CK's Daily MLB Thread Leans for Wednesday 5/6/09

[cocknocker]

Well I think that getting away from home may be the best thing for the Cubs who have stunk up the joint recently and burned the pockets of their supporters. Mike Hampton to the rescue. Harden is due for a correction and the light hitting Astros will score 2 runs less than the Cubs.

Cubs-1.5 +105

The Pale Hose are ready to end their losing streak ith this home game. Beuhrle has given up a nasty 3 earned runs over the last 3 games and 22 innings. That is enough to create some doubt about Galarraga picking up the win with the Tigers in Comiskey. make no mistake about it these teams are rivals, and the wounded Pale Hose will muster up enough hitting and small ball to pull this one out. Nice price for a good pitcher.


Pale Hose-115



Ah yes, I know for a fact that Halladay can be faded on the road. ANd since the Angels are a playoff caliber team being made a home dog, I have to take a stab at these types of Crumbs. Angels+140 at home? Whatever. I'll be taking those crumbs if I am correct. The Blue Jays haven't even faced Ortega before. Advantage Angels.

Angels+140 Crumbs Play-O-The-Day


Added Play

Giants/Rockies under 9.5 BIG

[Biff Webster]

what do you think about over 10 in the rays/yankees game?

[jellobiafra]

CK I sense a big day out of you so I'm in full tail brother. Adding LAD RL -110 (does it really need an explanation?), the red hot Brewers -110, SF team total under 4.5 -115(burned me yesterday but I'm playing it until they go over twice in a row), and TOR RL -105

GL everybody.

[Chi_archie]

cubs regs should be ready to go after many of them got a day on the bench and rest

[kevindakota00]

what do u think about fading pavano tonight. even if he does decent, the sox bats can make up for it?

[cocknocker]

cubs regs should be ready to go after many of them got a day on the bench and rest

Yeah I think so too. If they win one they have the type of team that can go on a tear and pick up a couple of victories in a row. Chi, I am thinking of fading Halladay on the road again. He gives away incredible crumbs on the raod and has a sub .500 record on the road when favored by -150 or more. That's all I need.

[jellobiafra]

Advantage Angels.

Angels+140 Crumbs Play-O-The-Day

This is where you lose me and we have to part ways for today my friend. Best of luck though.

[Ringo]

What are youre thoughts on the brewers/reds game? Arroyo vs Parra in cinc.

[peterpan19]

plays for today:
nym -1 2x (maybe less)
atl -1 2x (maybe less)
chc-1 2x
Pit 1x
CWS 2x (might make it a 4x play)
SEA 1x

GL

[SlicWilly3]

This is the one thread I always check before making my selections. Other than a few people that pop in every so often to stir things up, this thread has a number of people that add a lot of quality thoughts and picks every day.

Just wanted to say thanks, and I really hope this continues for a long time.

Gotta love the PC picks Man these seem to hit at about 80% or so....

Anyways, I have been hot lately, and wanted to share my picks for today:

4 TEAM PARLAY: $68 to win $601
Cubs, KC/Seatt OV 10 1/2, Orlando +5 1/2 (bought a pt), NHL Pitt/Wash OV 5 1/2
These 4 picks I really love all 4......

STRAIGHT: $110 to win $100
Chicago White Sox....Buehrle is money at home and great value at -110

2 Team Parlay: $100 to win $236
Orlando +4 1/2 (bought 1/2) and Lakers -9 1/2 (bought 1/2)

2 Team Parlay: $100 to win $174
Pirates +1 1/2 and SF Giants +1 1/2 Both could win outright, but I'll take the 1 1/2 runs to be safe.

3 Team Parlay: $40 to win $$187
Diamondbacks +1 1/2 Indians +1 1/2 LA Angels +1 1/2 (Same as above)

Good luck everybody.....

I started my winning streak when I started buying pts in the NBA and playing the +1 1/2 lines in MLB.
Thanks to CK with the buying pts thing I now almost always have my Dog NBA teams +1/2 on an EVEN number, or MINUS a 1/2 on an ODD # if they are favored. And with MLB there is always so many 1 run games....This way when it's a 1 run game and you have the team +1 1/2 it doesn't even matter if they win. They lose, and you still win...Can't beat that.

