MLB - Monday, 8/22/16

[LT Profits]

3 MLB Plays Monday

Dodgers -120 (Heritage)
Nationals -121 (Heritage)
Red Sox / Rays UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)


YTD: 358-373-19, -8.03

[44 Mag]

Odd to see you laying two in the -120 range ???

[44 Mag]

Other than the Cubs & Cleveland, nobody else seems worthy of 60%, to me anyway ???

[exlusive123]

Dodgers -120 (Heritage)
Nationals -121 (Heritage)
Red Sox / Rays UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)


YTD: 358-373-19, -8.03[/QUOTE]

I like LAD too, I wish I had a book that would give me an 8c discount to the real market. Looks like Heritage was using -125 all morning. How would you get -21?

[exlusive123]

Sorry -120, even better

[Stackzilla]

Thanks for both of those unders yesterday. BOL today

[LT Profits]

Sorry -120, even better

Overnight 4-cent lines before 8:00am

It was while regular line was -123

[LT Profits]

FYI, I would NOT bet Dodgers at current market as I get 59% (-144)

[LT Profits]

Odd to see you laying two in the -120 range ???

I have 59% (-144) for both games. Looks like market is taking a dump on my head with Nationals

[LT Profits]

Other than the Cubs & Cleveland, nobody else seems worthy of 60%, to me anyway ???

I get "only" 59% for Cleveland (seems to be popular % today) and you missed one.

[Brooklyn Dick]

Strasberg was bombarded his last two starts, most likely the reason for the short line.

[LT Profits]

60%ers:

Pittsburgh 62% (-163)
Cubs 67% (-203)

[exlusive123]

So your saying you played overnight? I had an account last year at Heritage, 2k a game NBA. I bet some totals that moved my way, not only did they not give me a discount, they threw me out, they said they weren't interested in taking sharp action. I think a more accurate reflection on your win losses would be using a market that people can actually bet, like Pinnacle. The prices you post are not a fair indication of what one's results would be if they wanted to follow you, assuming thats the agenda to post your plays, but it's your show. Your info is helpful, thank you

[44 Mag]

I get "only" 59% for Cleveland (seems to be popular % today) and you missed one.

Wash.???

[RavensFan2k3]

FYI, I would NOT bet Dodgers at current market as I get 59% (-144)

So you do you think they lose now or something?

[LT Profits]

So your saying you played overnight? I had an account last year at Heritage, 2k a game NBA. I bet some totals that moved my way, not only did they not give me a discount, they threw me out, they said they weren't interested in taking sharp action. I think a more accurate reflection on your win losses would be using a market that people can actually bet, like Pinnacle. The prices you post are not a fair indication of what one's results would be if they wanted to follow you, assuming thats the agenda to post your plays, but it's your show. Your info is helpful, thank you

No, I played a few minutes before I posted like I usually do. Overnights are up until 8:00am ET. And I post plays at the prices I get because I am tracking MY record.

[LT Profits]

So you do you think they lose now or something?

No, I am saying I would pass on game right now. Would want no higher than -129, which probably won't happen again.

[Stackzilla]

Wash.???

Tough game, hot bats and a pitcher needing to bounce back or a young pitcher who just got lit up by hot bats and hitters who may or may not show up. I'm getting Wash -113 I might wait til they get +

[LT Profits]

Wash.???

Post 12, Pitt

[LT Profits]

So your saying you played overnight? I had an account last year at Heritage, 2k a game NBA. I bet some totals that moved my way, not only did they not give me a discount, they threw me out, they said they weren't interested in taking sharp action. I think a more accurate reflection on your win losses would be using a market that people can actually bet, like Pinnacle. The prices you post are not a fair indication of what one's results would be if they wanted to follow you, assuming thats the agenda to post your plays, but it's your show. Your info is helpful, thank you

I am 99% sure MLB is the only sport where Heritage has two line sets, 4-cent overnights and then standard line depending on your option (I have middle -105 across the board option, as opposed to top cash back option, which is -108 for sides only). NBA and all other major sports have same lineset based on your option 24/7

[Nateboogy]

I just don't really get Pittsburgh being in the 60% tbh. Where is it that they have an edge over the Astros? I assume model has Fister regressing second half.

[RavensFan2k3]

No, I am saying I would pass on game right now. Would want no higher than -129, which probably won't happen again.

How come?

[juicername]

How come?

15k posts and you're seriously asking that question?

[LT Profits]

I just don't really get Pittsburgh being in the 60% tbh. Where is it that they have an edge over the Astros? I assume model has Fister regressing second half.

