DFoster Wednesday Picks/Leans 105-87-3, +35.90 units

[DFoster]

I took a look at the lines tonight before heading to the sack...

Played these because they look solid before they move in the morning...just a test since I've never played night lines as I never had time.

ARI/SD over 7.5 +112 --- 1.5 units
ATL ML -136 --- 1.5 units
TOR RL +102 --- 1.5 units

If I cap these games and something sticks out, I may reverse these tomorrow but as of now these look like solid lines that could be used as pure profit sometime tomorrow...then again, I could be wrong. We shall see.

[DFoster]

Well the test was of no real value. All the lines are within +-3 of what I put money on last night. I should start posting plays in the next hour or so.

[DFoster]

I countered my initial ATL post on matchbook, so it's currently a no play. I did the same to the SD/ARI play until an umpire is released...the under trends in that game are huge.

So...

TOR -1.5 RL +100 --- 1.5 units

Halladay vs Ortega. I am going to continue to fade Ortega. Toronto has been solid and I expect them to put up quite a few runs on the young starter.

LAD -1.5 RL +109 --- 2 units

I went against the Dodgers yesterday but won't make that mistake today. The matchup favors the Dodgers in a big way and I expect them to beat them by a large margin today.

CHW ML -111 --- 1.5 units

Buehrle has great career numbers against DET and the Sox have won all 5 games Buerhle has started. Among other things, I like this match up even though the Sox are 0-4 in their last 4.

More on the way

[DFoster]

CHW/DET under 9 +105 --- 2 units

Buerhle has been solid, Gallarraga has been solid and neither offense is lighting up the score board. I expect a battle here that under under 9.

[DFoster]

CIN ML -105 --- 2 units

The Reds are winning when Arroyo takes the mound and opposite can be said for the Brewers and Parra. The Reds are 4-1 when Arroyo pitches while the Brew Crew has gone 0-5 when Parra starts. Parra hasn't had the benefit of hardly any run support and as I've seen in the past, that can be a trend that continues. I am leaning toward the under here but will wait on the umpire before making a full decision.

[jellobiafra]

Going against you on the Reds. Milwaukee's hot right now and Parra is do for a win. Arroyo has been getting W's despite his performances. CIN struggles versus lefties. Honestly, this was the one of two plays that jumped off the board at me as good values. This one and the KC/SEA over.

[DFoster]

Going against you on the Reds. Milwaukee's hot right now and Parra is do for a win. Arroyo has been getting W's despite his performances. CIN struggles versus lefties. Honestly, this was the one of two plays that jumped off the board at me as good values. This one and the KC/SEA over.

First, good luck with your bets tonight. The Reds had a solid road trip and outscored opponents 27-11 with a 1.41 ERA while winning four of its last six contests - all the victories coming by shutout. So I'd say that's pretty hot. Parra is giving up close to 1.6 base runners an inning and while the Brewers are pretty hot themselves, the Reds have hit Parra very well in his career. Arroyo is a competitor and with the rest of the staff throwing well, I think he steps up to do the same tonight.

There will be games we're on different sides, but at least one of us cashes

[alukk]

giants ml for me

[DFoster]

giants ml for me

Not a bad pick but I'm sitting it out. The Rockies have killed lefty starters as Coors this year. Hope you cash, good luck!

[themajormt]

DFOST: Just wanted to say thanks for the useful, no BS information and insight that your provide. Regardless of your record the info and insight is very useful. I hope you keep up the good work!

[DFoster]

DFOST: Just wanted to say thanks for the useful, no BS information and insight that your provide. Regardless of your record the info and insight is very useful. I hope you keep up the good work!

Thanks. I appreciate the compliment

[DFoster]

MIN ML -114 --- 2 units

I have backed Slowey on every start (I think) and I can't stop here against Hendrickson. I've said it before, but I'm a Slowey believer.

[DFoster]

Leans currently...waiting for umpires:

Texas TT over 4.5
Tor TT over 5
Texas 5 inning ML
PHI TT over 3.5

[DFoster]

I went ahead and locked in a couple of wagers for the evening. If I see that a BIG under ump is behind the plate, I may hedge but it would have to be a huge under ump as I feel pretty good about the following:

TEX TT over 4.5 +104 --- 2 units

TX offense can hit and Griese is a very low tier starter...the Rangers haven't scored less than 5 runs during their 4 game streak.

TEX 1st 5 innings +113 --- 1.5 units

TX is hot and OAK is not...I prefer taking the terrible TX bullpen out of it, especially when the A's bullpen is one of the top bullpens in the game currently. I'm looking for the Rangers to chase this converted reliever by the end of the 5th inning.

TOR TT over 5 -101 --- 2 units

Ortega isn't doing well and I see more of the same tonight. With the Jays scoring 5 or more runs in 6 of their last 8 games...I love the Jays to put up some runs against a triple-A caliber starter.

