MLB - Friday, 9/16/16

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Plays Friday

Twins +181 (Heritage)
White Sox / Royals OVER 7.5 +105 (Heritage)


YTD: 416-427-21, +2.67

[philliesfinest]

where the haters??????? great job ,you silenced them

[dirtycash66]

where the haters??????? great job ,you silenced them

Don't pop the champagne bottle just yet, LT never stays in the green for more than a few days

[jjgold]

Unreal

Back in blue

[44 Mag]

2 MLB Plays Friday

Twins +181 (Heritage)
White Sox / Royals OVER 7.5 +105 (Heritage)


YTD: 416-427-21, +2.67

What about you 2 fav's??? They have been killing for you.

[LT Profits]

What about you 2 fav's??? They have been killing for you.

I know but not today. Can't bet Rays as favorites vs. a team fighting for playoff positioning and A's success had as much to do with Royals basically quitting. Tougher matchup today, in fact Texas is 60%er with Hamels.

[LT Profits]

60%ers:

Important Note: I am ignoring all Cubs games this weekend and probably until their series vs. St. Louis begins next Friday.

Mets 60% (-150)
Boston 61% (-156)
Cleveland 63% (-170)
Washington 69% (-223)
Texas 67% (-203)
Colorado 62% (-163)

[mikeyplata]

60%ers:

Important Note: I am ignoring all Cubs games this weekend and probably until their series vs. St. Louis begins next Friday.

Mets 60% (-150)
Boston 61% (-156)
Cleveland 63% (-170)
Washington 69% (-223)
Texas 67% (-203)
Colorado 62% (-163)

What are 60%ers?

[LT Profits]

What are 60%ers?

Teams that model gives at least a 60% chance of winning. I only post them because guys asked for them. I am rarely on them myself and am AGAINST them at times when the price is right, i.e., Twins +181 vs. Mets today.

[H-Diesel503]

Teams that model gives at least a 60% chance of winning. I only post them because guys asked for them. I am rarely on them myself and am AGAINST them at times when the price is right, i.e., Twins +181 vs. Mets today.

Twins 3rd baseman is out who has a lot of the power in their lineup with 23 homers and 60rbis and the pitcher is a trash rookie with 1 quality start in last 11. Additionally had a travel day yesterday.

Colon is 2.5era over last 8 starts and fighting for playoff positioning. Mets roll tonight....

Twins is dead money.

[italiano]

i was thinking this... how someone can say that tonight metz will lose if they are playing for playoff position??

Twins 3rd baseman is out who has a lot of the power in their lineup with 23 homers and 60rbis and the pitcher is a trash rookie with 1 quality start in last 11. Additionally had a travel day yesterday.

Colon is 2.5era over last 8 starts and fighting for playoff positioning. Mets roll tonight....

Twins is dead money.

[Slanina]

Positive! Nice work.

[fieryking]

Mets win big

[italiano]

what do you thing about baltimore??

[LT Profits]

i was thinking this... how someone can say that tonight metz will lose if they are playing for playoff position??

Same way Twins knocked off Tigers, A's knocked off Royals and Rays knocked off both Blue Jays and Orioles this week, Those three spoiler teams have continued to play hard.

[H-Diesel503]

i was thinking this... how someone can say that tonight metz will lose if they are playing for playoff position??

You mean win?? I guess the rationale is that they are dialed in and not taking games off. Having a motivated team has to be worth something.

[LT Profits]

Twins 3rd baseman is out who has a lot of the power in their lineup with 23 homers and 60rbis and the pitcher is a trash rookie with 1 quality start in last 11. Additionally had a travel day yesterday.

Colon is 2.5era over last 8 starts and fighting for playoff positioning. Mets roll tonight....

Twins is dead money.

See the 60%ers, I expect to lose this play 60% of the time but the +181 made it +EV (per model)

[H-Diesel503]

Same way Twins knocked off Tigers, A's knocked off Royals and Rays knocked off both Blue Jays and Orioles this week, Those three spoiler teams have continued to play hard.

