MLB - Thursday, 6/16/16

[LT Profits]

3 MLB Plays Thursday

Athletics +111 (5 Dimes)
Yankees / Twins UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
Padres +153 (5 Dimes)


YTD: 194-212-9, -12.22

[BOA12]

3 dog day. bol LT

[44 Mag]

3 MLB Plays Thursday

Athletics +111 (5 Dimes)
Yankees / Twins UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
Padres +153 (5 Dimes)


YTD: 194-212-9, -12.22

What is this, no Nola today @ +129 ????

[LT Profits]

What is this, no Nola today @ +129 ????

Yes I am having a hard time resisting, but the state of the Philadelphia offense is keeping me away. Nola can't win 0-0.

[44 Mag]

Yes I am having a hard time resisting, but the state of the Philadelphia offense is keeping me away. Nola can't win 0-0.

Well, then I figure you for at least under 8. unless you think Toronto puts up 9, which even I doubt.

[LT Profits]

Just one 60%er today:

Dodgers 65% (-186)

[LT Profits]

Well, then I figure you for at least under 8. unless you think Toronto puts up 9, which even I doubt.

Model has 7.6, too close

[l7ustin]

Ur model hates the Rangers. Id like to see your +/- units betting on them. I think you would be even on the season if you just avoided them

[mikefan1034]

3 MLB Plays Thursday

Athletics +111 (5 Dimes)
Yankees / Twins UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
Padres +153 (5 Dimes)


YTD: 194-212-9, -12.22

11 straight overs for twins yet u bet under lol y don't u just avoid the game

[juicername]

Ur model hates the Rangers. Id like to see your +/- units betting on them. I think you would be even on the season if you just avoided them

Hate for Rangers + Twins love = disaster this season.

[BOA12]

Think Nyy is the play, Sabathia 19-9 vs MIN ,and the twins are the twins.

[pilebuck13]

How bout them Mariners T?

[BOA12]

Like under today at TB

[LT Profits]

How bout them Mariners T?

Yeah I love Paxton but model only has Seattle 51% (-104), practically on real line.

[LT Profits]

Ur model hates the Rangers. Id like to see your +/- units betting on them. I think you would be even on the season if you just avoided them

Rangers record should not be as good as it is, their starting rotation is 28th out of 30 Major League teams in collective xFIP at 4.61. That tells me I will probably continue to fade Texas. They are the opposite of the Astros, who should have a better record based on their starting rotation. They are 12th at 4.05 but Keuchel, McHugh and McCullers are all in the 3.00s.

[lilpete]

thanks LT i should start tailing u cuz i kno ur due for a run

[Redscot]

Rangers record should not be as good as it is, their starting rotation is 28th out of 30 Major League teams in collective xFIP at 4.61. That tells me I will probably continue to fade Texas. They are the opposite of the Astros, who should have a better record based on their starting rotation. They are 12th at 4.05 but Keuchel, McHugh and McCullers are all in the 3.00s.

Agree with much here LT, my only concern is that Oakland Col., is a park tailor made for Lewis. It's spaciousness and HR suppression jibe well with his flyball heavy results and his inflated hr/fb %. In 103 career ip's in Oak he has a .255 babip against him, and a 2.96 era (for whatever that's worth, not an era guy but couldn't find adv. stats on that). His FB/SL repertoire seems to match up pretty well against Oak, who are in the bottom third of league atm in effectiveness against both pitch's. The Rangers wRC+ of 124 (2nd in all of baseball over last 2 weeks) gives me further pause here.

Anyway, not hating on the pick, just thought I'd get those thoughts out. Hope Mengden turns in a gem for ya!

[dirtycash66]

LT i need your opinion on tonights NBA game 6. who do you like Bron or curry?

[l7ustin]

lewis is one of the all time underrated pitchers. guys had a quiet very solid career. rangers all around better and as tossing a rookie. its not a horrible play. i just disagree w it

[LT Profits]

lewis is one of the all time underrated pitchers. guys had a quiet very solid career. rangers all around better and as tossing a rookie. its not a horrible play. i just disagree w it

If having a career 4.68 ERA, 4.43 FIP and 4.37 xFIP makes you one of the all time most underrated, where could I go to sign a contract? And I take it you are a Rangers fan?

[LT Profits]

LT i need your opinion on tonights NBA game 6. who do you like Bron or curry?

I think Warriors close it out tonight, not that it matter because even if they don't, they would not lose Game 7 at home. I simply cannot imagine them losing 3 straight games to the Cavs including 2x in Oakland.

[dirtycash66]

I think Warriors close it out tonight, not that it matter because even if they don't, they would not lose Game 7 at home. I simply cannot imagine them losing 3 straight games to the Cavs including 2x in Oakland.

Thanks

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

4 MLB Plays Thursday

Athletics +111 (5 Dimes)
Rangers / Athletics UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
Yankees / Twins UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
Padres +153 (5 Dimes)

[greypimps]

last game cavs plus 6 was a gift, no green, are u kidding me gsw still giving 6.. you cant have bogut the giant in there whos freakishly slow and useless with barnes. anyway i think cavs will take the home game.. warriors have a hard time adjusting to away game. just like game 3 n hey win game 4.

[l7ustin]

guy pitches in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the league. he chews up innings. he is very clutch look up his post season numbers.
hes not clayton kershaw but the guy very consistently pitches 6-7 innings and gives up 2-3 runs and gives his team a chance to win. he doesnt cost a lot. very underrated piece of why the rangers have been successful the last ten years. guy got the win against the hated yankees to send the rangers to their first ever world series. then he threw like 8 innings 2 runs against sf and got the first ever win in the world series (i believe the only one we got that year). he got a win against stl too. like i said hes underrated but yes i am a fan

[Snake24]

Model has 7.6, too close

LT, how close of a +/- variance from the number do you require for your plays? Hope this make sense. You're a bright individual, I'm sure you know what I'm asking for.

[funnyb25]

Model is beyond broken

[funnyb25]

In all seriousness though...how many units do you need to be down to adjust this thing?

[44 Mag]

4 MLB Plays Thursday

Athletics +111 (5 Dimes)
Rangers / Athletics UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
Yankees / Twins UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
Padres +153 (5 Dimes)

Other than 1st pick, this could be a winning day.

[LT Profits]

LT, how close of a +/- variance from the number do you require for your plays? Hope this make sense. You're a bright individual, I'm sure you know what I'm asking for.

Rule of thumb is 10% on Money Lines and 0.8 with totals, but I am very loose with that and use a lot of judgement.

[mikefan1034]

Model is beyond broken

Why are u still following

[LT Profits]

Model is beyond broken

Na, we are not even halfway through season yet and I have had a lot of brutal late beats. Worst thing you could possibly do is overreact this early in the year.

[LT Profits]

In all seriousness though...how many units do you need to be down to adjust this thing?

What exactly is there to adjust? The methodology is always the same every year, key is to stay on top of ratings adjustments, which I have been evaluating every five starts or so.

[l7ustin]

If having a career 4.68 ERA, 4.43 FIP and 4.37 xFIP makes you one of the all time most underrated, where could I go to sign a contract? And I take it you are a Rangers fan?

karma punishing you for disrespecting the cobra.

perfect game through 7

[LT Profits]

karma punishing you for disrespecting the cobra.

perfect game through 7

Even if he completes it, he'll always be a 4.00+ xFIP guy that eats a lot of innings. That is commendable but it is not as if he is unique in that regard.