CK's Daily MLB Thread Leans for Monday 5/4/09

[cocknocker]

Here's what I like for Monday's action...

Reds+137 Johnson beat Santana last time out-Auto fade time
Reds-1.5 +230 RRL
Braves-120 HEAVY
Pale Hose +165
Nats/Astros under 4.5 -130 1st half Lannan's pitching. Enough said



Just as Greinke is a good pitcher, Colon is not a +160 pitcher. Colon is just as capable of shutting down the Royals lineup as Greinke is to shutting down the Pale Hose hitters. I'll take the live dog with the team that got embrrassed on national television last night. The Royals are due for their ace to take a loss now that he is the media darling. I may be wrong, but if I am right i want to get Crumbs for this play.

Harang is a very good dog as he has success against the Marlins going 4-1 over the last five. A record like that creates some doubt in my mind about whether the right team is favored in this matchup. Johnson beat Santana the last time he pitched. The public likes that and will pound the Marlins. CK doesn't go for the okey doke when on the hunt for Crumbs.

Vazquez and the Braves are getting wonderful early movement and I'm gonna ride the train as with only 33% of bettors on his side, the line went up from an opening of -113 to where it sits right now at -120. The Braves win a squeaker in this game. I also will put in a wager on the Braves to win the series as soon as the line pops up.

[Vonnegut]

Love the Reds tomorrow too CK. I have made some good cash playing the Reds the last two weeks or so.

[jellobiafra]

Nice. Good to see you on the Braves as well. I didn't like being on the other side of one your heavies the other day with NYM/PHI. I'm going with the under in the Reds game, but I agree that CIN is a very live dog tomorrow. NOt betting against Greinke right now though, lol. Guess Billingsley today didn't change your approach at all, eh? That's what I like about you though. Balls. Big ones. Go get them crumbs buddy.

Good luck!

[Dexter]

monday-

gallardo has an era/whip in his last 3 starts of .78/.65 and vs the pirates has a career 1.08/.92. the brewers are 4-0 in those games vs pitt. maholm has a career 4.60/1.50 vs milw and his team is 3-8 in those starts.

-brewers -130 (3x)

dempster in his last 3 starts has an era/whip of 6.00/1.39 and in his career vs the giants is 0-7 (team is 1-8) with an era/whip of 5.13/1.70

-giants +160 (1x)

in last years visit to la, davis went for 5er in 1inn. thats enough for me to keep riding the red hot dodgers at a not so bad price.

-dodgers -140 (1x)

in 2 road starts this year, colon has been torched for an era/whip of 10.3/1.97 - we all know how dominant greinke has become and the kc bats have been redhot the last 5 games avg'ing 8 runs per game.

-royals -1.5/+100 (2x)

king felix and millwood have been locked in the last 3 games, and should play to the low monday in safeco (a pitchers paradise)

-under mariners 7.5 (1x)

NBA Monday:

magic +3 (3x)

[PsychoQ]

hey ck i can take the reds at +133 should i wait to see if it goes up or take it now???

[cnleaf]

CK, u r chasing REDS umhhh!!!

[cocknocker]

I would say to wait on playing the Reds and then hit it up once the line gets even higher tomorrow.

[PsychoQ]

so your predicting it will go up??

[The_Kid]

Dex, I'm with you on the Giants. I'm going to wait till tomorrow morning to play this because I think the public will be all over Dempster and the Cubbies. There is no way Dempster deserves a -200 line. Cubs only hit .229 against lefties too and Dempster typically struggles against the Giants like you said.

[laxdjock]

CIN sticks out for me, though I haven't looked much farther than that thus far.

[shoebox]

monday

nats -145 3 units
buccos +130 2 units
twins +110 2 units



gl peeps

[cocknocker]

so your predicting it will go up??

I do believe that the line for Florida will go up, so yes.

[danrman]

totally down w/ the white sox pick ck.. thats my kinda logic..

