MLB - Monday, 9/5/16

Nateboogy · 09-05-16, 07:42 AM

Is twins with berrios pitching?

LT Profits · 09-05-16, 08:30 AM

Originally posted by Nateboogy

Is twins with berrios pitching?

Indeed, i ran model after pitching change

l7ustin · 09-05-16, 08:43 AM

60%s? Texas seattle model?

LT Profits · 09-05-16, 09:00 AM

60%ers:

Cubs 64% (-178)
Washington 70% (-233)
Boston 69% (-223)

Already faded Washington with Braves +295

LT Profits · 09-05-16, 09:03 AM

Originally posted by l7ustin

60%s? Texas seattle model?

Texas 55% (-122), 6.1

44 Mag · 09-05-16, 09:22 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

6 MLB Play Monday

Phillies / Marlins UNDER 8.5 -120 (Bookmaker)
Orioles / Rays UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
Twins +133 (Heritage)
Braves +295 (5 Dimes)
Braves / Nationals UNDER 7.5 +105 (Heritage)
Rangers / Mariners UNDER 7 +105 (Heritage)

YTD: 391-405-20, -4.07

Good Morning, care to explain the rationale of taking Atlanta vs. Max @ Home???? And the Twins with Berrios????? If you have time, if not I understand.

l7ustin · 09-05-16, 09:41 AM

I thought texas had more value. I dont say it often enough but thank you lt i check in daily for your numbers.

LT Profits · 09-05-16, 09:51 AM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

Good Morning, care to explain the rationale of taking Atlanta vs. Max @ Home???? And the Twins with Berrios????? If you have time, if not I understand.

As you see, model has Washington 70% (-233), I usually tend to ignore variance with +200+ dogs unless it is extreme, and I thought 62 points qualified as "extreme". Note the Under also pointing to low scoring game giving big dog even more value, I am debuting Ryan Weber with a 104 rating (i.e., 4% worse than average pitcher), which is not terrible for a first time starter.

As for Twins, I rate Berrios and Kennedy about equally bad, Kennedy's 3.66 ERA is a mirage based on his 4.59 xFIP, he has been extremely lucky with a .261 BABIP allowed and an 84.1% strand rate. That made Royals overvalued road favorites at the time of my bet as model has Kansas City 54% (-117), although Twins have taken a ton of money since then and are no longer bettable at current market.

LT Profits · 09-05-16, 09:54 AM

Originally posted by l7ustin

I thought texas had more value. I dont say it often enough but thank you lt i check in daily for your numbers.

You mean despite the fact that model hates entire Texas rotation outside of Hamels and sometimes Darvish?

But seriously, you are very welcome.

44 Mag · 09-05-16, 09:57 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

As you see, model has Washington 70% (-233), I usually tend to ignore variance with +200+ dogs unless it is extreme, and I thought 62 points qualified as "extreme". Note the Under also pointing to low scoring game giving big dog even more value, I am debuting Ryan Weber with a 104 rating (i.e., 4% worse than average pitcher), which is not terrible for a first time starter.

As for Twins, I rate Berrios and Kennedy about equally bad, Kennedy's 3.66 ERA is a mirage based on his 4.59 xFIP, he has been extremely lucky with a .261 BABIP allowed and an 84.1% strand rate. That made Royals overvalued road favorites at the time of my bet as model has Kansas City 54% (-117), although Twins have taken a ton of money since then and are no longer bettable at current market.

Very well, thanks for you time & insight. BOL on your wagers. Enjoy Labor Day.

VtecMouse · 09-05-16, 10:08 AM

What's up LT what's going on with this Yankee game today.. ? Over 8 seem ok.. or maybe taking em straight up better ? Thanks

jjgold · 09-05-16, 10:10 AM

Most arms are dead in major-league baseball so unders are not good plays right now

LT Profits · 09-05-16, 10:36 AM

Originally posted by VtecMouse

What's up LT what's going on with this Yankee game today.. ? Over 8 seem ok.. or maybe taking em straight up better ? Thanks

Both are too close to call for me, model has Yankees 56% (-127), 8.9

VtecMouse · 09-05-16, 10:42 AM

Thanks

pilebuck13 · 09-05-16, 10:52 AM

Wow Texas got hammered...I get it though....I like Toronto today...have a good day T

JJJ · 09-05-16, 02:19 PM

another two losses to start the day great work

LT Profits · 09-05-16, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by JJJ

another two losses to start the day great work

Huh? 1-1 start, although looks like 1-2 with Twins.

readytowinem · 09-05-16, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

Good Morning, care to explain the rationale of taking Atlanta vs. Max @ Home???? And the Twins with Berrios????? If you have time, if not I understand.

Please look at the YTD at the bottom...

JJJ · 09-05-16, 05:16 PM

ok even better 1-5 for today

p4$$ion · 09-05-16, 05:25 PM

thats why you gotta play team totals especially if you think that team is going to win. even if they dont win, at least you still got a chance to hit it on the TT.

lots of fools had the rangers S/U today but it looks like they might lose so it would've been better to have taken the 3.5 which they covered with ease.

if you want to recover, hit the TT on the indians at 4. have a nice day.