MLB - Tuesday, 8/23/16

Sam Odom · 08-23-16, 07:59 AM

Thanks

GL

TxAaron · 08-23-16, 08:06 AM

With you on Tigers/Twins o9.5

Large play for me.

LT Profits · 08-23-16, 08:21 AM

60%ers:

Baltimore 61% (-156)
White Sox 62% (-163)
St. Louis 61% (-156)
Cubs 65% (-186)

There is perceived value on San Diego but I am resisting as of now.

exlusive123 · 08-23-16, 10:16 AM

Bookmaker price....

8/23/2016 7:47:32 AM

Colorado Rockies - J Gray @ Milwaukee Brewers - C Anderson

-124

+114

Bookmaker was +120 at 10pm last night though. Does Bookmaker have a reduced juice price too? If I could just chop 5 to 7c off of or on to every bet I make my ROI would skyrocket. Someone should keep track of units won or lost at prices that are available to bet instead of prices nobody can play. It would make a huge difference over a season. I'm on Bost and Rockies today, don't like seeing your opposite. Oh well GL

LT Profits · 08-23-16, 10:39 AM

Originally posted by exlusive123

Bookmaker price....

8/23/2016 7:47:32 AM

Colorado Rockies - J Gray @ Milwaukee Brewers - C Anderson

-124

+114

Bookmaker was +120 at 10pm last night though. Does Bookmaker have a reduced juice price too? If I could just chop 5 to 7c off of or on to every bet I make my ROI would skyrocket. Someone should keep track of units won or lost at prices that are available to bet instead of prices nobody can play. It would make a huge difference over a season. I'm on Bost and Rockies today, don't like seeing your opposite. Oh well GL

Bookmaker WENT TO +114 from +120 at 7:47, my bet was accepted at 7:44. So line literally changed in the few minutes within betting it and posting it. I am very diligent in posting ASAP after betting something, but when a line changes during the few minutes in between, there is nothing I can do.

KVB · 08-23-16, 10:40 AM

The Bookmaker line fluctuated a bit according to my information. This morning, Bookmaker had the Brewers at +120.

A quick view of the SBR odds page (which I can't always verify as accurate) says the line bounced off of 120 a couple of times.

If you need that extra 5 to 7 cents off or on to the bets, consider the overnight lines, and be ahead of the curve.

It is reasonable to conclude that when LT was shopping for lines early this morning that +120 was available. I saw what appeared to be trades going off at +120 a couple of times. Even if they weren't real trades, the line was still available.

And as early as LT's original post came, it was certainly available.

LT Profits · 08-23-16, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by KVB

The Bookmaker line fluctuated a bit according to my information. This morning, Bookmaker had the Brewers at +120.

A quick view of the SBR odds page (which I can't always verify as accurate) says the line bounced off of 120 a couple of times.

If you need that extra 5 to 7 cents off or on to the bets, consider the overnight lines, and be ahead of the curve.

It is reasonable to conclude that when LT was shopping for lines early this morning that +120 was available. I saw what appeared to be trades going off at +120 a couple of times. Even if they weren't real trades, the line was still available.

And as early as LT's original post came, it was certainly available.

Bottom line is timestamp reads 7:44, so take it from there at any line service of your choosing.

You guys have to remember my process, first I bet all the plays then I write up the plays all at once. So there will always be few minutes lag. Alternative would be to post after every single play, but that gets too clunky.

Conqueror · 08-23-16, 11:14 AM

LT,

I like the Under in the Cubs/Padres game even with Arrieta's rece struggles. What do you think?

LT Profits · 08-23-16, 11:40 AM

2 MLB Additions

5 MLB Plays Tuesday

Pirates +100 (Heritage)
Angels +128 (Heritage)
Rays -112 (Heritage)
Brewers +120 (Bookmaker)
Tigers / Twins OVER 9.5 +102 (5 Dimes)

LT Profits · 08-23-16, 11:45 AM

Originally posted by Conqueror

LT,

I like the Under in the Cubs/Padres game even with Arrieta's rece struggles. What do you think?

Model has EXACTLY 8.0, so don't know what to tell you.

Conqueror · 08-23-16, 12:11 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Model has EXACTLY 8.0, so don't know what to tell you.

Thanks.

MMA_Oracle · 08-23-16, 01:57 PM

Thoughts on the Royals? also, the total for SF/LAD? thanks man, good luck

exlusive123 · 08-23-16, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by KVB

The Bookmaker line fluctuated a bit according to my information. This morning, Bookmaker had the Brewers at +120.

A quick view of the SBR odds page (which I can't always verify as accurate) says the line bounced off of 120 a couple of times.

If you need that extra 5 to 7 cents off or on to the bets, consider the overnight lines, and be ahead of the curve.