[MVFC182]

Thanks for the leans this season CK, you've been in some great form

[peterpan19]

plays for today:
I just like too many games to start with...so I have to cut down..
ATL ...Javier should get the job done...

SF and CWS...one of the big dogs should hit here today...even if I like Dempster, but Sanchez could have a shot too...Colon +170 ?...greinke never pitched too good against CSW, but he is pretty good, but I will give it a shot here today

FLO -1... I really like Johnson and the Marlins in general...Cincy will go down today...

Min/Det Over 9...both bats are hot and the carreer numbers of pitchers are not so great...if not the bullpens will help me again today

so far so good...I will play all the above games for sure...now to the rest of game I like:
Nyy -1 (can they loose 4 in a row ?)
TB TT over (bats are hot and Eaton is pitching = money ?)
STL -1 (Ace vs Blanton = easy win for Cards ?)
LAA -1 (I had him yesterday and I will play him again today...plus Oak went to extra Innings...so I am not so scared about the Angels bullpen today...)
TX (...neither pitcher had success against either team so far...going with the hot bats here...)
which brings me to my next potential pick the Over 8... looks good on paper if you look at both pitchers history...

so 6 more potential play ?... good thing I still have a few hours to decide...

GL

[joanapoker]

No one is talking about the CK system, wich starting May (as CK advice us to start) is a wonderfull 27W-15L (with no chase).

Ck did u already chase any game?

Thx

[cocknocker]

Naw, joanapoker...Usually books don't offer live wagering until the end of basketball season when all of the gambling world has only baseball to concentrate on.

[ger25pic25]

No one is talking about the CK system, wich starting May (as CK advice us to start) is a wonderfull 27W-15L (with no chase).

Ck did u already chase any game?

Thx

What's the CK mlb system?

[Ringo]

Hey CK, I am reading that Harang is 3-2 with a 6.70 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Marlins. Where did you get the 4-1? Anyhow, will you still be playing the reds reguardless? thanks

[cocknocker]

Hey CK, I am reading that Harang is 3-2 with a 6.70 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Marlins. Where did you get the 4-1? Anyhow, will you still be playing the reds reguardless? thanks

Aaron Harang against the Marlins


9/22/08 7-5 win 7 innings pitched 4 earned
6/8/08 2-9 loss 5.5 innings pitched 7 earned
5/12/08 8-7 win 7 innings pitched 4 earned
8/24/07 5-3 win 7 innings pitched 3 earned
4/16/06 9-8 win 4 innings pitched 5 earned


So what I see is he is keeping his team in the games and although he is giving up some runs. The over is 4-1 in those starts too just FYI. Heck he even has two wins over Dontrelle Willis when he was Dontrelle Willis. The Reds are getting played homes. I want the Crumbs

[cocknocker]

There are some totals today that I just can't keep my eyes off of and I am going to have to take it and find out what the books know that the general public doesn't know. I am tacking on a small parlay as well.

Seattle/Texas under 7.5 -110
Arizona/Los Angeles over 9 -115
Arizona+120

[shoebox]

Adding to Harang, last year was irrelevant as he wasnt at his true form.......weight gain and overpitched.........Be carefull when looking at trends ck found the gem of the day!!

[peterpan19]

hell I know Harang is good...but Johnson is better...and even at -140 he is ... I will take FLO -1 no matter what...

GL

[Ringo]

Aaron Harang against the Marlins


9/22/08 7-5 win 7 innings pitched 4 earned
6/8/08 2-9 loss 5.5 innings pitched 7 earned
5/12/08 8-7 win 7 innings pitched 4 earned
8/24/07 5-3 win 7 innings pitched 3 earned
4/16/06 9-8 win 4 innings pitched 5 earned


So what I see is he is keeping his team in the games and although he is giving up some runs. The over is 4-1 in those starts too just FYI. Heck he even has two wins over Dontrelle Willis when he was Dontrelle Willis. The Reds are getting played homes. I want the Crumbs

Ok thanks for the info CK. Hope he pitches a gem for you tonight.. Love youre heavy play on ATL tonight by the way. I will be tailing you on that one. BOL to you on rest of youre plays.