[ragiche]

Not a good day for me yesterday.Played 2 games and loss 1 game which is my heavy bet(Cle 6x) and won the small one (Sf 3x).But as everyone says there is always tomorrow.So, as for my plays for tonight's game are as follows:

Sf RRL and ML (3x each)

Cin RL (3x)

Nyy RL (3x)

Sea ML (3x)

Flo RRL (3x) ML (1x)

Cle RRL (3x)

Chw RL (3x)

Chc RL (2x)

Cle/Bos O 10.5 (8x)


GL guys. Smack the books. And let us win those cash.

[cocknocker]

What are youre thoughts on the brewers/reds game? Arroyo vs Parra in cinc.

It's kind of hard to back a guy that has no wins on the season as well as 0-fer against the opposition, but since Arroyo beat down the Brewers only a little while ago 6-1, I think that the Brewers hitters will make adjustments, and keep it close. The movement indicates that the Brewers are the play. 65% of bettors are on the Reds, yet the line dropped from -118 to -110. Which tells me that this is anybody's game. It looks like all systems go on your play.

[cocknocker]

what do you think about over 10 in the rays/yankees game?

I actually like the 1st half (4.5 innings) over 5 (-105) in this game. These teams are underacheiving this year and the Yanks would like nothing better than to get a signature win in a series before A-Rod comes back.

[cocknocker]

This is where you lose me and we have to part ways for today my friend. Best of luck though.

It's okay jello. I like being the minority on my wagers. As stated, Halladay has a sub .500 record in games where he is favored by -150 or more on the road. I have to roll with the percentages. They are playing on a grass surface today and outdoors. Good luck to you with the Blue Birds. I can't fault you for taking them. It's just not in my DNA to take a -150 line on a baseball game.

[cocknocker]

what do u think about fading pavano tonight. even if he does decent, the sox bats can make up for it?

Pavano will get blasted out of the water. To avoid paying all of that juice though, I suggest shortening your bet down a bit and taking the Red Sox-1.5+105. Masterson is not worth that price tag. He has done absolutely nothing in his career to be a -200 pitcher. You can trust that. The Wahoos have a habit this year of defying those great odds. I am staying away from this one because of Pavano. If anyone else were pitching for the Wahoos I would have to go after the crumbs. That guy sucks

[jellobiafra]

It's just not in my DNA to take a -150 line on a baseball game.

Mine neither. That's why I took the RL. Either way, good luck and I'll see you on the flip side.

[solobass]

Yeah I think so too. If they win one they have the type of team that can go on a tear and pick up a couple of victories in a row. Chi, I am thinking of fading Halladay on the road again. He gives away incredible crumbs on the raod and has a sub .500 record on the road when favored by -150 or more. That's all I need.

agreed, good analysis

[shoebox]

You best not be passing up on those Indians Mr Crumb

Also,

Braves RL
Blue Jays RL

[cocknocker]

But Pavano sucks so bad, shoe...I just can't do it. He may end up getting lit up and be chased by the 4th inning if the Beaners break out the whuppin' sticks. I love my crumbs, but this guy is carpet bagger material and mediocre at best

[ragiche]

Thx,for those analysis on the cle/bos game ck.I've already played on the wahoos RRL. I know pavano is not a good pitcher but i also think that masterson is not a -190 type of pitcher.Both teams can hit though.So, i'm gonna add O 10.5 in case pavano be rough up to more than 7 runs we know that the indians can score.By the way the Over hits 11 out of 19 games played in bos,but the valuable part is the Over hits 5 out of 9 games(2 push) also played in bos during May. So, I think CK,I've found my large play for tonight's game.Thx again CK for your insights. My play have been updated. (see post # 11).

[peterpan19]

final card...scratched some plays...only going with the ones I feel reall good about:
NYM -1.5 (3x)
Santana will pitch like we all expect him to pitch...and the Mets should fin a way to score against Park here today...

CHC -1 (3x)
...Harden will bounce back plus all the good sluggers are back today for chicago...

CWS (3x)
...finally at home...BUEHRLE...

