MLB - Monday, 6/27/16

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Plays Monday

Rockies +125 (Heritage)
Blue Jays / Rockies UNDER 12 -105 (Heritage)


YTD: 223-242-9, -12.75

[LT Profits]

60%ers:

Cleveland 62% (-163)
Cubs 72% (-257)
San Francisco 63% (-170)

[inns007]

Any tips for Dodgers game?

[44 Mag]

2 MLB Plays Monday

Rockies +125 (Heritage)
Blue Jays / Rockies UNDER 12 -105 (Heritage)


YTD: 223-242-9, -12.75

Not expecting much of a slugfest with this two offenses in the thin air???? Or is the air another non-factor??? I know your boy Jon Gray is pitching, but I didn't think you had much use for Marco???

[LT Profits]

Not expecting much of a slugfest with this two offenses in the thin air???? Or is the air another non-factor??? I know your boy Jon Gray is pitching, but I didn't think you had much use for Marco???

Model has 10.7, so 12 is good enough at -105 or less. Off course Coors air is a factor, that is built into the model's ballpark factors.

[RollinDo]

Under in Atlanta looks solid along with Tribe ML or -1.

[mikefan1034]

My book has the under 12.5 lol how ridiculous is that

[LT Profits]

My book has the under 12.5 lol how ridiculous is that

The 12.5 is -120 though. I'd rather have 12 -105, although I would play the 12.5 at -115 or less (which I do not see at any top book).

[LT Profits]

Any tips for Dodgers game?

No, nothing at all as model is in sync with real line on both side & total. Dodgers 51% (-104), 8.3

[mikefan1034]

The 12.5 is -120 though. I'd rather have 12 -105, although I would play the 12.5 at -115 or less (which I do not see at any top book).

Think this goes over easy. We will see totals at 15 pretty soon

[PorkChop]

Thoughts on Phillies/D'Backs Under 9 & FF Under 5

[RavensFan2k3]

I was going to post in yesterday's thread if Rockies was a play today because I know I liked it. Let's get it today

[LT Profits]

Under in Atlanta looks solid along with Tribe ML or -1.

Cleveland side seems priced perfectly, see my -163, so no opinion either way. And I get 8.5 total, would actually lean Over if line drops to 7.5.

[LT Profits]

Thoughts on Phillies/D'Backs Under 9 & FF Under 5

I lean toward both Unders, have 8.1 / 4.3

Roof is Closed.

[PorkChop]

I lean toward both Unders, have 8.1 / 4.3

Roof is Closed.

On both. Wish me luck brother.

BOL with yours

[PorkChop]

Have to play Toronto/Colorado FF Under 6.5 if playing Under 12 for the game too right? Better value in the FF with that extra .5

[trillz]

Any idea why the Cleveland line dropped LT?

[RavensFan2k3]

Today is a tough card

[PorkChop]

Any idea why the Cleveland line dropped LT?

Originally Kluber.

[LT Profits]

Have to play Toronto/Colorado FF Under 6.5 if playing Under 12 for the game too right? Better value in the FF with that extra .5

It is not an "extra .5" because 5 innings is more than half of 9 innings.

[LT Profits]

Originally Kluber.

No, Bauer was already named when the line opened -170 at Pinny yesterday.

[LT Profits]

Any idea why the Cleveland line dropped LT?

No idea, see nothing yet regarding injuries or resting players.

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

3 MLB Plays Monday

Rockies +125 (Heritage)
Blue Jays / Rockies UNDER 12 -105 (Heritage)
Phillies / Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 -105 (Heritage)

[LT Profits]

I know the Arizona Under is now only pennies off the model but I still like the play.

[iloseagain]

how the hell can you like rockies against estrada???

Guy has given up 32 hits in his last 68.2 innings..... I just dont get the point of fading this guy. Toronto has won 7 of his last 10 starts. Last game they lost and he gave up only 2 hits in 6 innings.. Seems insane to me but to each their own

4.2 hits per 9 innings in his last 10 starts.. Good luck

[funnyb25]

how the hell can you like rockies against estrada???

Guy has given up 32 hits in his last 68.2 innings..... I just dont get the point of fading this guy. Toronto has won 7 of his last 10 starts. Last game they lost and he gave up only 2 hits in 6 innings.. Seems insane to me but to each their own

4.2 hits per 9 innings in his last 10 starts.. Good luck

LT thinks gray is the greatest thing since sliced bread. Hall of famer if he gets out of colorado. He posts about this every start

[iloseagain]

LT thinks gray is the greatest thing since sliced bread. Hall of famer if he gets out of colorado. He posts about this every start

i know but i see other people liking colorado too... i just dont get it.. its either toronto or nothing for me here

[LT Profits]

how the hell can you like rockies against estrada???

Guy has given up 32 hits in his last 68.2 innings..... I just dont get the point of fading this guy. Toronto has won 7 of his last 10 starts. Last game they lost and he gave up only 2 hits in 6 innings.. Seems insane to me but to each their own

4.2 hits per 9 innings in his last 10 starts.. Good luck

Very simple.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/mlb-baseball/free-picks/rockies-upset-mlb-picks-home-hosting-blue-jays-a-73292/

Also note that I got Colorado +125. Take a look at the current line.

[iloseagain]

i mean thats all well and good but you cant just continue to bet against future regression because its impossible to know when that regression will come.. hes had 15 starts already and he hasnt regressed a bit.. Meanwhile, you LOVE the peripheral numbers for Gray, yet the rockies are 4-6 in his last 10 starts.. Who gives a shit about their peripheral numbers when their team doesnt win games when they start... you are betting on the winner of the game, not the peripheral numbers of the 2 pitchers.. Anyways...

And the current line doesnt mean shit. Line movements in favor have been an absolute death sentence this year.

[funnyb25]

i mean thats all well and good but you cant just continue to bet against future regression because its impossible to know when that regression will come.. hes had 15 starts already and he hasnt regressed a bit.. Meanwhile, you LOVE the peripheral numbers for Gray, yet the rockies are 4-6 in his last 10 starts.. Who gives a shit about their peripheral numbers when their team doesnt win games when they start... you are betting on the winner of the game, not the peripheral numbers of the 2 pitchers.. Anyways...

And the current line doesnt mean shit. Line movements in favor have been an absolute death sentence this year.

Lol..xFIP all that matters

[iloseagain]

Lol..xFIP all that matters

haha apparently...

[LT Profits]

xFIP is a better PREDICTOR than any mainstream stat, the key to gambling is to be ahead of the curve when the regression hits. I've been using the same approach for years and nobody complained last year. There is no reason not to expect a turnaround this year either given my history, -12 units is not a lot to overcome.

[eddycash]

I like rockies and under but missed the good lines, probably passing today

[MMA_Oracle]

any opinion on the Nats/Mets?

[LT Profits]

any opinion on the Nats/Mets?

I love Syndergaard but model curiously only has Mets 54% (-117). Probably being held down by state of the Mets offense these days.