[Smith]

CK: What do you think about the Cards at home today vs Phili? Seems to me like they win the pitching matchup hands down and have a better lineup. Should be a close game, but don't see any other outcome.

[TAPDATBOOK]

CK,

Are we still playing 1st inning score every game today?? Thanks

[ragiche]

Plays for tonight.

Cle ML (8x) My heaviest play for tonight.Carmona against Tallet,c'mon.We know that Carmona owns the jays, and Tallet has not proven himself yet in the rotation.I'm gonna go with the more experience arm here.I know that the Jays can hit but the Wahoos also can hit.

Atl RL (3x) Tailing CK. (L)

TB RL (3x) Chasing the upper bracket of their division is their goal.And what a good time it is Kazmir who always pitches well against the O's and they are at home. (L)

Mil RL (3x) Gallardo is for real. (W)

Was ML (3x) as i said last week.The nats will be a good bet this week not last week.Remember they've beaten the cards,and it's perfect time for them to win 2 in a row with their confidence are in a high volume. (W)

Sdg (10x)

NBA: Orl +3 Very Heavy C'mon,no need to explain. It's a PC Play.

[martinmobley]

Good call on the Royals last night CK!! That one definitely helped me out!

[hoop guru]

Marlins team total over 4 (-125)
-Marlins have roughed up Harnag in the past. Florrida scored 5, 9, 7, 3 and 8 runs against Harang and the reds. Marlins offense is in the stinks of late. I think they break out and score a bunch of runs tonite against the reds. Marlins also a better hitting team at home.

[moneyline]

"4/16/06 9-8 win 4 innings pitched 5 earned"

So Harang was a relief pitcher, CK? You don't get wins as a starter pitching 4 innings, ay least not in the major leagues ...

Career vs. FLA -- he is 3-2 ...

Misinformation, CK, watch out for the misinformation.

[kmarinouofm]

hope guru i agree with the marlins pick.. team totals are my thing and i jumped all over it this morning when i saw it...

[SoonerGreg]

Booked:
Reds +140
Rangers +140

Leans:
Brewers -1.5 +115

[kmarinouofm]

ok my baseball plays for today

braves (ck pick)
Marlins over 4
White sox team total over 3 heavy - The white sox have lost 2 in a row and now come to KC to face Greinke.. Who is due for a good old fashioned shelling.. The white sox are going to be bitter about loosing the last series... the Royals are at home and feeling good behind Greinke who has been amazing this year so far.. but history against Chicago tells a different story ( 4-8 with a 5.01 ERA in 15 starts against Chicago)

[cocknocker]

"4/16/06 9-8 win 4 innings pitched 5 earned"

So Harang was a relief pitcher, CK? You don't get wins as a starter pitching 4 innings, ay least not in the major leagues ...

Career vs. FLA -- he is 3-2 ...

Misinformation, CK, watch out for the misinformation.

Relief pitcher or not he was on the hook that day for the decision, moneyline. Misinformation, moneyline, watch the misinformation. If a pitcher is the one who gets the decision then it is what it is.

And secondly why haven't you started your own thread since you seem to know every f*ckin' thing? I thought you were smart. It turns out you're not.Because I'll be damned if you still haven't figured out that you aren't contributing anything to this thread except the simple shit like I quoted above.WTF does that have to do with YOUR plays. And please don't come here talkin' about you're fading me, becaue if you have been that would explain why you haven't been around for a couple of weeks. The lining in your pocket is full of holes, Mr. Misinformation

[laxdjock]

White sox team total over 3 heavy

I was looking at this, though I can only get o3.5 -105....which I don't like as much.