Mr.Crumbs Leans for Tuesday 5/12/09

[cocknocker]

Well for today's diamond tilt I like

Yanks+120 Burnette will keep it close, Yanks will hit Halliday
Atlanta-103 Don't stop the streak, let the streak stop you
Houston+150 False favorite. The Astros are streaking
Florida/Milwaukee over 10

I don't know why, but Halladay still has a sub .500 record in his last ten -150 line games. So I have to fade him. Why not with Burnette and his familiarity with how to pitch in that park? I'll roll with the crumbs on this one. A-Rod's presence in the lineup makes other people get better pitches to hit.

Yanks +120 Crumbs Play-O-The Day

I am taking the Braves for no other reason than the fact that they are viewed as "injured" with Chipper out, they are streaking and Jurrjens and Pelfrey are facing off for the 4th time in direct competition. Jair is 2 up and 1 down. I think that means that I should stick with him. The Mets had their hot period against lesser teams, but now it's back to reality. Atlanta will win in a shootout.

Braves -103

You've got all the makings of a good crumbs play at work here. One team is reeling and the other team is coming in on their first road game after a sweep. The dog even has the better pitcher on the bump. Jiminez horrid record as a -150 or more starter made him an autofade for me. Paulino has a better era and whip than Jiminez. I was gonna take the run line and play it safe. Then i woke up and came to my senses. These types of crumbs are too hard to pass up.

Houston+150

Koronka is a mediocre lefty. He is facing the Brewers a team that hits lefties well. At the same time he has his own potent offense backing him. Parra is very hittable, and allows a ton of base runners with walks. He has a terrible pick off move. The umpire for this game has a very tight strike zone, and by the time the pitchers get used to it 6 runs have scored.

Milwaukee/Florida over 10 -115



Late Night Delight


A's/Royals under 8.5 -115 (Note the home green)

Hochevar is tearing up the AAA leagues with a 5-0 mark with 0.90 era. I give the slight lean to the Royals, but the under appeals more to me than the side.

[shoebox]

nice job yesterday, solid calls..

[Savage0765]

Epic picher battle tommorow. jays vs nyy. Master vs the student. I like the fact that burnett know the rogers center well. Close game let's hope the jays bat gonna cold off a bit.

Btw anoter great day Monday.

[SlicWilly3]

Nice plays Monday CK....
Love your Orlando and Lakers plays tonight....

I have 1 baseball game that I absolutely love. Usually when i love a game this much it hits.
Anaheim Angels -130
Weaver Vs. Masterson
Last 3 starts Weaver has a 2.05 ERA, and a whip of .068!
Last 3 starts Masterson has a 6.62 ERA, and a whip of 1.52
Also Anaheim is at home, and Pedroia is OUT! Youkalis is DOUBTFUL again....

I parlayed those 3.... $150 to win $588

Orlando +4 1/2 (Bought 2) -150
LA Lakers -9 1/2 (Bought 2) -150
Angels -130

Other baseball picks I like are:

Atlanta -105 Pelfreys garbage, and Jurrjens has been lights out, also Chipper Jones is probable.
Toronto -145 Halladay at home is usually money in the bank. Jays hit the ball better at home too.
TB/Balt OVER 10 1/2 -115 Simply put 2 jabroni's pitching.... ERA's of 5.82 and 6.57 in their last 3 starts, and BOTH pitchers whip's are in the 1.7's! Enough said......Expect a lot of runs/hits/walks.....

Good luck everybody

[kmarinouofm]

to tired and drunk from watching bball all night.. but at a first glance i am loving the Marlins over..

[The_Kid]

The Reds at +175 look pretty good. Owings is facing his former team in a place where he knows how to pitch. Owings is a pretty good hitter too so Haren won't have any easy outs. I know Haren has pitched pretty darn good this year but I can't back Arizona with their pathetic offense. At +175, why not?

[peterpan19]

PIT (2x) ...Duke just faced them last week...he will make the proper adjustments today...give mt the home dog here

LAD...on the road...two cold teams...why not take the better pitcher here ?

