MLB - Friday, 8/5/16

Kramerico · 08-05-16, 06:56 AM

Big card tonight, gl sir.

44 Mag · 08-05-16, 07:00 AM

LT, how about a little feedback on the Cinn game tonight???

LT Profits · 08-05-16, 07:12 AM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

LT, how about a little feedback on the Cinn game tonight???

Pittsburgh is a 60%er. Taillon rates above average (by about 5%), DeSclafini is a tad below average by about 3%, Pirates with a big edge in offense especially when looking at H/A and a decent edge in bullpen.

LT Profits · 08-05-16, 07:16 AM

60%ers:

Pittsburgh 62% (-163)
Houston 66% (-194)
St. Louis 72% (-257)
Cubs 65% (-186)
Seattle 65% (-186)

Rich Boy · 08-05-16, 07:16 AM

GL today LT

GreatWallofTrump · 08-05-16, 07:17 AM

Cin is a bad road team.

44 Mag · 08-05-16, 07:24 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Pittsburgh is a 60%er. Taillon rates above average (by about 5%), DeSclafini is a tad below average by about 3%, Pirates with a big edge in offense especially when looking at H/A and a decent edge in bullpen.

Thanks Boss .

Antibet · 08-05-16, 07:33 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Pittsburgh is a 60%er.

And all sheep in this thread are 999ers

Stackzilla · 08-05-16, 08:51 AM

Anyone got any insight on why Hou is a fav vs Texas? I think Keuchel's gonna get shelled Tex .302 team avg vs him and Hou bullpen blows games all the time. Perez is on fire the most he's pitched was 107 in 7in recently he's stayed under 90 going 5-7. Thanks ahead of time.

exlusive123 · 08-05-16, 08:58 AM

I have a big play on Houst fwiw

Stackzilla · 08-05-16, 08:58 AM

Originally posted by GreatWallofTrump

Cin is a bad road team.

Yea that is true but they've beaten Chicago, Texas, and San Fran when DeSclafani pitches those are some of the toughest stadiums to play. Their loses (edit) when he pitches are by 1 run and the loses are no decisions.

HeeluvaGuy · 08-05-16, 08:58 AM

What is driving the Marlins play? I get that de la Rosa is awful (especially at home), but Phelps is making his first start of the season and (I've read) is on a pitch count (70-75 pitches). In his previous two starts at Coors he allowed 11 runs on 9.2 innings pitched. Game seems like a coin flip to me with a lot of runs likely being scored. Are you using Phelps' numbers as a reliever for this one?

Stackzilla · 08-05-16, 09:06 AM

Originally posted by exlusive123

I have a big play on Houst fwiw

Yea but why? Screw it I'm getting +150 on Tex. With you on Mia LT bol today got it +101 before u posted

Waterstpub87 · 08-05-16, 10:06 AM

No totals today LT? I am surprised you are not the padres, as we often have similar plays. I got padres yesterday at 111.

LT Profits · 08-05-16, 10:47 AM

Originally posted by Stackzilla

Anyone got any insight on why Hou is a fav vs Texas? I think Keuchel's gonna get shelled Tex .302 team avg vs him and Hou bullpen blows games all the time. Perez is on fire the most he's pitched was 107 in 7in recently he's stayed under 90 going 5-7. Thanks ahead of time.

Of course Houston is going to be favored at home, and as you see, I actually have them undervalued at 66% (-194). This looks like a pitching mismatch, Keuchel had come around nicely before the one bad start in Detroit (which can happen to anyone), his 3.62 xFIP is more than a run lower than his ERA. Perez is a prime fade the rest of the year and his regression had begun before catching a slumping Royals team at home.

LT Profits · 08-05-16, 10:53 AM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

What is driving the Marlins play? I get that de la Rosa is awful (especially at home), but Phelps is making his first start of the season and (I've read) is on a pitch count (70-75 pitches). In his previous two starts at Coors he allowed 11 runs on 9.2 innings pitched. Game seems like a coin flip to me with a lot of runs likely being scored. Are you using Phelps' numbers as a reliever for this one?

