You guys scare me. I see the RLM movement, but the Brewers pen has improved greatly and I think they can get to Nolasco, so I'm going to try a small bet on them. Probably a mistake - but a bit of the homer. GL

[jdiddy]

Thanks CK. I was with you on the Braves and now definitely taking the Marlins.

[xxdjstriderxx]

nice hits bro on braves and nats

[Savage0765]

CK, how much $$$ are you putting on your HEAVY plays and for the crumbs play?

I dont ask for $$$$$$ but more Unit wise...what the Big,heavy units?

Nice call the RRL on the Nats..

1 last thing whats ur bet on the Ball game ?? since the Spread went from -8.5 to 10 ???

[Dexter]

posted from last nights thread, with an added autobet:

wed-

it looks to me is if jamie moyer has finally hit the end. at 47, he has shown nothing thus far in 2009 - in his last 3 he has an era/whip of 8.36/2.00 and for his career vs the dodgers a 6.96/1.36. wolf pitched a solid game last year at citizens bank going 6ip/2er/9k's.

dodgers -110

the cubs score well when lilly wins, and i fully expect them to take care of the struggling young in wrigley tomorrow. can they cover the 1.5 runs at a nice price? in all 4 of lillys wins, the cubs have won each game by 2+ runs and an avg win margin of 4. young has been very poor away from petco with a 6.97/1.80.

cubs -1.5/+120 (2x)

buehrle has a .95 whip in his last 3, while lee has a 1.17 whip - lee tossed a complete game shutout vs these whitesox last year at cleav - this time, no quentin.

under indians 8.5

over rays 11 (3x - Autobet) with both pitchers having an avg whip >1.80 in their last 3

nuggets -8.5 (3x)

[cocknocker]

I'm going over 210 with a 3 point buy on Dallas/Denver game 5

[theplagy]

Thx Crumb!!

lotsa crumb today bro !

[RoagBettor]

I'm going over 210 with a 3 point buy on Dallas/Denver game 5

[Dexter]

CK, use the spreadsheet so everyone can see you're picks and dollar amounts on the sheet. It helps a lot and also lets you know hoe good/bad you are doing by showing the record on the bottom and how much you are up/down.

It's a great tool SBR has and I think it would be a good tool for you and others who track your picks

Good Luck tonight CK

doesnt that spreadsheet allow for edits to be made after games have started? i believe it does which makes the spreadsheet useless imo.

much easier to do as i do - post your plays with lines before the games AND NEVER EDIT THAT POST.

if someone wants to tail you, you're plays are documented.

[Dexter]

CK, how much $$$ are you putting on your HEAVY plays and for the crumbs play?

lol - how much did you make on your income tax return this year?

[ram1502]

Wow, the Caps just didn't show up. That should do it.

[peterpan19]

thursday plays:
FLO
SF
DET
SEA
CLE

GL

[peterpan19]

todays picks in challenge thread...forgot to post it here...

GL and go dodgers

[peterpan19]

willis looks bad again... someone remind me to fade him next time hes pitching...back in the days with the marlins he was sweet, but now ?...ouch

edit:
nice catch to turn the double play...hell he is lucky so far...should be something like 3-0 or 4-0...

[martinmobley]

Cashed in NICELY on that Nats pick earlier! Didn't seem like too many others agreed. Thanks CK! Nothing like starting a day of with an ML RRL!! Makes the rest of the day fun. Let's hope these Marlin's can continue.

What do you think about taking Dallas at +10? I know you're taking the over, but I'm worried about it.

[jellobiafra]

Nolasco is going on the "no-play" list for me. I can't put up with him anymore until he gets it straight. I think he's given up at least 5 ER in every game but one this season. Not sure if he deserves the rep he has as a potential ace. Has he really earned that?

On the other hand, a real ace is throwing for FLA tomorrow and at even money to boot. I'm not looking a gift horse in the mouth. I'm all over JJ. Same for Verlander. Great odds on two of the most dominant guys going right now.

[laxdjock]

Any late game plays?

I'm liking wakefield on the RL.

Thoughts?

[showtime2000]

Ahhhhh, yes, game 7 in pucks, 2 of the best in the game going at it tonight, Crosby vs Ovechkin.
Although i had Washington last game, they were fortunate to leave Pittsburgh with the win.
I like my chances with Pittsburgh tonight, Gonchar looks to be back, experience, and goaltending should help them tonight. Public on Washinton pl but the line is moving up?

Puck play,

Pittsburgh +110



GLA

And Pittsburgh cashes the ticket!

[jellobiafra]

I'm on KC.

[JayLiang]

pretty damn correct with these picks, thanks

[laxdjock]

I like KC too....plus money too. Bannister is a NYM castoff. He has some good pitches, though he can be inconsistent....even so, I'm expecting a decent game from him tonight.

KC +105 ML, 1 unit