DFoster Monday Picks/Lean 100-77-3, +44.86 units

[DFoster]

Just starting to look at some of the day's games:

Initial leans...

ATL ML
CIN/FLA under
TOR ML
TB RL
WAS ML
KC ML
CHC ML
STL ML
SD ML

I haven't looked at the totals or lines but I'll be listing official picks shortly.

[DFoster]

1st play:

BAL Orioles @ TB Rays
Eaton vs Kazmir
TB -1.5 RL -104 --- 2 units

The Rays just had a great series and have been solid at home since the beginning of last year. I think they're figuring things out. I look for Kazmir to throw a solid game after his poor outing against the Twins. The Rays were 8-1 against the O's at home last year...2 of those games were won by 1 run. With Adam Eaton on the mound, I don't expect this to be a close game. If Eaton has a solid game, I still expect a 5-2 score or better. The Rays are hitting .287 against right handers in their last 10 games while the O's are hitting a paltry .237 against lefties...

[DFoster]

TOR/CLE is a no play. I watched Carmona last outing and he looked solid with some of his old fastball movement. Tallet was shelled in his last outing and the Tribe have been hitting lefties at a decent clip this year. Toronto has been playing solid, especially at home...so I'm laying off of this game tonight.

[jellobiafra]

D -


I'm on TOR just based on principle. I got them at -110 last night and I see the line has moved in my favor. Also booked the CIN/FLA game at under 8 last night and it looks like it moved to 7.5. Nice. Booked the Braves at -122 and I think I'm getting favorable movement there too. I'm feeling good. One more - playing the Dodgers to win every game at home until they lose one. Booked them with a hedge to give me -1 on it. Jumping on late but just hoping for 1 win to pay for the inevitable loss. Like my chances with Doug Davis and the light hitting D'backs tonight.

Tailing you on the Rays. Fade Adam Eaton has been profitable for me so far. Your record is getting ridiculous. Keep 'em coming. Nice work man.

[DFoster]

CIN Reds @ FLA Marlins
Harang @ Johnson
CIN ML +145 --- 1.5 units
CIN RRL +234 --- .5 units

I love getting Harang at this price. He's been inconsistent but when he's on, he can beat any team. With the Marlins playing questionable at best, getting +144 with a team that's 9-4 on the road is a solid dog pick. Josh Johnson is solid, most definitely, and has the ability to shut down a relatively cold Red offense but Harang has the same ability. With the Red's staff throwing well, I like Harang to come out and try and match a few of the team's past starting perfomances. An under here looks solid as well...

[DFoster]

SF Giants @ CHC Cubs
Sanchez vs Dempster
SF ML +178 --- 1 unit
SF -1.5 RRL +272 --- .5 units

As a Cubs fan, this hurts but the value here looks solid. Sanchez has been solid this year while Dempster has struggled. The Cubs have looked pretty good in their last couple of games but with their bullpen struggling, and now tired, the Cubs could be in a tough spot if Dempster gets hit early. The Giants have struggled on the road this year, but traditionally, the Cubs don't have a home field advantage at Wrigley (for whatever reason). If Sanchez stays under control, this could be a tough game for the Cubs which makes the +178 line too good to pass up.

[theplagy]

Welcome back DF. GL today
I'm taking Royals ML, RL and going to see them tonight !

and royals are 9-0 when I go see em. I donno if that stats matter or not, just throwing it out there

[DFoster]

Welcome back DF. GL today
I'm taking Royals ML, RL and going to see them tonight !

and royals are 9-0 when I go see em. I donno if that stats matter or not, just throwing it out there

Not a bad stat. They're 0-1 when I've been at Kauffman this year. I haven't looked at that game yet, but I like the pitching matchup.

[Dbldown11]

The Giants are showing the most value of the day BY FAR. No way should the Cubs have been giving up that much juice in this spot.....which is why that line has dropped significantly

[DFoster]

PHI Phillies @ STL Cardinals
Blanton vs Lohse
STL TT over 4.5 -101 --- 1.5 units

I'm not a Blanton believer. If this line were set at 5, I'm not 100% I'd take it but I love the Cards chances of getting to 5 or more against a struggling starter. In their last 10 games against right handed starters, the Cards are averaging 5.80 run/game...and currently I'd throw Blanton in the bottom half of NL starters. WIth the Cardinals having a day off do to their postponed game, I see them having a good offensive day against a questionable starter like Blanton.

[DFoster]

BOS Red Sox @ NY Yankees
Lester vs Hughes
NYY ML -101 --- 2 units

The Yankees have been crushing left handers (.400 BA in their last 10 games, .444 in their last 5) and with Lester being inconsistent this year, I like the match up. Hughes has been dominating triple-A before having a very strong 1st start of the year and should do the same to a Yankees team hitting just .222 against right handers in their last 5 games. The Yankees are playing better ball in the last week while the Red Sox are coming off a tough series at Tampa. New York has done well at home, going 6-3.

[DFoster]

BAL Orioles @ TB Rays
Eaton vs Kazmir
TB TT over 5 -113 --- 1.5 units

I'll say the same as I have in previous fades of Adam Eaton...he's not good. The Rays are solid at home and have been hitting rather well. I think they give Kazmir some run support tonight and jump all over Adam Eaton. If Eaton holds his own, he should still give up 3 runs...and the Orioles bullpen should cover the rest. Either way, I like the Rays at home and think they cover this rather easily tonight.