[DFoster]

Tonight's current card:

TOR -1.5 RL +100 --- 1.5 units
LAD -1.5 RL +109 --- 2 units
CHW ML -111 --- 1.5 units
CHW/DET under 9 +105 --- 2 units
CIN ML -105 --- 2 units
MIN ML -114 --- 2 units
TEX TT over 4.5 +104 --- 2 units
TEX 1st 5 innings +113 --- 1.5 units
TOR TT over 5 -101 --- 2 units

I don't expect to make any more plays, however, if I see a great umpire paired with a nice looking over/under, I may add something.

[DFoster]

Added:

CHC ML -135 --- 1.5 units
CHC RL +121 --- 1.0 units

I really think Harden brings his A game tonight. The Cubs have been on a roll until Lincecum stopped them in their last game. The Cubs have their lineup back against a weak Houston squad. The Cubs are solid against lefties and Hampton has been anything but solid. Pair his struggles with a completely worn down bullpen and you have a nice cocktail of Cub succes...

[DFoster]

MIN ML -114 --- 2 units

I have backed Slowey on every start (I think) and I can't stop here against Hendrickson. I've said it before, but I'm a Slowey believer.

I'm increasingly not liking this pick. I like Slowey but the "smart money" is going against the Twins. In addition to that, the home plate ump is Brian "home team win 67% of the time" Knight...

I am reducing my personal play to 1 unit rather than 2 here.

[DFoster]

Adding:

CIN TT over 4.5 +115 --- 2 units

This is an ump play. Tim McClelland is an over guy and I was leaning over for the Reds anyway. Add those two together and I'll take the team over as a dog here.

[DFoster]

Full card...about to run out of time on capping so I doubt I'll be adding anything else

TOR -1.5 RL +100 --- 1.5 units
LAD -1.5 RL +109 --- 2 units
CHW ML -111 --- 1.5 units
CHW/DET under 9 +105 --- 2 units
CIN ML -105 --- 2 units
MIN ML -114 --- 2 units
TEX TT over 4.5 +104 --- 2 units
TEX 1st 5 innings +113 --- 1.5 units
TOR TT over 5 -101 --- 2 units
CHC ML -135 --- 1.5 units
CHC RL +121 --- 1.0 units
CIN TT over 4.5 +115 --- 2 units

[DFoster]

I had this many plays when I had a terrible off night...so this is more of a superstition add but one I feel confident in after seeing the ump:

NYY TT over 5 -120 --- 1 unit

[DFoster]

Parlay of the day:

CHC RL, CHW ML, TOR ML, TEX/OAK over 9

.5 units to win 5.91 units

[ebbearsfb1]

wish i would of seen that earlier on the twins, additionally, not sure y everyone loves slowley so much yea hes 4-0 but his era is in the 5's....

[thegenix]

What is going on with Cincy right now?

[DFoster]

What is going on with Cincy right now?

No idea...I guess things like that happen, but it always seems to be when I bet on them.

[ebbearsfb1]

i know what u mean dfoster

[DFoster]

Wily Taveras is terrible...

[waco66]

lol, i followed you on the ATL game then i checked your thread again and saw you took it off. Luckily it paid off though.

GOod luck on the texas pick since im on that aswell! lets get em!

[cohen59]

PARLAY...... lookin good buddy!!

[cohen59]

Big inning for texas here we go....

[DFoster]

TOR -1.5 RL +100 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.50
LAD -1.5 RL +109 --- 2 units - WIN +2.18
CHW ML -111 --- 1.5 units - PPD
CHW/DET under 9 +105 --- 2 units - PPD
CIN ML -105 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
MIN ML -114 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
TEX TT over 4.5 +104 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
TEX 1st 5 innings +113 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.70
NYY TT over 5 -120 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
TOR TT over 5 -101 --- 2 units - WIN +1.98
CHC ML -135 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.11
CHC RL +121 --- 1.0 units - WIN +1.21
CIN TT over 4.5 +115 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00

5-5 ,+1.68
0-1, -.5 on parlays

[cohen59]

TOR -1.5 RL +100 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.50
LAD -1.5 RL +109 --- 2 units - WIN +2.18
CHW ML -111 --- 1.5 units - PPD
CHW/DET under 9 +105 --- 2 units - PPD
CIN ML -105 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
MIN ML -114 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
TEX TT over 4.5 +104 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
TEX 1st 5 innings +113 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.70
NYY TT over 5 -120 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
TOR TT over 5 -101 --- 2 units - WIN +1.98
CHC ML -135 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.11
CHC RL +121 --- 1.0 units - WIN +1.21
CIN TT over 4.5 +115 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00

5-5 ,+1.68
0-1, -.5 on parlays

Great job yesterday DF sorry i got excited when it was 3 to 2 in the fourth i thought your parlay was gonna hit and i have been tailing your picks keep up the great work!!

[theplagy]

I had a parlay 5 for .5 unit

KC-1.5, TOR-1.5, LA 1st quarter, Celts 1stquarter, and lastly NYY-1.5....

why in the world did i pick NYY , can someone tell me?