ATL (3x)... JJ at plus money against Pelfrey, who is so lucky he already has 4 wins and 0 losses... look out for another mets bullpen meltdown today

LAA...Weaver on the mound again against a struggling Masterson...I take the slight home fav on that one...

adding
DET... just too good to pass here today...Galarraga might have had rough outings in may... but Slowey also finds a way to loose too...give me the crumbs in that one...

GL

[danrman]

right on peterpan and wellemeyer is 1-2 at pitts...

the mets are equally hurt w/ delgado out and jurrijens lost his last time out in ny

it says slowey of minn is 2-0 vs. det.. those 2 victories were in det.. they are playing in minn.. gimme galaraga and the tigers..

if i side w/ the yankees and they beat tor's ace then i'd have to take tor vs pettitte the next day.. dont know yet..

feldman for the rangers last meeting vs. seattle in tex... he gave up 6 runs

weaver for laa-alternated wins and losses vs boston since 07 at home.. won his last time earlier this year and gave up no runs...

kershaw for the dodgers-was shelled for 9 runs his last time in philly.. park pitched great last time vs. phillies and is a former dodger

tb-sonnanstine face hendricks earlier this year and lost in balt.. i like tb coming off the loss to boston and sonnanstine in a revenge spot

it says peavy is 2-1 vs. the cubs.. my research shows him 2-2 at chi and 2-0 at sd

hochevar for kc is their top pitching prospect.. cahill has more walks than strikeouts

haren has never faced cinn in ariz as a d'back... 1-1 was as an oak. a

hope that helps and dex you are a GIANT DOUCHE

[Dexter]

fuk you you lying mother fuker.. your a real asshole.. go fuk yourself you fukin busybody piece of shit

*this was dans pm to me

[danrman]

damn right and i stand behind everyword of it you lying piece of shit.. tell some more lies about me and other falsehoods and i'll be happy to send you another.. get a fukin life you lying busybody

[peterpan19]

guys

it is really early Tuesday morning and your already at each others throat ??...give me a break... if you have to do this do it via PM or start a thread for your little smacktalk...would you plz ?...I mean we are all here to make money and we should use our energy to find some nice plays and not destroy each other all day and night long...ok ?

GL today

[Jimbo42]

Good Morning:

Booked:
Seattle Mariners +130
(Texas coming home after successful long road trip... Div. rival will be waiting on 'em)
Baltimore Orioles +115
(B'more a decent team at home..Home dog div. rival crumbs!)GL

[Jimbo42]

Also played (but smaller):

Philly -115

Florida +140

GL to all

[jdiddy]

DO I'm usually with you. But what do you have against my man Doc Halladay? I think he's been taking your $ all year. Are you out for revenge?

[RoagBettor]

CK - thanks for yesterday. Here's a recap of what I played and hit:

Cavs -9.5
Dal/Den over 211
Braves +175
Braves -1.5
Indians -1.5 (kudos also to danrman)
Indians -2.5
SFO -1.5
SFO -2.5
SFO/Was over 8.5
Parlay (Braves, Indians -1.5, Giants -1.5)

The only bet I lost was Denver 2H based upon the halftime interview theory (13 straight up until last night)!

[cocknocker]

DO I'm usually with you. But what do you have against my man Doc Halladay? I think he's been taking your $ all year. Are you out for revenge?

On the contrary, no he hasn't. I've only went against him 3 times this season, and I am WAY up because I hit him with a big plus money job and a +1.5 play with Texas and the Pale Hose. He did get me against the Angels, but nobody was expecting the Angels to win anyway. So guess what, I only lost just the units for that one, and not a drop of vigorish.

Get your facts straight. But then again, maybe you weren't talking to me. All that I know is that if the Yanks win this one straight up, I will be even more ahead fading Halladay this year. I know what I'm doing when it comes to fading -150 or more lines regardless of who the pitcher is. I'm even ahead of Johan Santana. I won so many units going against him yesterday it's pathetic. And because of the way that I wager, it would take 4 losses going against Santana for him to catch up to the money I won off of fading him so far this year.