It is reasonable to conclude that when LT was shopping for lines early this morning that +120 was available. I saw what appeared to be trades going off at +120 a couple of times. Even if they weren't real trades, the line was still available.

And as early as LT's original post came, it was certainly available.

I'm just making a point. Unless your bet size is 1k or less you can't bet those prices. Most of the time LT posts a number that is 5 to 7c different than the actual market. Anyone following his plays will have significantly different results than the unit results he is posting

funnyb25 · 08-23-16, 03:25 PM

He got very bad lines on angels and pirates though

eddycash · 08-23-16, 03:45 PM

Any thought on Dodgers?

MMA_Oracle · 08-23-16, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by eddycash

Any thought on Dodgers?

for what it's worth, I like the dodgers

LT Profits · 08-23-16, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by MMA_Oracle

Thoughts on the Royals? also, the total for SF/LAD? thanks man, good luck

I have Royals/Marlins even at +100 each, so see if KC rises a few more cents.

Nothing to see with SF/LAD total, I get 6.9

LT Profits · 08-23-16, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by eddycash

Any thought on Dodgers?

I get Dodgers 51% (-104), too close unless Mad Bum takes some more money.

LT Profits · 08-23-16, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by funnyb25

He got very bad lines on angels and pirates though

My great lines should be my first games of the day, before the overnights come down.

funnyb25 · 08-23-16, 04:01 PM

So Pirates being offered at +117 ok?

LT Profits · 08-23-16, 04:44 PM

Originally posted by funnyb25

So Pirates being offered at +117 ok?

I don't get all the confidence in Musgrove as a road favorite. Oh well.

Bcatswin · 08-23-16, 04:49 PM

Think Reds game is an easy over.

funnyb25 · 08-23-16, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I don't get all the confidence in Musgrove as a road favorite. Oh well.

Was Starling Marte OUT when you wagered it at +100?

LT Profits · 08-23-16, 04:59 PM

1 Last MLB Addition

6 MLB Plays Tuesday

Pirates +100 (Heritage)
Angels +128 (Heritage)
Rays -112 (Heritage)
Brewers +120 (Bookmaker)
Twins +108 (Heritage)
Tigers / Twins OVER 9.5 +102 (5 Dimes)

Redscot · 08-23-16, 05:04 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I don't get all the confidence in Musgrove as a road favorite. Oh well.

Wrc+ over last 2 weeks 'Stros 137, 'Rats 92
Bp's Siera last 2 weeks 'Stros 3.13, 'Rats 3.93
Siera Musgrove 3.33 Nova 4.01

Musgrove 9% FB tendency more than Nova mitigated by Pirates stadium being 3rd highest in HR supresssion.

Mojo - Houston 4 game Win streak/ Pitt 4 game Lose streak

Not too surprised personally, but definite risk involved with Musgrove still being a somewhat unknown commodity.

No coincidences · 08-23-16, 05:58 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Wrc+ over last 2 weeks 'Stros 137, 'Rats 92
Bp's Siera last 2 weeks 'Stros 3.13, 'Rats 3.93
Siera Musgrove 3.33 Nova 4.01

Musgrove 9% FB tendency more than Nova mitigated by Pirates stadium being 3rd highest in HR supresssion.

Mojo - Houston 4 game Win streak/ Pitt 4 game Lose streak

Not too surprised personally, but definite risk involved with Musgrove still being a somewhat unknown commodity.

Good to see you checking in, Red.

Biff41 · 08-23-16, 06:07 PM

Team I like tonite is Toronto BJ's. Angels pitcher Skaggs is still warming up. Toronto has good record -155 morning line may be better now.

Redscot · 08-23-16, 06:20 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Good to see you checking in, Red.

Thanks NoCo, you know I got love for you baby.

BTW, my post in no way a slight on LT. I really dig his approach and moreso his persona....tough to gauge people over a keyboard but my money is on him as a very solid individual and always root for him.

I value "water tends to find it's level" but find in MLB you need a recalculation in various points of the season that make it so very difficult to have a model that is always relevant. The metrics provided in this day and age are incredible for overriding individual numbers, but have found that they are better suited to team numbers in smaller chunks. Teams DO have an ebb and flow.

Rich Boy · 08-23-16, 06:27 PM

Musgrove getting hammered already 6 hits to start the game

tradeout · 08-23-16, 07:10 PM

Originally posted by Rich Boy

Musgrove getting hammered already 6 hits to start the game

wait for an epic comeback

mikefan1034 · 08-23-16, 08:00 PM

You know the system is broken when he's taking the Angels against the blue jays and only getting +128 lmao

slayer14 · 08-23-16, 08:09 PM

There is no bloody system the man just makes picks

LT Profits · 08-23-16, 08:57 PM

It's a MODEL, not a "system". Big difference.

No coincidences · 08-23-16, 09:22 PM

Rays might have the worst offense of all time.