MLB - Friday, 7/1/16

JayDr3am · 07-01-16, 01:06 PM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

There's no correlation between beating the closing number and actually winning the bet though. But I guess it's better to lose a bet that's +120 than -120

definitely.. if i could never eat juice and just get paid juice all the time i would. those juice dollars add up big time

Yazworm91 · 07-01-16, 01:43 PM

LT I know you already said something about value on Angels. Has Wright not been pitching over his head? When is the last time a knuckle baller was -240? Lol

LT Profits · 07-01-16, 01:46 PM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

I do understand that, hence the high volume of plays. How fo you feel about people who spot bet but for large units?

Same theory applies, beating closing line should be profitable over time as the number of plays add up.

LT Profits · 07-01-16, 01:49 PM

Originally posted by Yazworm91

LT I know you already said something about value on Angels. Has Wright not been pitching over his head? When is the last time a knuckle baller was -240? Lol

It seems he certainly has looking at his peripherals, I am just not very anxious to bet a dead team like the Angels.

JJJ · 07-01-16, 01:52 PM

No twins today I know you usually go against perez

eddycash · 07-01-16, 02:22 PM

Rays under 8.5 -122 bro?

LT Profits · 07-01-16, 02:31 PM

Originally posted by JJJ

No twins today I know you usually go against perez

Added in Post #34

LT Profits · 07-01-16, 02:31 PM

Originally posted by eddycash

Rays under 8.5 -122 bro?

I would cut off at -120

LT Profits · 07-01-16, 02:32 PM

Another MLB Addition

6 MLB Plays Friday

Rays +107 (Heritage)
Tigers / Rays UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
White Sox / Astros UNDER 9 -110 (Heritage)
Twins +100 (Heritage)
Brewers / Cardinals UNDER 8.5 -110 (Heritage)
Rockies / Dodgers UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)

Nateboogy · 07-01-16, 03:25 PM

In Dodgers I have U7.5 Even. Should I wait or hop on that?

Ghenghis Kahn · 07-01-16, 03:30 PM

is kevin cash throwing games? did you see what he did in the 9th yesterday?

RavensFan2k3 · 07-01-16, 04:10 PM

Originally posted by JayDr3am

definitely.. if i could never eat juice and just get paid juice all the time i would. those juice dollars add up big time

I mean ofcourse, but I rather bet a game at -120 that I'm confident will win than bet a game at +120 that has a chance at winning. Who cares about beating the closing number if you're going to lose just as many games as you win. I'm not looking to be up come October, I'm looking to be up by the end of the week.

eddycash · 07-01-16, 04:29 PM

I play all solid plays up to -130

JayDr3am · 07-01-16, 04:29 PM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

I mean ofcourse, but I rather bet a game at -120 that I'm confident will win than bet a game at +120 that has a chance at winning. Who cares about beating the closing number if you're going to lose just as many games as you win. I'm not looking to be up come October, I'm looking to be up by the end of the week.

+ and - shouldnt havent anything to do with confidence, just because its favored doesnt mean its going to win. but im sure you knew that already. there are just as many + plays that hit as often as a favorited play.. and by add up i mean even after a week or 2 you will see a significant difference with eating juice and getting paid off juice.. most of my plays are on the + side and i feel just as confident or even more VS a favorited play.. trust me i know, i like to seeing results by the END of the day you know what i mean. if you're going to get value IN ANYTHING its going to be baseball. the softest lines known to man

LT Profits · 07-01-16, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by Nateboogy

In Dodgers I have U7.5 Even. Should I wait or hop on that?

Looks like a pass unless you can somehow find a 7.5 +110

LT Profits · 07-01-16, 05:04 PM

1 MLB 5-Inning Addition

7 MLB Plays Friday

Rays +107 (Heritage)
Tigers / Rays UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
Angels +180 (5 innings) (Heritage)
White Sox / Astros UNDER 9 -110 (Heritage)
Twins +100 (Heritage)
Brewers / Cardinals UNDER 8.5 -110 (Heritage)
Rockies / Dodgers UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)

rc86 · 07-01-16, 05:17 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Same theory applies, beating closing line should be profitable over time as the number of plays add up.

i hope all the clueless, ignorant haters are reading this and hopefully one day it will click in their heads...

RavensFan2k3 · 07-01-16, 05:31 PM

Originally posted by JayDr3am

+ and - shouldnt havent anything to do with confidence, just because its favored doesnt mean its going to win. but im sure you knew that already. there are just as many + plays that hit as often as a favorited play.. and by add up i mean even after a week or 2 you will see a significant difference with eating juice and getting paid off juice.. most of my plays are on the + side and i feel just as confident or even more VS a favorited play.. trust me i know, i like to seeing results by the END of the day you know what i mean. if you're going to get value IN ANYTHING its going to be baseball. the softest lines known to man

I never said + or - has anything to do with confidence. My point was people get too caught up in value and ignore winners. I'm mainly a dog better, but I'm not about to bet a dog that has a 38% chance of winning because it has a nice big + number.

funnyb25 · 07-01-16, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

I never said + or - has anything to do with confidence. My point was people get too caught up in value and ignore winners. I'm mainly a dog better, but I'm not about to bet a dog that has a 38% chance of winning because it has a nice big + number.

if a huge number wins 38% of the time we would be rich though

funnyb25 · 07-01-16, 05:49 PM

I think a lot of people in here have me misunderstood,,,and i will admit it, my way of expressing things is terrible. The value is nothing i have been criticizing..not even close...the only thing i ever have criticized is the same pitcher being a play every time he takes the mound when all he does is get shelled...that's all it has ever been...believe me...i wish LT nothing but the best..its just frustrating the stubbornness to adjust. Like it was pointed out...this isnt my thread...so i will restrain from future criticism of plays...

Chavs · 07-01-16, 06:06 PM

Originally posted by funnyb25

I think a lot of people in here have me misunderstood,,,and i will admit it, my way of expressing things is terrible. The value is nothing i have been criticizing..not even close...the only thing i ever have criticized is the same pitcher being a play every time he takes the mound when all he does is get shelled...that's all it has ever been...believe me...i wish LT nothing but the best..its just frustrating the stubbornness to adjust. Like it was pointed out...this isnt my thread...so i will restrain from future criticism of plays...

Two things:
1) He adjusts after 5 starts. But, that doesn't mean his model is perfect. Obviously, there is no perfect model. Otherwise we would all be rich.
2) If you don't like the pitcher, there is a simple solution. Just don't bet that specific game.

Good luck to you my friend.

funnyb25 · 07-01-16, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by Chavs

Two things:
1) He adjusts after 5 starts. But, that doesn't mean his model is perfect. Obviously, there is no perfect model. Otherwise we would all be rich.
2) If you don't like the pitcher, there is a simple solution. Just don't bet that specific game.

Good luck to you my friend.

Good luck to you as always....

JayDr3am · 07-01-16, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

I never said + or - has anything to do with confidence. My point was people get too caught up in value and ignore winners. I'm mainly a dog better, but I'm not about to bet a dog that has a 38% chance of winning because it has a nice big + number.

yeah of course there is alot of stipulations when playing majority dogs.. the other night KC was a 19% dog and cashed it by a long shot.. it depends how you read the game.. to hell with percentages sometimes man, its all about good reads/gut.

l7ustin · 07-02-16, 12:27 AM

martin perez burying you