[cocknocker]

right on peterpan and wellemeyer is 1-2 at pitts...

the mets are equally hurt w/ delgado out and jurrijens lost his last time out in ny

it says slowey of minn is 2-0 vs. det.. those 2 victories were in det.. they are playing in minn.. gimme galaraga and the tigers..

if i side w/ the yankees and they beat tor's ace then i'd have to take tor vs pettitte the next day.. dont know yet..

feldman for the rangers last meeting vs. seattle in tex... he gave up 6 runs

weaver for laa-alternated wins and losses vs boston since 07 at home.. won his last time earlier this year and gave up no runs...

kershaw for the dodgers-was shelled for 9 runs his last time in philly.. park pitched great last time vs. phillies and is a former dodger

tb-sonnanstine face hendricks earlier this year and lost in balt.. i like tb coming off the loss to boston and sonnanstine in a revenge spot

it says peavy is 2-1 vs. the cubs.. my research shows him 2-2 at chi and 2-0 at sd

hochevar for kc is their top pitching prospect.. cahill has more walks than strikeouts

haren has never faced cinn in ariz as a d'back... 1-1 was as an oak. a

hope that helps and dex you are a GIANT DOUCHE

Another station break


Everything was a good upgrade except the last part. Only outsiders talk like that to fellow comrades this late in the game. If Dexter said that you were making calls after the game was in progress then I'm gonna have to roll with the side of the family. If you didn't make late calls and made them before the games started yesterday then keep up the good work. Continue making all of your picks look like these above and this whole thing is forgotten. Do the late thing again then you might as well break rank because that is frowned upon. In that circumstance just do like roag bettor and collect your cash and don't even mention it if you hit it and didn't post it.

No need for the personal attacks when everyone has the same goal. You guys want this thing to start looking like G's Picks wannabe page? You want it to look like Machince's thread? Something has to give. It's too early in the morning for this shit. Secondly, you can't be sideways with Dex in public like that. You have to handle this type of thing in PM. This is a quality guy from our former home where this whole underground thing of ours started. So in order for you to be able to come into our thread and call him a douche, you would have to have similar tenure for it to be okay. This is the kind of shit that made our man chuck disappear. It ain't okay to wake up in the mornin' and call our boy a douche on our thread.

I thought that this was a class place with class guys making picks supported by sound reasoning. Y'all take that shit elsewhere.

[chucksmith]

Well put, l broke rank and got out of line but am back to trying to post nothing but informed plays and encouragement and/or thanks

Let's all meet at the window tonight and stuff our pockets.

[RoagBettor]

As I said yesterday, I don't post picks anymore (I'm done with my teaser/parlay threads). I'm just tailing CK and that's it, why f**k around on my own when all I want to do is make money and CK is a proven winner? I have no ego when it comes to capping and betting. I couldn't care less about challenges either, but I enjoy the benefits.

I can see why people get wiped out gambling. I've been wiped out plenty of times, but then I found this place and I'm learning money management. I may change my name to RoagTailer.

[Foghorn]

I think another strong "crumb" play is SF (RL +165) over Washington. Cain is 3-0 in his last 3 vs Wash and has an ERA or 0.42 in those games. Washington is starting J. Zimmerman who has given up 11 runs in his last 11 innings. Wash is 4-11 on the road, and SF has won 14 of their last 20, including a home record of 10-4.
SAN FRANCISCO (2 units)

[cocknocker]

I see that Hochevar is making his first start in a recall effort. He was 5-0 in his AAA starts and a 0.90 ERA. WOW. With all of that momentum I have to ride it and take the crumbs on this one today. It's not like the A's are tearing it up right now...Cahill is also a good pitcher too. I like the under better than the side.

Royals/A's under 8.5

[chucksmith]

CUBS -132

I do not typically lay this much juice but I think Harden rights the ship and dominates a light hitting Padre lineup that has not seen much of him.

