MLB - Saturday, 7/30/16

LT Profits · 07-30-16, 07:03 AM

60%ers:

Toronto 60% (-150)
Cubs 69% (-223)
Mets 60% (-150)
Cleveland 61% (-156)
Boston 61% (-156)
Dodgers 70% (-233)

funnyb25 · 07-30-16, 09:03 AM

would you take under 7 +105 on phils?

LT Profits · 07-30-16, 09:35 AM

Originally posted by funnyb25

would you take under 7 +105 on phils?

Barely, yes. +105 is the absolute minimum I would take.

funnyb25 · 07-30-16, 09:37 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Barely, yes. +105 is the absolute minimum I would take.

I don't mind playing for a push on that number...just hate it when you have an even number and mine moves to a .5

brings a loss into play...

you know what I mean?

LT Profits · 07-30-16, 09:44 AM

Originally posted by funnyb25

I don't mind playing for a push on that number...just hate it when you have an even number and mine moves to a .5

brings a loss into play...

you know what I mean?

Absolutely know what you mean. Going from .5 to flat gives possibility of pushing, and many times betting the flat number is preferable at better odds, knowing going in you could be costing yourself a win by taking flat number. Totally different animal going from flat to .5 in wrong direction.

funnyb25 · 07-30-16, 09:47 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Absolutely know what you mean. Going from .5 to flat gives possibility of pushing, and many times betting the flat number is preferable at better odds, knowing going in you could be costing yourself a win by taking flat number. Totally different animal going from flat to .5 in wrong direction.

Last night for example was a funny one...You had braves under at 8 -110.....i locked it up at 8.5 -105...Huge movement for a total...Loved that play...Jenkens got out of some jams that brought my balls out of my ashole...was a very heavy wager...

LT Profits · 07-30-16, 09:57 AM

Originally posted by funnyb25

Last night for example was a funny one...You had braves under at 8 -110.....i locked it up at 8.5 -105...Huge movement for a total...Loved that play...Jenkens got out of some jams that brought my balls out of my ashole...was a very heavy wager...

That wasn't one of the scenarios I presented though as that moved .5 run the "right" way.

44 Mag · 07-30-16, 10:47 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

3 MLB Plays Saturday

Orioles / Blue Jays OVER 9.5 -105 (Heritage)
Phillies / Braves UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)
Twins -112 (Heritage)

YTD: 306-315-14, +0.61

Unusual over for you, more of an under type guy??? I know, I know each game on its own merit blah etc.

Spartak · 07-30-16, 11:11 AM

Hi LT, how do you rate pirates tonight.
10x and good luck with your plays.

PorkChop · 07-30-16, 11:13 AM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

Unusual over for you, more of an under type guy??? I know, I know each game on its own merit blah etc.

Thats what I noted too. Shocked to see on an over 9.5. Toronto .240 against Gallardo too.

44 Mag · 07-30-16, 11:15 AM

Originally posted by PorkChop

Thats what I noted too. Shocked to see on an over 9.5. Toronto .240 against Gallardo too.

I am sure somehow he based it on the pitching matchup, you know the xFip etc. LOL.

LT Profits · 07-30-16, 11:19 AM

3 MLB Additions

6 MLB Plays Saturday

Orioles / Blue Jays OVER 9.5 -105 (Heritage)
Yankees / Rays UNDER 7.5 -120 (DSI)
Phillies / Braves UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)
Rockies / Mets UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Twins -112 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks / Dodgers UNDER 7.5 +100 (Heritage)

Stammertime91 · 07-30-16, 11:26 AM

LT what's the logic on Rays/Yankees U7.5. I'm all over the Over and actually hoping it drops to 7 myself.

TheCaliforniaKid · 07-30-16, 11:28 AM

The Yankees have gone Under 12 of the last 13 games. I would imagine that stat is included.

funnyb25 · 07-30-16, 11:32 AM

Originally posted by TheCaliforniaKid

The Yankees have gone Under 12 of the last 13 games. I would imagine that stat is included.

That stat is NOT included. Each game based on its own merit...famous words of LT

LT Profits · 07-30-16, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

Unusual over for you, more of an under type guy??? I know, I know each game on its own merit blah etc.

2 below average starters + 2 good offenses = model total of 10.7

Plus Happ is a prime fade the rest of the year.

Stammertime91 · 07-30-16, 11:34 AM

Smyly 4.88 ERA at home
Eovaldi 5.3 ERA on the road

7 runs isn't a lot with those guys on the mound

LT Profits · 07-30-16, 11:35 AM

Originally posted by Spartak

Hi LT, how do you rate pirates tonight.
10x and good luck with your plays.

I only get Pittsburgh 55% (-122) on road

LT Profits · 07-30-16, 11:36 AM

Originally posted by Stammertime91

LT what's the logic on Rays/Yankees U7.5. I'm all over the Over and actually hoping it drops to 7 myself.

Both starters have better peripheral numbers than ERAs

LT Profits · 07-30-16, 11:37 AM

Originally posted by TheCaliforniaKid

The Yankees have gone Under 12 of the last 13 games. I would imagine that stat is included.

Ignore short term noise like that

LT Profits · 07-30-16, 11:40 AM

Originally posted by Stammertime91

Smyly 4.88 ERA at home
Eovaldi 5.3 ERA on the road

7 runs isn't a lot with those guys on the mound

ERA means nothing, see Post #20.

eddycash · 07-30-16, 01:08 PM

Twins no good now right? -125

funnyb25 · 07-30-16, 01:09 PM

Bluejays/Orioles no good now right?

eddycash · 07-30-16, 01:15 PM

Why wouldnt it be? Its the same still

ROFLcopter · 07-30-16, 01:18 PM

LT, have you ever tracked how totals set at a certain number do over the course of a season? For example, it seems like a lot of 9.5's go under, where as a lot of 7.5's go over

funnyb25 · 07-30-16, 02:05 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

2 below average starters + 2 good offenses = model total of 10.7

Plus Happ is a prime fade the rest of the year.

Starting when?

funnyb25 · 07-30-16, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

3 MLB Plays Saturday

Orioles / Blue Jays OVER 9.5 -105 (Heritage)
Phillies / Braves UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)
Twins -112 (Heritage)

YTD: 306-315-14, +0.61

Easy winner...not how model drew up on Happ though...we will take it

Slanina · 07-30-16, 02:23 PM

Clutch two out hits. And Upton blows! Nice way to start the day.

mikmik · 07-30-16, 02:25 PM

Nice hit Lt

44 Mag · 07-30-16, 02:29 PM

Originally posted by Slanina

Clutch two out hits. And Upton blows! Nice way to start the day.

Why the heck did they ever trade for Melvin Upton Jr.????? This guy sucks????? What were they thinking????

44 Mag · 07-30-16, 02:30 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

2 below average starters + 2 good offenses = model total of 10.7

Plus Happ is a prime fade the rest of the year.

Must start on his next start??? He looked pretty good today.

LT Profits · 07-30-16, 02:39 PM

Originally posted by eddycash

Twins no good now right? -125

No, model has 56% (-127)

LT Profits · 07-30-16, 02:40 PM

1 MLB 5-Inning Addition

7 MLB Plays Saturday

Orioles / Blue Jays OVER 9.5 -105 (Heritage)
Yankees / Rays UNDER 7.5 -120 (DSI)
Phillies / Braves UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)
Cardinals -125 (5 innings) (Heritage)
Rockies / Mets UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Twins -112 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks / Dodgers UNDER 7.5 +100 (Heritage)

italianbandit · 07-30-16, 03:39 PM

I like that under Phillies, good luck.