I was on the twins vs tigers. Tigers pitcher was coming off some back injury and first start coming off DL. Twins pitcher was solid and they had Sanu in lineup. Colon is better pitcher and Sanu went home yesterday....

[LT Profits]

what do you thing about baltimore??

Model actually has RAYS 53% (-113) with Archer, I just don't want to lay odds vs. a team fighting for playoff positioning. If Rays were underdogs again, I would have certainly been on them.

[LT Profits]

I was on the twins vs tigers. Tigers pitcher was coming off some back injury and first start coming off DL. Twins pitcher was solid and they had Sanu in lineup. Colon is better pitcher and Sanu went home yesterday....

And I rode the Tampa Bay and Oakland bandwagons this week. Time to hop on the Minnesota train.

But seriously, the -150 model number already has Kennys Vargas in for Sano so his absence is built in. And let's not forget Berrios was one of top pitching prospects in all of baseball when he came up, he is not as bad as his frontline stats. Model rates him at 106, or 6% worse than average pitcher, so he is not really that horrid.

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

3 MLB Plays Friday

Twins +181 (Heritage)
White Sox / Royals OVER 7.5 +105 (Heritage)
Astros +116 (Bookmaker)

[H-Diesel503]

Model actually has RAYS 53% (-113) with Archer, I just don't want to lay odds vs. a team fighting for playoff positioning. If Rays were underdogs again, I would have certainly been on them.

LT what are the main variables used for your model?

Also, can you recommend a source for comprehensive baseball data with ATS?

Appreciate it.

Thanks

[LT Profits]

LT what are the main variables used for your model?

Also, can you recommend a source for comprehensive baseball data with ATS?

Appreciate it.

Thanks

The only thing I'll reveal is vast majority of model components are saber stats available at fangraphs

As for ATS stuff, I guess covers although stuff like that is pretty meaningless to me

[H-Diesel503]

The only thing I'll reveal is vast majority of model components are saber stats available at fangraphs

As for ATS stuff, I guess covers although stuff like that is pretty meaningless to me

Thanks. Also there might be a huge opp in the Cubs game. Looking at the lineup today on baseballpress.com it's basically all backups. None of the stars are playing. Lachey is good but not sure it can hold this B team.... Worth a look.

[juicername]

And I rode the Tampa Bay and Oakland bandwagons this week. Time to hop on the Minnesota train.

But seriously, the -150 model number already has Kennys Vargas in for Sano so his absence is built in. And let's not forget Berrios was one of top pitching prospects in all of baseball when he came up, he is not as bad as his frontline stats. Model rates him at 106, or 6% worse than average pitcher, so he is not really that horrid.

Respect your work but gonna have to agree to disagree on Berrios. The guy is getting slaughtered in the big leagues, just no way around it. Perhaps he just doesn't cut it mentally. Berrios on the mound + the Twins atrocious bullpen screams over just about every game to me .

That being said, Colon is not one to be trusted either so it's quite possible value on Minny tonight.

[The Giant]

[pilebuck13]

The kc total what did u get T?

[LT Profits]

The kc total what did u get T?

8.4

[LT Profits]

Another MLB Addition

4 MLB Plays Friday

Twins +181 (Heritage)
Nationals / Braves UNDER 8 -115 (Heritage)
White Sox / Royals OVER 7.5 +105 (Heritage)
Astros +116 (Bookmaker)

[LT Profits]

Since I only see the Nationals Under 8 available at Heritage, before somebody asks let me add that Under 7.5 is good at +100 or better

[Nateboogy]

Was about to ask that lol. Let's get em.

[pilebuck13]

8.4

Thnx T

[getlucky2win]

Tailing today. Nice line on twins. Why the late addition under? Just wondering since line has been about same all day

[aramakilx]

what happened with sea/hou ml odds? huge drop hou

[LT Profits]

Tailing today. Nice line on twins. Why the late addition under? Just wondering since line has been about same all day

I was a bit late removing Freddie Freeman from lineup