[OperatorX]

Fantastic picks last night CK, I missed ATL but was on SF and CLE.. continued success.

[SlicWilly3]

Another strong play I believe is Anaheim to win the 3 game series at Home against Boston. I just got the line at -120 at Bookmaker.

Pitching match ups:

Today: Masterson Vs. Weaver
Wednesday: Wakefield Vs. Palmer
Thursday: Penny Vs. Saunders

I think the edge goes to the Angels definitely today, and Thursday. With Wednesday's game being a toss up.

[cocknocker]

I just made my Braves play at -103, which suits me just fine because it's almost even money

[Rick22]

CK and guys,
Thanks to all of you. I am brand new to baseball and the amount of knowledge I have received in the last month is unbelievable. Like Roag I've been tailing alot - here and a few other threads have also been helpful. But WOW, you guys are the best. Hopefully in the near future I'll be able to contribute something as I continue to learn. Thanks again. And CK thanks for keeping this a quality thread.

[chucksmith]

Another strong play I believe is Anaheim to win the 3 game series at Home against Boston. I just got the line at -120 at Bookmaker.

Pitching match ups:

Today: Masterson Vs. Weaver
Wednesday: Wakefield Vs. Palmer
Thursday: Penny Vs. Saunders

I think the edge goes to the Angels definitely today, and Thursday. With Wednesday's game being a toss up.

Doesnt hurt that Pedrioa and Youk are banged up too. Only thing that scares me is ANA recent offensive output.

[melincrea]

I have Halladay at -130 at Pinnacle... are you sure about this one CK?! Not bashing your pick (as I'm sure you know you have noticed my name now, asking you many questions in your threads), but you have gone 1-3 against Halladay

[cocknocker]

The Giants are gonna crush the Mets in their next series. And the lines will probably be plus money throughout. I'm gonna take a stab at the series price for the Giants when it's released. They are hot, and by the time the Braves get through with the Mets, they won't be hot anymore. That winning streak that they had is still fresh in the minds of their backers. The books will get it all back within one week

[cocknocker]

I have Halladay at -130 at Pinnacle... are you sure about this one CK?! Not bashing your pick (as I'm sure you know you have noticed my name now, asking you many questions in your threads), but you have gone 1-3 against Halladay

2-1 I had a +1.5 job with the White Sox and a straight up win with the Rangers. He creamed the Angels

[melincrea]

Ahh.. okay.. I will be on the other side of your bet tonight, so good luck! But I am a little scared, as Halladay's record this season is 6-1.. the ratio seems to good to add another one on to that..

[cohen59]

After last nights numbers i'm tailin you all the way tonight TA keep up the awesome work!!

[OperatorX]

CUBS -132

I do not typically lay this much juice but I think Harden rights the ship and dominates a light hitting Padre lineup that has not seen much of him.

I agree with this and generally like your insight and picks.. rolling with you on this one tonight BOL

[tbill11]

I see that Hochevar is making his first start in a recall effort. He was 5-0 in his AAA starts and a 0.90 ERA. WOW. With all of that momentum I have to ride it and take the crumbs on this one today. It's not like the A's are tearing it up right now...Cahill is also a good pitcher too. I like the under better than the side.

Royals/A's under 8.5

On top of that, balls just DIE in Oakland at night. I've seen way too many homeruns get cut down in that Marine layer and turn into long outs (actually, MLB.com just did a piece on this...it's a pretty big problem).

Might wanna make this a heavy play, the A's bats are miserable but Cahill will also make the Royals look pretty silly.


My big question right now is on the Twins-Tigers game. Looking like a no-play for me, but getting crumbs on Galaragga is hard to pass up, and I think he's due for a good start. What do you think CK?

[Smith]

ck, question? I know you dont go after picks who are favored by more than -130 usually. I know you haven't backed Halladayd the past 3 times he has pitched, because i was with you. And we won 1 of those which was totaly worth it, but with him only being -135 or so, are you really confident in the Yankees? Or do you unconsciously not like the Jays.