MLB - Sunday, 7/3/16

[LT Profits]

3 MLB Plays Sunday

Cubs / Mets UNDER 6.5 +102 (5 Dimes)
Giants / Diamondbacks UNDER 9 +100 (Heritage)
Rockies / Dodgers UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)


YTD: 239-254-11, -8.16

[LT Profits]

60%ers:

Cleveland 61% (-156)
Tampa Bay 60% (-150)
Washington 77% (-335)
St. Louis 63% (-170)
Seattle 61% (-156)

Model likes Cleveland, but I hate the suspiciously low line with the RLM. Currently no line on Washington, should be interesting with model having -335.

[gpet1984]

60%ers:

Cleveland 61% (-156)
Tampa Bay 60% (-150)
Washington 77% (-335)
St. Louis 63% (-170)
Seattle 61% (-156)

Model likes Cleveland, but I hate the suspiciously low line with the RLM. Currently no line on Washington, should be interesting with model having -335.

Got Seattle last night at -124 on one of my sites. Also took Kluber -125 couldn't pass up. What are you getting for the Mets today

[jz833]

Any insight on Angels. Look tempting as dogs after scoring 21

[gpet1984]

60%ers:

Cleveland 61% (-156)
Tampa Bay 60% (-150)
Washington 77% (-335)
St. Louis 63% (-170)
Seattle 61% (-156)

Model likes Cleveland, but I hate the suspiciously low line with the RLM. Currently no line on Washington, should be interesting with model having -335.

Also what are you getting for Pit. I'm seeing some value at +140

[LT Profits]

Got Seattle last night at -124 on one of my sites. Also took Kluber -125 couldn't pass up. What are you getting for the Mets today

Cubs 53% (-113)

Pitchers about even but Cubs with edge in offense vs. L/R

[LT Profits]

Cubs 53% (-113)

Pitchers about even but Cubs with edge in offense vs. L/R

Scratch that, Syndergaard actually has nice edge, but edge for Chicago offense vs. L/R is bigger.

[gpet1984]

Scratch that, Syndergaard actually has nice edge, but edge for Chicago offense vs. L/R is bigger.

What about Pit at +140

[LT Profits]

Any insight on Angels. Look tempting as dogs after scoring 21

Fact that they scored 21 last night means nothing in and of itself other than slightly helping offensive rating.

With that being said, Boston 51% (-104), so practically right on real line.

[gpet1984]

Scratch that, Syndergaard actually has nice edge, but edge for Chicago offense vs. L/R is bigger.

I think Syn is better then Lester buy a descent margin. He pretty much had 1 bad game all year and has been flat out nasty in the rest.

[juicername]

I'm so torn on Miami/Atlanta for the late game. No home/away advantage as the game will be played in N.C. I kind of like the Fish at -142. Since they were not in the 60% I would guess the line is pretty spot on?

[juicername]

I think Syn is better then Lester buy a descent margin. He pretty much had 1 bad game all year and has been flat out nasty in the rest.

Doesn't he have some kind of elbow issue and that affected him in the last game? Might be a concern today as well. Edit: Syndergaard that is.

[gpet1984]

Doesn't he have some kind of elbow issue and that affected him in the last game? Might be a concern today as well.

I don't think the Mets would put him out there w/ any major issue

[LT Profits]

Also what are you getting for Pit. I'm seeing some value at +140

Just so-so value for now (not enough for me yet).

Oakland 57% (-132)

[LT Profits]

I'm so torn on Miami/Atlanta for the late game. No home/away advantage as the game will be played in N.C. I kind of like the Fish at -142. Since they were not in the 60% I would guess the line is pretty spot on?

I actually lean Braves but not enough.

Miami 56% (-127)

Fort Bragg seems like a fair park, 331 down line, 387 to alleys and 405 straightaway center. Unknown X-Factor is ball-carry. Also the region is Braves Country, but that does not matter with no tickets made available to the public, so truly neutral.

[44 Mag]

Any insight on Angels. Look tempting as dogs after scoring 21

Fact that they scored 21 last night means nothing in and of itself other than slightly helping offensive rating.

With that being said, Boston 51% (-104), so practically right on real line.

O'Sullivan will give up 5-6 runs probably before the 5th inning. Guy is a bum. LOL. Bet the TT over for LAA.
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[gpet1984]

60%ers:

Cleveland 61% (-156)
Tampa Bay 60% (-150)
Washington 77% (-335)
St. Louis 63% (-170)
Seattle 61% (-156)

Model likes Cleveland, but I hate the suspiciously low line with the RLM. Currently no line on Washington, should be interesting with model having -335.