Pit (1x)
...duke is really good this year...and STL sucked against Phi...why not again PIT...they took 2 out of 4 earlier this year

GL

[TodaysAction]

It's worth saying, so I''ll do it, it's nice to be able to read this thread without the bullshit posts. Way to go people!

[TodaysAction]

final card...scratched some plays...only going with the ones I feel reall good about:
NYM -1 (3x)
Santana will pitch like we all expect him to pitch...and the Mets should fin a way to score against Park here today...

CHC -1 (3x)
...Harden will bounce back plus all the good sluggers are back today for chicago...

CWS (3x)
...finally at home...BUEHRLE...

Pit (1x)
...duke is really good this year...and STL sucked against Phi...why not again PIT...they took 2 out of 4 earlier this year

GL

What made you change your mind about SEA?

[cocknocker]

It's worth saying, so I''ll do it, it's nice to be able to read this thread without the bullshit posts. Way to go people!

Don't hold your breath though, T.A. You know who is not home from work yet, lol!

[TodaysAction]

Don't hold your breath though, T.A. You know who is not home from work yet, lol!

Ah, yes the ever so lovely 9 to 5er - forgot about that. In any case, it's nice to be clutter free. Why oh why do I keep wanting to hit 915 again today?

[danrman]

amen to clutter free so far.. i like the angels vs. halladay.. his next start is vs. the yankees

[repski]

I'm liking the RLM on
Rays
Col
Milwaukee

[peterpan19]

What made you change your mind about SEA?

I know two crap pitchers today...and I actually wanted to go with Silva as he has 1 win this year, but now I dont know anymore, normally I would fade both of them...KC is hot right now and Sea bullpen let me down yesterday...I still like SEA to get the win, but just not enough to pull the trigger...that said they will probably crush the Royals today and I will look like a total idiot

GL TA with your action today

[TodaysAction]

I know two crap pitchers today...and I actually wanted to go with Silva as he has 1 win this year, but now I dont know anymore, normally I would fade both of them...KC is hot right now and Sea bullpen let me down yesterday...I still like SEA to get the win, but just not enough to pull the trigger...that said they will probably crush the Royals today and I will look like a total idiot

GL TA with your action today

Thanks for your explanation. As you know I have one unit in for that game. I nearly went with a totals play for what that's worth but haven't as I'm waiting and watching the lines for certain "magic" numbers. If I get them good, if not not an issue as there's more games tomorrow.

Continued success to you this season.

[chucksmith]

The Braves are putting a lot of emphasis on their 2 game set at Fla, which is followed by 3 at PHI and 3 at NYM. At 11-15, they could find themselves buried if they cant turn things around.

I dont know much about Taylor from FLA but Lowe at -138 is not too steep. This is the reason they brought him in, to be their stopper and #1 guy.

Is 138 too much to lay in this spot? Feedback welcomed.

[moneyline]

Even when I'm not here, CK is thinking about me. That kid has me directly in his head. Your Angels pick is lacking, son ... they lose by 2+ ... you've had 2 subpar days so I guess, by Dodgers at home logic, you're bound to have a good day sooner or later ... and they are bound to lose.

Tonight the Dodgers lose at home for the first time. And tonight you have your 3rd crap night in a row. Oh, well, ce la vie.

[cocknocker]

Getting rid of the Mariners/Royals over 10, as it din't have the kind of movement that I had anticipated. I like the Giants/Colorado under 9.5. Randy Johnson has pitched a little better this year, and at the same time the G-Men haven't hit the ball well ALL year. So I am concentrating my money on this one and hitting it a little bit bigger than the others.

Giants/Rockies under 9.5 BIG

[cocknocker]

Ah, yes the ever so lovely 9 to 5er - forgot about that. In any case, it's nice to be clutter free. Why oh why do I keep wanting to hit 915 again today?

Spoke too soon. He's back to stir the pot

[Dexter]

guys - we have one open spot in the tourney that will fill danrmans spot. let me know if you want in via pm

[showtime2000]

Puck plays tonight,

Wash/Pit under 5.5
Bos/Car over 5
Carolina ML

Fun play, Was/Pit game goes to OT +330
As evryone is on Pittsburgh tonight, they will keep everyone on the edge of their seats and utimately win it in OT. Last 3 of 4 games in Pit have been decided by 1 goal.


GLA