MLB Totals

[RipVanWinkle]

I've started tracking MLB totals based on moving averages started in this thread at sbr:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicapper-think-tank/3258878-working-system-based-simple-fx-strategy-using-moving-averages-anyone-p2.html

Instead of tracking the results in that forum I'll post any plays that "qualify" here:

So far the W/L record for the games posted prior to game time is (4-2) in the above thread.

You can read the above link to learn more about what we are trying to do but in a nutshell I'm looking for teams that have played above or below season expectations and should be headed in the other direction.

I've taken moving averages from each team's last 15 games and compared them to a smaller recent sample. I've also compared those numbers to their overall season performance.

Here are a couple games that fit today. All overs

Over 9 Cincy/Atlanta
Over 7.5 Seattle/CWS
Over 11.5 Colorado/TB

[TechnicalTrader]

I've started tracking MLB totals based on moving averages started in this thread at sbr:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicapper-think-tank/3258878-working-system-based-simple-fx-strategy-using-moving-averages-anyone-p2.html

Instead of tracking the results in that forum I'll post any plays that "qualify" here:

So far the W/L record for the games posted prior to game time is (4-2) in the above thread.

You can read the above link to learn more about what we are trying to do but in a nutshell I'm looking for teams that have played above or below season expectations and should be headed in the other direction.

I've taken moving averages from each team's last 15 games and compared them to a smaller recent sample. I've also compared those numbers to their overall season performance.

Here are a couple games that fit today. All overs

Over 9 Cincy/Atlanta
Over 7.5 Seattle/CWS
Over 11.5 Colorado/TB

Great to see you in here. My two cents:

I still am a big fan of this approach, I'd just like to add a bit more of a fundamental analysis approach in order to filter out better results.

For example the SEA/CWS game, I really, really like the over play but LeBlanc only has three starts and 15.1 innings under his belt this season. Or let's assume you run in to an SP who is doing the complete opposite, where he is giving up way more runs than his X/total while the MA system is spitting out an over signal. Or the same thing with injured players, would you take a TOR over game if both Donaldson and Encarnacion were injured or are resting?

In other words, I believe the system should be a guide, or a first step in a filtering system. From here, nitpick your best plays. At the end of the day, I like all three of those picks and will be taking all three of them.

Thanks for you work and your picks!

[RipVanWinkle]

Great to see you in here. My two cents:

I still am a big fan of this approach, I'd just like to add a bit more of a fundamental analysis approach in order to filter out better results.

For example the SEA/CWS game, I really, really like the over play but LeBlanc only has three starts and 15.1 innings under his belt this season. Or let's assume you run in to an SP who is doing the complete opposite, where he is giving up way more runs than his X/total while the MA system is spitting out an over signal. Or the same thing with injured players, would you take a TOR over game if both Donaldson and Encarnacion were injured or are resting?

In other words, I believe the system should be a guide, or a first step in a filtering system. From here, nitpick your best plays. At the end of the day, I like all three of those picks and will be taking all three of them.

Thanks for you work and your picks!

Totally agree 100% on it being a guide. Would never recommend anyone play anything blindly. Would suggest everyone look at SP's, weather, injury, and any other factors they use to handicap a game.

The totals I'm posting are if both teams fit the same criteria. There are numerous other scenarios that can be explored based on recent starting pitching form (below or above expected performance), injuries, suspensions etc.

Initially I'm hoping for positive results when I find 2 teams, playing each other, giving the same indicators. Then I'll try and work off of single teams and explore the SP form like you've suggested.

Also team totals are an option as well if there are negative indicators with a starting pitcher in the match up.

[RipVanWinkle]

I also think looking at how each team has performed vs right handed/left handed starters is relevant. For example in TB/Colorado tonight. Tampa's OPS is 100 points higher vs left handed starters compared vs right handed starters. A factor I track in my personal total model as well.

All that's telling me is that if Tampa triggers an "over" play I'd be more interested in playing them vs a left handed starter than a righty.

[pairadux]

Thanks for getting this up. Like I had mentioned previously back in the original thread, I'm a fan of esoteric based strategies. I love how TT and RVW share their ideologies. Far more useful than these other threads that just say things like "TB -110" with nothing else added.

Let's rock this out!

[RipVanWinkle]

1 and 2 last night. Tracking (5-4)

5 games "fit" tonight. All overs again. A little leery on playing them for full units as most of them are above 9. I'll post them anyways for tracking.

Over 9.5 Cin/Atl
Over 9 NYY/Balt
Over 9.5 Det/Min
Over 8 Sea/CWS
Over 11.5 Col/TB

[RipVanWinkle]

0-5 last night. 5-9 tracking. Bad. Will add some more filters and see if that improves the numbers. I'll be back if I find some positive results through more testing.