Phelps has plenty experience as a starter and his historical numbers are incorporated in until he has like 5 starts. He is averaging more than 11 strikeouts per nine innings out of the pen, the 75-pitch limit could be a minor blessing as he may not need to pace himself too much. And although both bullpens are below average, Miami grades out slightly better.

LT Profits · 08-05-16, 10:57 AM

Originally posted by Waterstpub87

No totals today LT? I am surprised you are not the padres, as we often have similar plays. I got padres yesterday at 111.

The day is young.

And model likes Phillies over Padres at 54% (-117), which is more of an indictment of Friedrich.

HeeluvaGuy · 08-05-16, 11:08 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Phelps has plenty experience as a starter and his historical numbers are incorporated in until he has like 5 starts. He is averaging more than 11 strikeouts per nine innings out of the pen, the 75-pitch limit could be a minor blessing as he may not need to pace himself too much. And although both bullpens are below average, Miami grades out slightly better.

Interesting article on his move from the pen: http://www.fishstripes.com/2016/8/4/...ikeouts-whiffs

I like the over here. No opinion on the side. Was just curious what your reasoning was. What total do you have for this one?

Stackzilla · 08-05-16, 11:10 AM

thanks for the reply and the info LT , there's just too many factors for me to not play Texas outside of what I mentioned. BOL

LT Profits · 08-05-16, 11:30 AM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

Interesting article on his move from the pen: http://www.fishstripes.com/2016/8/4/...ikeouts-whiffs

I like the over here. No opinion on the side. Was just curious what your reasoning was. What total do you have for this one?

11.3, too close for me.

rollie_t651 · 08-05-16, 11:34 AM

Good luck LT

LT Profits · 08-05-16, 11:35 AM

1 MLB Addition

6 MLB Plays Friday

Giants +131(5 Dimes)
Yankees -104 (Heritage)
Mets +109 (Heritage)
Rangers / Astros UNDER 8.5 -120 (5 Dimes)
Marlins -106 (Bookmaker)
Dodgers -112 (Heritage)

kdcasady · 08-05-16, 11:35 AM

Thoughts on tigers under 7.5?

LT Profits · 08-05-16, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by kdcasady

Thoughts on tigers under 7.5?

Certainly lean that way at 6.6, but I don't like the RLM.

funnyb25 · 08-05-16, 12:32 PM

Is this still the same Martin Perez guy you rated one of the worst in the majors? Do you just see this being 7-1 astros?

LT Profits · 08-05-16, 01:05 PM

Originally posted by funnyb25

Is this still the same Martin Perez guy you rated one of the worst in the majors? Do you just see this being 7-1 astros?

Yes. And 5-2 will do.

getlucky2win · 08-05-16, 01:05 PM

What sites do you look at for Rlm

funnyb25 · 08-05-16, 01:08 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Yes. And 5-2 will do.

RL not enough value for you? You obviously see this being a comfortable Astros win..

LT Profits · 08-05-16, 01:19 PM

Originally posted by getlucky2win

What sites do you look at for Rlm

Sports Options

LT Profits · 08-05-16, 01:21 PM

Originally posted by funnyb25

RL not enough value for you?

No. I almost never play home team run lines at less than +150ish

funnyb25 · 08-05-16, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

No. I almost never play home team run lines at less than +150ish

Ya, losing that half inning bothers me too...BOL today

kdcasady · 08-05-16, 02:12 PM

Is there a reason you stay away from team totals? Seems to be good value there at times

LT Profits · 08-05-16, 02:17 PM

Another MLB Addition

7 MLB Plays Friday

Reds / Pirates UNDER 7.5 -105 (Heritage)
Giants +131(5 Dimes)
Yankees -104 (Heritage)
Mets +109 (Heritage)
Rangers / Astros UNDER 8.5 -120 (5 Dimes)
Marlins -106 (Bookmaker)
Dodgers -112 (Heritage)

RavensFan2k3 · 08-05-16, 02:28 PM

I played Miami before I saw you were on it but I'm no so confident in it. How do you rate both starting pitchers?

Also how do you rate Redsox starter and Dodgers starter