[JIMMYG13]

New to the forum!! I wanted to know what would be the best site to make a reverse run line wager.. I use sportsbook.com and u can not do a reverse run line!!

[DFoster]

New to the forum!! I wanted to know what would be the best site to make a reverse run line wager.. I use sportsbook.com and u can not do a reverse run line!!

www.matchbook.com allows reverse run lines and will give you the best lines out there as it's a betting exchange and not an online bookie. I suggest it 100%.

[JIMMYG13]

Thanks foster!! I just started posting here but i have been checking this site for opinions alot!! I appreciate your plays and advice good luck to you!!

[DFoster]

PHI Phillies @ STL Cardinals
Blanton vs Lohse
STL 1st 5 innings ML -136 --- 1.5 units

I don't like the line a significant amount but after reviewing things, I see no reason the Cardinals shouldn't be leading this game after 5 innings. Lohse has been dominant at home and as I said before, I think Blanton is a below average starter. I don't trust the Cardinal bullpen and thus would only play a 5 inning line here as the Phillies are the best in the league after the 7th inning.

[DFoster]

Thanks foster!! I just started posting here but i have been checking this site for opinions alot!! I appreciate your plays and advice good luck to you!!

Thanks. Good luck!

[overdose.fR]

CIN Reds @ FLA Marlins
Harang @ Johnson
CIN ML +145 --- 1.5 units
CIN RRL +234 --- .5 units

I love getting Harang at this price. He's been inconsistent but when he's on, he can beat any team. With the Marlins playing questionable at best, getting +144 with a team that's 9-4 on the road is a solid dog pick. Josh Johnson is solid, most definitely, and has the ability to shut down a relatively cold Red offense but Harang has the same ability. With the Red's staff throwing well, I like Harang to come out and try and match a few of the team's past starting perfomances. An under here looks solid as well...

Hi DFoster,

What do you mean by RRL? I know it's the reverse run line, but at bet365 tehre is no option for that. Whick book does it offer it?

thanks

[DFoster]

Hi DFoster,

What do you mean by RRL? I know it's the reverse run line, but at bet365 tehre is no option for that. Whick book does it offer it?

thanks

I use www.matchbook.com which is great and provides the best lines around.

[Stock Fisher]

Hi DFoster,

What do you mean by RRL? I know it's the reverse run line, but at bet365 tehre is no option for that. Whick book does it offer it?

thanks

https://www.PINNACLESPORTS.COM

[laxdjock]

I use 5Dimes, which is one of the best baseball books out there.

[DMB40]

Dfoster,

Not sure if you ever play these props. Do you like the no run in 1st inning in the cin/fla?

[laxdjock]

SF +162 (1st 5), 1 unit.....jump on it.

I'll probably parlay it too if I find another solid game I like.

[DFoster]

Dfoster,

Not sure if you ever play these props. Do you like the no run in 1st inning in the cin/fla?

I'd lean toward no on that one but it's tough...especially when I don't know the line.

[DMB40]

-130 1st inning prop
sorry not to include that

[SportsChic]

hey foster...what do you think about the white sox tonight? Im thinking Greinke is bound to have a sub spectacular performance here shortly? I cant see Colon as a +160 either...let me know what you think babe...

[laxdjock]

I'm in at +171 ML. I have ridden Greinke so far this year, but getting Colon at +171 is worth the risk.

[SportsChic]

thanks lax..i think im making a play on them for sure

[SportsChic]

My parlay tonight

Penguins
Yankees
White Sox...

[laxdjock]

GL!

I'd worry about the Yanks, but I like the other 2 picks.

[DFoster]

-130 1st inning prop
sorry not to include that

Eh, seems a bit steep for a 1st inning run prop.

[DFoster]

I'm in at +171 ML. I have ridden Greinke so far this year, but getting Colon at +171 is worth the risk.

It's a high price for Greinke for sure...but it's one I'm leaving alone. Colon has gotten hit hard on the road and the Royals are on a roll. I wouldn't say a bet on the White Sox is a bad bet, but it's one I don't feel strong on and thus am sitting it out. Good luck!

[DFoster]

COL Rockies @ SD Padres
De La Rosa vs Correia
SD ML +111 --- 1 unit

I'll possibly post a write up if I get some time. Either way, I like San Diego at home as a dog tonight. With reports the De La Rosa is manning up (unlike Beckett) and pitching with a blister...I like the potential for control issues.

[laxdjock]

MLB
MIN/DET no score 1st inn -110, 1 unit
CWS ML +171, 1 unit
TEX/SEA u7.5 -110, 1 unit
MIL/PIT o7.5 +100, 1 unit
SF 1st 5 +162, 1 unit
SF -1½ +260, 1 unit
SF ML +171, 1 unit
CIN -1½ +225, 1 unit
CIN ML, SF ML, CWS ML, +1626, 1 unit

[DFoster]

MIL Brewers @ PIT Pirates
Gallardo vs Maholm
MIL ML -123 --- 1 unit

The line went down enough for me to throw a unit on the Brew Crew.