MLB - Saturday, 7/23/16

LT Profits · 07-23-16, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

I may tail you on that one. How do you feel about Pittsburgh's Tyler Glasnow?

Also like Arizona

I have Glasnow above average, thought he was pulled prematurely in his first start after allowing just his third hit of the game in the sixth innings and then his ERA took the hit when the bullpen blew up. But Nola looks like he is back based on his first start after the long rest and this line is too close to model line.

pilebuck13 · 07-23-16, 01:34 PM

Lt I'm sure you have Sampson graded extremely poor....Robbie Ray a prize not so much slight edge to home team here?

juicername · 07-23-16, 01:45 PM

Glad to see you're on the Snakes

Jhanderx · 07-23-16, 01:47 PM

I very LIKe Thanks LT PRofits

LT Profits · 07-23-16, 01:52 PM

Originally posted by pilebuck13

Lt I'm sure you have Sampson graded extremely poor....Robbie Ray a prize not so much slight edge to home team here?

Did you miss my D-Backs addition? And I have Arizona favored considerably at 59% (-144), I passed early because of the extreme variance. I then bit when the line rose while still leaving room to be +EV according to the model, which is one of my favorite situations.

And model likes Ray, he has a fine 3.65 xFIP that is considerably better than his ERA. It helps that he is striking out 10.52 guys per nine innings, which is eighth best in the Major Leagues.

pilebuck13 · 07-23-16, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Did you miss my D-Backs addition? And I have Arizona favored considerably at 59% (-144), I passed early because of the extreme variance. I then bit when the line rose while still leaving room to be +EV according to the model, which is one of my favorite situations.

And model likes Ray, he has a fine 3.65 xFIP that is considerably better than his ERA. It helps that he is striking out 10.52 guys per nine innings, which is eighth best in the Major Leagues.

Thanks for input on that good luck brother

funnyb25 · 07-23-16, 02:21 PM

The one time all season we aren't on Nola...Phils gunna win...

funnyb25 · 07-23-16, 02:32 PM

LT, shed some light if you will on the Royals over...Hamels been lights out on the road all season...Ventura been garbage everywhere, but with the over being a play and Hamels being solid how is Texas not a play? Odds are in your play range

LT Profits · 07-23-16, 02:51 PM

MLB Addition at 4:05 ET!

9 MLB Plays Saturday

Mariners +127 (Heritage)
Giants -107 (DSI)
Diamondbacks -124 (Bookmaker)
Brewers +152 (Heritage)
Tigers +162 (Heritage)
Dodgers -116 (Heritage)
Rangers / Royals OVER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Rangers / Royals OVER 4.5 -115 (5 innings) (Heritage)
Rays -101 (Heritage)

LT Profits · 07-23-16, 03:14 PM

1 MLB 5-Inning Addition

10 MLB Plays Saturday

Mariners +127 (Heritage)
Giants -107 (DSI)
Diamondbacks -124 (Bookmaker)
Diamondbacks -125 (5 innings) (5 Dimes)
Brewers +152 (Heritage)
Tigers +162 (Heritage)
Dodgers -116 (Heritage)
Rangers / Royals OVER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Rangers / Royals OVER 4.5 -115 (5 innings) (Heritage)
Rays -101 (Heritage)

funnyb25 · 07-23-16, 03:15 PM

LT drinking

funnyb25 · 07-23-16, 03:15 PM

My line is -120 first 5....

LT Profits · 07-23-16, 03:33 PM

Originally posted by funnyb25

LT, shed some light if you will on the Royals over...Hamels been lights out on the road all season...Ventura been garbage everywhere, but with the over being a play and Hamels being solid how is Texas not a play? Odds are in your play range

In the end model has Texas 56% (-127). Technically, that would require -115 for consideration, but even beyond that, I don't like RLM while seeing 74% on Hamels. I do like Texas offense to tee off on Ventura though, ultimately model has 9.4 game total and 5.1 FF. Both starters have worse 5-inning ratings than overall ratings (Hamels slightly so).

LT Profits · 07-23-16, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by funnyb25

My line is -120 first 5....