LT at what pricve do you need to bet Hamels today. Pretty sizable pitching adv there no? Seems like line is trending against Texas for some reason.

[LT Profits]

LT at what pricve do you need to bet Hamels today. Pretty sizable pitching adv there no? Seems like line is trending against Texas for some reason.

I only get Texas 59% (-144)

[gpet1984]

I only get Texas 59% (-144)

Line just dropped to -136. Still not enough for ya I guess.

[juicername]

I only get Texas 59% (-144)

Wat? OK, that's it, I'm joining the "model is broken" camp now . My highly unscientific estimation have Rangers at like -170 with the on the road revenging a loss factor, which is huge.

[Nateboogy]

This Rangers team is coming back down to earth. Due for huge regression.

[klemopixx]

This Rangers team is coming back down to earth. Due for huge regression.

Not with Hamels pitching. Hamels is on his usual mid summer tear, have to go with the Rangers today.

[l7ustin]

Rangers havent lost a series in last 15 series. I doubt that ends against a bad twins team with Hamel pitching

[gpet1984]

Rangers havent lost a series in last 15 series. I doubt that ends against a bad twins team with Hamel pitching

Everyone on Texas is kind of scaring me now lol. I took -136 pitching adv just to big even for Hamels on the road.

[LT Profits]

Line just dropped to -136. Still not enough for ya I guess.

I almost never lay more than -130 on anything, this has been discussed before. I bet TO WIN 2.5% of bankroll 99% of the time, so once you get to -130, you are talking about risking 3.25%, which is a bit rich for me for one game considering I bet every day.

But hey, I would not knock anyone that does not mind laying the juice.

[LT Profits]

Wat? OK, that's it, I'm joining the "model is broken" camp now . My highly unscientific estimation have Rangers at like -170 with the on the road revenging a loss factor, which is huge.

You DO realize that model price of -144 currently has Texas as +EV at current price?

As for coming off a loss, that means nothing to the model, nor does winning series, etc... Don't get caught up in extraneous stuff like that and just focus on current game on its own merit.

(If I had a dollar for every time I have explained that)

[juicername]

You DO realize that model price of -144 currently has Texas as +EV at current price?

As for coming off a loss, that means nothing to the model, nor does winning series, etc... Don't get caught up in extraneous stuff like that and just focus on current game on its own merit.

(If I had a dollar for every time I have explained that)

I hate the RLM so will probably not add more on Texas.

Hehe I know your model don't factor in such things as I bolded above. I agree on some things like sweeping a series/getting swept etc, but coming off a big loss/win I do take into account and there are several SDQL queries supporting that and I do believe that teams react differently to such results. Each to their own though .

[44 Mag]

[QUOTE=LT Profits;25956642]You DO realize that model price of -144 currently has Texas as +EV at current price?

As for coming off a loss, that means nothing to the model, nor does winning series, etc... Don't get caught up in extraneous stuff like that and just focus on current game on its own merit.

(If I had a dollar for every time I have explained that)[/QUOTE]
You could retire. LOL.

[eddycash]

Are the unders no good and the new numbers now? 8.5 az and 7.5 dodgers

[LT Profits]

Are the unders no good and the new numbers now? 8.5 az and 7.5 dodgers

Dodgers 7.5 is good through -110
Dbackks 8.5 I'd want at least +105

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Additions

7 MLB Plays Sunday

Indians -111 (5 Dimes)
Cubs / Mets UNDER 6.5 +102 (5 Dimes)
Reds / Nationals UNDER 8 -105 (Heritage)
Brewers / Cardinals UNDER 8.5 -110 (Heritage)
Giants / Diamondbacks UNDER 9 +100 (Heritage)
Rockies / Dodgers UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Rockies / Dodgers UNDER 4 +100 (5 innings) (5 Dimes)

[LT Profits]

Since I now see basically 50/50 betting action on Indians/Blue Jays and it is not true RLM, I took the bait on Cleveland at what looks like an insanely low price. I hope I don't regret it!

[homerbush]

You DO realize that model price of -144 currently has Texas as +EV at current price?

As for coming off a loss, that means nothing to the model, nor does winning series, etc... Don't get caught up in extraneous stuff like that and just focus on current game on its own merit.

(If I had a dollar for every time I have explained that)

i would say you kind of contradict yourself when you start talking about rest of season projections when we were 20 games in to the season having some kind of merit for one day only but hey to each their own.

[slayer14]

under 6.5 looks buried already in the cubs game ffs

[JJJ]

everytime I bet cory loser kluber he loses