Fister is not that good any more, only 95 strikeouts vs. 49 walks in 146 innings, so yes, the 3.76 ERA has nowhere to go but up. Also, model LOVES Taillon, which is not surprising given the 52/9 K/BB.

[RavensFan2k3]

15k posts and you're seriously asking that question?

Maybe the question would be better suited for a poster with 443 posts

[juicername]

Maybe the question would be better suited for a poster with 443 posts

Just thought you would have picked up a thing or two about gambling during your time here. Is it all about which team will win when you make a bet? What if I offered you +1000 on a team that you thought had 49% chance to win the game, then you would pass on that bet because they would lose more often than they win?

[GzaTheGenius]

wtf do these lines mean??
MLB NETWORK
Aug 22 NATIONALS (WASH) S STRASBURG -R
-6.00
o8½-105
-1½+140
7:05pm ORIOLES (BALT) D BUNDY -R
5.00
u8½-115
+1½-160

[RavensFan2k3]

Just thought you would have picked up a thing or two about gambling during your time here. Is it all about which team will win when you make a bet? What if I offered you +1000 on a team that you thought had 49% chance to win the game, then you would pass on that bet because they would lose more often than they win?

Not necessarily, but that also isn't a very realistic scenario nor does it compare to the one we're talking about. I've learned alot, and earned even more. So I think I know a thing a two, but thanks for your help

[juicername]

Not necessarily, but that also isn't a very realistic scenario nor does it compare to the one we're talking about. I've learned alot, and earned even more. So I think I know a thing a two, but thanks for your help

I came across as an asshat there and for that I apologize.

My example was obviously exaggerated, but the point is still valid IMO. It's not that weird that he would bet a team at -120 but not at -144 is it? When you choose your bets you must surely have similar thresholds as well no?

Just because LT does not think there's value at a -144 favorite does not mean that he thinks that team will lose all of a sudden (as you asked), just that he thinks it will win less than 59% of the time and therefor making the bet a losing proposition as to risk/reward.

[RavensFan2k3]

I came across as an asshat there and for that I apologize.

My example was obviously exaggerated, but the point is still valid IMO. It's not that weird that he would bet a team at -120 but not at -144 is it? When you choose your bets you must surely have similar thresholds as well no?

Just because LT does not think there's value at a -144 favorite does not mean that he thinks that team will lose all of a sudden (as you asked), just that he thinks it will win less than 59% of the time and therefor making the bet a losing proposition as to risk/reward.

My original question to LT wasn't fully a serious one, I always give him a hard time about value vs. none value, when it comes to a play being a winner regardless. He knows I'm just messing with him as I always have. I wouldn't check his thread daily if I didn't respect his opinions.

and yes, I do have thresholds when I make my bets. They just differ from his, again why I give him a hard time sometimes, but its all in good nature. Or atleast I hope he realizes it is lol

[juicername]

My original question to LT wasn't fully a serious one, I always give him a hard time about value vs. none value, when it comes to a play being a winner regardless. He knows I'm just messing with him as I always have. I wouldn't check his thread daily if I didn't respect his opinions.

and yes, I do have thresholds when I make my bets. They just differ from his, again why I give him a hard time sometimes, but its all in good nature. Or atleast I hope he realizes it is lol

Oh, my bad then and I apologize again, I was completely out of line here.
I don't always agree with LT's bets either (for better and for worse) so we got that in common .

[MMA_Oracle]

does anyone know what the record would be for someone who was fading LT all year? assuming they waited until LT posted his pics in order to bet. not saying this to be a d!ck or rub it in LT's face, just curious

[Stackzilla]

does anyone know what the record would be for someone who was fading LT all year? assuming they waited until LT posted his pics in order to bet. not saying this to be a d!ck or rub it in LT's face, just curious

Well since most of his plays are +$ the juice would kill any profit you might get obviously not today but if you look back his plays are always close to even $

[No coincidences]

does anyone know what the record would be for someone who was fading LT all year? assuming they waited until LT posted his pics in order to bet. not saying this to be a d!ck or rub it in LT's face, just curious

Probably next to nothing, at best.

[LT Profits]

does anyone know what the record would be for someone who was fading LT all year? assuming they waited until LT posted his pics in order to bet. not saying this to be a d!ck or rub it in LT's face, just curious

You would be down more than I am because I am beating the vig. Assuming dimelines, a 50/50 capper would be -18.25 after 730 plays.