That is steep for 4.5, -115 is my drop-dead max.

funnyb25 · 07-23-16, 03:39 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

That is steep for 4.5, -115 is my drop-dead max.

Sorry, i wasn't clear...when i said my first 5 is -120..i was referring to dbacks ml 1st 5

JayDr3am · 07-23-16, 03:40 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

6 MLB Plays Saturday

Mariners +127 (Heritage)
Brewers +152 (Heritage)
Tigers +162 (Heritage)
Dodgers -116 (Heritage)
Rangers / Royals OVER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Rays -101 (Heritage)

YTD: 288-292-13, +5.84

LT making a 2nd half surge.. i like this. most dont come back from a deficit like that. props my man

funnyb25 · 07-23-16, 04:06 PM

Model doesnt account for corners 1 out in the first get nothing, thrown out at the plate in the 2nd, get nothing, corners 0 out in the 3rd get nothing...lol

Rich Boy · 07-23-16, 04:22 PM

FunnyB - How much do you bet per game?

funnyb25 · 07-23-16, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by Rich Boy

FunnyB - How much do you bet per game?

1 SBR Point..you?

LT Profits · 07-23-16, 05:04 PM

NO ACTION on Tigers, Sale scratched for White Sox

grease lightnin · 07-23-16, 05:38 PM

Thinking about hitting the brewers. You still like them at +132, LT?

I have not been betting mlb at all, but it looks like the cubs have been much better at home and lackey has been hit pretty hard lately...

funnyb25 · 07-23-16, 06:47 PM

Dbacks and Royals over gunna be 0-4

tradeout · 07-23-16, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by funnyb25

1 SBR Point..you?

well played

pilebuck13 · 07-23-16, 07:28 PM

Originally posted by pilebuck13

Lt I'm sure you have Sampson graded extremely poor....Robbie Ray a prize not so much slight edge to home team here?

Should have hit reds took over in first five instead but was almost going to pull trigger but with reds bullpen and Sampson starting I was scared honestly Arizona could come back here

funnyb25 · 07-23-16, 07:38 PM

Originally posted by pilebuck13

Should have hit reds took over in first five instead but was almost going to pull trigger but with reds bullpen and Sampson starting I was scared honestly Arizona could come back here

I should have played Reds first 5 and ML...LT doesnt have a clue...

LT Profits · 07-23-16, 07:42 PM

Originally posted by funnyb25

LT doesnt have a clue...

Have you been hanging out with Brock?

pilebuck13 · 07-23-16, 07:45 PM

Guy has a major clue solid handicapper he just follows his model long term he should turn profit smart if you bet every sport everyday

funnyb25 · 07-23-16, 07:49 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Have you been hanging out with Brock?

Every time I give you shit...you step it up....LOOK FOR A HUGE SUNDAY after a few losing days in a row...wait for it...you heard it here first...TAIL EVERYTHING TOMORROW

chabooky386 · 07-23-16, 07:52 PM

Originally posted by pilebuck13

Guy has a major clue solid handicapper he just follows his model long term he should turn profit smart if you bet every sport everyday

Lean on last game pile?

LT Profits · 07-23-16, 08:08 PM

Originally posted by funnyb25

Every time I give you shit...you step it up....LOOK FOR A HUGE SUNDAY after a few losing days in a row...wait for it...you heard it here first...TAIL EVERYTHING TOMORROW

What about TODAY? Looks like 4-4 with winning or losing day coming down to Rays.

grease lightnin · 07-23-16, 09:14 PM

Originally posted by grease lightnin

Thinking about hitting the brewers. You still like them at +132, LT?

I have not been betting mlb at all, but it looks like the cubs have been much better at home and lackey has been hit pretty hard lately...

Well I popped it for a unit even though you didn't respond.

Dogball · 07-23-16, 10:12 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

6 MLB Plays Saturday

Mariners +127 (Heritage)
Brewers +152 (Heritage)
Tigers +162 (Heritage)
Dodgers -116 (Heritage)
Rangers / Royals OVER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Rays -101 (Heritage)

YTD: 288-292-13, +5.84

huge day. You deserve it bro

funnyb25 · 07-23-16, 10:28 PM

Big bomb by the A's